Chapter 524: Tang Tian'er's Tang Thoughts
Meng Shuang also accompanied Bao Feiyang to the United States, although the Tang family's base camp is in Mexico, there are also a large number of industries in the United States. It is much more convenient to travel from home to the United States than to Mexico.
On the plane, Bao Feiyang opened a stack of information, as early as the first half of this year, he asked Fang Xia ceramics to take out special attention and collect information on international finance, especially Mexico.
Mexico is one of the three major countries in North America, with a land area of nearly 2oo square kilometers and a population of more than 100 million.
It was not until the current president, Carlos Salinas de Goattari, who came to power in 1988, began to implement a series of economic reforms that revitalized Mexico's economy.
Carlos Salinas de Gotari, a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University, pursued policies that included privatizing a large number of state-owned enterprises to make the government more relaxed, opening up the economy to join the North American Free Trade Area, and actively promoting a national mutual aid program to carry out large-scale poverty alleviation and help the backward areas to solve economic and social welfare problems......
During his tenure in office, the economics doctor was well-known at home and abroad, and Carlos had previously actively sought to become director-general of the World Trade Organization, but a series of events at the end of his tenure forced the former Mexican hero into exile.
Degtari's privatization reform objectively activated the vitality of the Mexican economy, but at the same time, it also caused a strict problem, that is, wealth was more concentrated, the gap between the rich and the poor increased, and the phenomenon in the privatization process was very strict, which eventually led to the Chiapas Indian peasant uprising that was born at the beginning.
The uprising did not overthrow the Mexican government, but it also reflected the country's political instability, which was assassinated in March. A few months later, the ruling party secretary was assassinated, and Degotari's brother was implicated in a criminal case, and Degothari, who is believed to have contributed to corruption.
All kinds of phenomena have been demonstrated. The situation in Mexico is not stable, but at least on the surface, Mexico's current economic figures are not bad.
Mexico's peg to the U.S. dollar, which has successfully reduced the risk of domestic inflation, has also contributed to the overvaluation of the peso. The consequence of the overvaluation is that Mexico's commodity prices are not competitive internationally, exports are hit, and the domestic population is more inclined to imports, resulting in a surge in imports. Mexico has a current account deficit of more than $20 billion, while its foreign exchange reserves are just over $4 billion.
From the general ledger. Although there is a huge deficit in the current account, Mexico also has a surplus in the capital account, with a net inflow of $30 billion in the capital account and a current account deficit of only $4.1 billion in '93.
However, many people ignore that most of these foreign capital inflows are relatively speculative short-term capital. Short-term capital enters the country in the form of indirect investment, accounting for two-thirds of all foreign capital.
The Mexican government should be well aware of this situation, but they have few options to stabilize the economy, insisting that the peso does not depreciate while trying to attract foreign capital, and has introduced a short-term bond pegged to the US dollar. A large proportion of the annual inflow of foreign capital is made up of such bonds.
According to statistics, the Mexican Government has already issued a total of $30 billion in short-term bonds, of which more than $16 billion will mature in the first half of next year, while the Mexican Government has only a few billion dollars in its hands, and they will certainly not have enough dollars to repay these dollar-linked bonds.
The Government of Mexico is currently facing a dilemma. Continuing to peg the US dollar will inevitably lead to a larger and larger current account deficit, and then we will have to rely on the inflow of foreign capital, but the risk of accumulation of an irrational capital structure will become greater and greater, and this is a time bomb that does not know when it will explode.
If the peso's linked exchange rate to the US dollar is abandoned. Allowing the peso to value will certainly lead to the outflow of foreign capital from Mexico, because the ultimate benefit of foreign capital must be converted into local currency, and once the peso depreciates, the value of the peso will be less, and once they suffer losses, they will lose confidence in the peso and will inevitably flee.
The Mexican government is now certainly considering how long the current debt and capital structure can be maintained, and what the impact of the peso's depreciation will be, and the trade-offs between the two will determine the ultimate policy trade-off.
It should be said that many people, including the Tang family, have been aware of the problem of the Mexican economy, but they do not have a clear understanding of when this kind of problem will explode and what kind of process it will explode.
People tend to get lost under the surface of prosperity and ignore all kinds of warning messages.
However, Bao Feiyang remembers very well that soon after Mexico's new president, Ernesto Sedillo, officially took office, he announced the depreciation of the peso. Although Sedillo did not give up the peso's pegged exchange rate with the dollar all at once, and the depreciation was only 15 percent, it made the already skeptical investors panic, frantically selling pesos and snapping up dollars, causing the peso to plummet all the way, falling by half in three days, and almost all of Mexico's foreign exchange reserves were consumed at once, and a menacing financial crisis suddenly came when everyone was caught off guard.
Every financial crisis will cause countless families to be ruined, even if it is a powerful consortium, it may collapse because of the untimely response, but at the same time, there will be many people who have made a lot of money.
The outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis is imminent, even if Bao Feiyang wants to save the world as a person, it is impossible, because the root cause of the crisis has already been planted, unless Mexico can get hundreds of billions of dollars in aid at once, resolve short-term debt and exchange risks, and buy time for economic reform.
However, before the economic crisis erupted, countries and international organizations, including the United States, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, would not provide substantial assistance.
Of course, Bao Feiyang doesn't have this ability.
Since there is no way to change it, he thinks about using this opportunity to make a lot of money, anyway, even if he doesn't make money, there will be people speculating, and it will have no impact on the crisis.
In fact, the layout in the early stage has been completed, and if there is no preparation in the early stage, when the crisis breaks out, there is no chance to speculate.
If you want to carry out financial speculation in the financial crisis, it is very risky, and the income is not like a million profits as people imagine, in fact, the real economy that has fallen to the bottom may be a better choice, so Bao Feiyang also needs the help of the Tang family.
After more than 14 hours of flight, the flight landed at the San Francisco airport at 7 p.m. local time, and since there was a sixteen-hour time difference between Canton and Los Angeles, the San Francisco date was still the day they came out, and the time was even reversed by two hours.
Of course, it was already eleven o'clock the next morning.
At the exit of the airport, a pair of beautiful sisters stood there, talking and looking forward to it, completely ignoring the gaze of the surrounding *.
"It's coming!" Tang Mi'er suddenly stood on tiptoe and waved her arms excitedly. In fact, although there are a lot of people at San Francisco Airport, the two sisters Tang Mier and Tang Tianer are standing there, like two dazzling flowers, and almost every passenger who walks out can't help but be attracted to the past. Bao Feiyang and Meng Shuang were no exception, and they saw them at once.
"Sister Meng Shuang, welcome to San Francisco!" Tang Mi'er warmly grabbed Meng Shuang's arm, and at the same time gave Bao Feiyang a blank look. Bao Feiyang couldn't help but smile a little embarrassedly, the last time Tang Mi'er went to Xijing, Tang Tian'er asked him to take care of it, but this quirky little girl didn't know whether it was intentional or unintentional, and often used the girl's charm to "seduce" him from time to time, causing a lot of embarrassment, so that he could only avoid her later, plus there were more things at work during that time, except for taking her around two days ago, and then there were very few opportunities to meet.
What made him even more embarrassed was that Tang Tian'er's attitude towards him was also a little cold, and he was probably angry that he didn't take good care of Tang Mi'er in the first place.
Tang Mi'er pulled Meng Shuang to chirp out, and when she arrived at the side of the passage, Tang Tian'er beckoned, and soon an atmospheric black Cadillac came over, and the driver came down to help Bao Feiyang put the luggage into the trunk, and when Bao Feiyang put the luggage back, now the three women had occupied the position in the back row, and he had to sit in the co-pilot's seat.
"Sister Meng, Bao Feiyang, originally my grandfather was going to pick you up, but he went to Houston for a temporary matter, and he may not be able to come back until tomorrow, you will rest in the hotel tonight, the room has been booked, it is in the Hilton of the financial district, and it is also very close to Chinatown. After the car moved, Tang Tianer said in the back row.
Bao Feiyang glanced at the rearview mirror, and suddenly Tang Tian'er's attitude was a little strange, not only was her attitude towards herself relatively cold, but even if she was towards Meng Shuang, she was not as enthusiastic as before.
Bao Feiyang couldn't help but be a little strange, what does Tang Tian'er mean by this? Could it be that the Tang family wants to put on a score and give themselves a dismount? But it doesn't make sense, the cooperation between Fang Xia Ceramics and the Tang family is very smooth, and the relationship between the two sides is in the honeymoon period. Bao Feiyang came this time and greeted the Tang family in advance, mainly to discuss how to deal with the current economic situation in Mexico, which can be said to be a special invitation from the Tang family after listening to the news relayed by Tang Tian'er.
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