895 Prisoner's Dilemma, Dog Eats Dog

When Chen Hui and Lin Jing were in the middle of the fierce battle, at this moment, Temasek Building, the trading room was brightly lit, and there were two groups of traders on the night shift here!

One group is the trading team led by Adam, which is currently methodically closing a long position of 7 million lots on EUR/USD.

Since the beginning of today's Asian market, they have begun to close their positions, and now it is the American market, and they have gradually increased the number of closed lots.

They were notified to close all long positions on EUR/USD in about a week, that is, five trading days!

This means closing at least 1.4 million lots of long positions on EUR/USD every day!

Adam's trading team appeared quieter.

And Hu Jianghu's trading team is now excited, tonight is the most critical night for New York copper, they have been fighting on New York copper for many days!

It's midnight in Singapore, but the morning session in New York has just ended!

"How is the morning session?" After finishing the operation, Hu Jianghu looked at the traders who were all slumped on the sofa chairs, and couldn't help but ask with some wicked taste.

Recently, he had not had a good rest, and he had a fever when he got up, so he went to the hospital, took a few bottles of hanging needles, and the fever subsided, so he hurried back to the trading room of Temasek Building!

After a long time, his assistant Luo Yu straightened up and replied: "Tiger head, the market in New York in the morning is too complicated, New York copper first rose 200 points from 320.00 to 322.00, and then New York copper in this 200 points range, back and forth high-speed shocks, the trading volume is huge!"

But New York copper still fell at the close of trading in New York morning! It is currently at 321.00! I guess there are two new big money in the competition!"

"Although we are waiting, we can feel how fierce the competition in the market is!!"

In the previous few hours, he was in charge of Hu Jianghu's work, and he was so nervous, walking back and forth, with cold sweat behind his back!

Hearing him say this, several other traders nodded their heads, apparently agreeing with him.

When Hu Jianghu heard this, he remembered the prisoner's dilemma that Chen Hui had told him, and said with a slight smile: "You don't need to panic, now they are fighting fiercely, which is also a good thing for us, which shows that one side is a big short like us!" Looking at everyone's puzzled expressions, Hu Jianghu continued: "Don't forget, we are the biggest short in New York Copper!, we hold the largest short list in the market!

Although the fever had just subsided, his head was very clear!

Speaking of this, Hu Jianghu continued to laugh and said: "Previously, New York copper fell sharply for 4 consecutive trading days!

From the 333.00 level to the 320.00 level of the plummeting 1300 points! Let our account go from a floating loss of $5.25 billion to a floating profit of $17.5 billion! That moment it means that we have won the initial victory of this duel, we have 7 million short orders, and these short orders are all opened at a high level!

Correspondingly, there are also 7 million long orders are also opening positions at a high level! Now these bulls are almost unbearable, so they start killing each other!

This morning, New York copper rose and fell wildly, and it repeatedly fluctuated so many times in the 200-point range, which shows that an institution with a large number of long positions is closing its position and selling its long positions, so that the market is flooded with a huge amount of selling orders, so New York copper is under strong selling pressure!

The other side is also bulls, they also hold a large number of long positions, but they are not willing to let New York copper plummet, so they buy frantically!

Both of them hold huge long positions, but one can't bear it because of the previous big drop in New York copper, one closes the position, and the other keeps increasing the position!

It's their dog-eat-dog moment!

At this time, Hu Jianghu laughed and said, "Yes!", after a pause, he shouted: "Tell me to go down and continue according to the original plan of the chairman!"

At this moment, his admiration for Chen Hui is simply a five-body throw!

These are all things that Chen Hui expected when he went first!

So I have been letting Hu Jianghu increase his positions at a high level, increase his position, increase his position, and increase his position, and at the highest time in the account, he lost more than 5.5 billion US dollars!

But then they managed to eat all the buyers at the high level, and these buyers at the high level were all trapped!

Now a lot of bulls are starting to retreat, cut positions, stop losses!

Because the New York copper connection fell sharply by 4 transactions, although it fluctuated for a few days, but there was no upward trend, the bulls who were hedged at the high level were bold and began to stop losses!

Tonight it's a big money stop-loss out!

But there is also a big money that is crazy to support the New York Copper!

The two are fighting each other!

At this moment, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., in the trading room of Mt. Fuji,

Goro Harano looked at his four assistants and asked in a deep voice, "What is the situation in New York today?"

The team he is responsible for is long New York copper this time, holding a huge long position!

For a long time, they have been fighting with the bears in the market, but before the New York copper fell sharply for 4 consecutive trading days, they also took this opportunity to continue to buy long!

He came a little late tonight because his two twin daughters were sick and had the flu for the past two days, so he stayed with his two daughters in the hospital until they got better tonight.

The four of them just hummed, and they were too tired to speak. After a long time, an assistant reluctantly straightened up and replied weakly: "Yuan Yejun, the market in New York in the morning is too complicated, we finally increased the long position of hundreds of thousands of hands, when I listened to your orders before, I felt that the trading was nothing more than this, but now it seems that this is indeed not the case." ”

Hearing him say this, the other three assistants nodded their heads, obviously agreeing with his words.

Unlike usual, today Yuan Ye let go of their hands and let them lead the team to operate, and the quota is 1 million hands, which makes several assistants tremble. Even if they had discussed the strategy yesterday, as soon as they arrived in the market, they really found that the strategies they had formulated could not keep up with the changes in the market. Just when they thought that the price would be controlled within the set range, there was a sudden large sell order, which instantly smashed the price of copper futures, and at that time, several of them reacted quickly, directly throwing 100,000 long orders to the market to barely pull the price up to the 321.00 position.

Now that a few people think about it, they are still a little frightened. Because once the price falls below $320.00, then all their strategies will be invalid.

At this time, Yuan Ye saw that the trend of New York copper was temporarily stabilized, and said with a slight smile: "Actually, you have done a good job. It not only implemented the original strategy, but also successfully coped with the unexpected situation in the market. If I'm not mistaken, the previous frenzied suppression should have been the rhythm of a certain bulls taking the opportunity to close their positions, and if it weren't for your tough efforts to stop their decline, the price and possibly fall by $320.00. ”

Although he seems to be relaxed, he is very nervous inside, and there is a little chill behind his back, and now he feels more and more wrong!

"So according to Yuan Ye-kun's opinion, what will happen to the market in New York in the afternoon?" It took a long time to come to his senses, and one of the assistants, who seemed to be more clever, took the opportunity to ask.

Now the long positions they hold are too large, if they can't support it this time!

At present, they hold a total of 5 million long positions, with an average position of 325.00, and every 100 points of fluctuation is a profit and loss of $1.25 billion, and a total of 400 points are currently floating, with a total floating loss of $5 billion!

Goro Harano said with some nonsensical answers: "Judging from the crazy suppression in the morning session of New York, the number of lots sold by that bearish force should be higher than the number of lots you entrusted, so there was a sudden surge on the market." But later. After you have repeatedly bought frantically at the 320.00 position, they have no strength to continue to suppress New York copper for a while, and the bears saw the opportunity to suppress the copper price when the price of copper futures slowed down, making the price repeated. But you didn't notice that when the price of copper rose to $320.00. The price was quickly suppressed, which naturally had reasons for you to stop buying, but more importantly, there was another new bearish force in the market that was strongly suppressed at the high level, otherwise the copper futures price would definitely break through $322.00. ”

The four assistants looked at each other. They didn't expect that there would be so many doorways in the fleeting market. After all, their perspective is only the peak and valley of a certain wave, and the changes at the bottom and peak are not within the scope of their attention.

In fact, people who focus on the peaks and troughs are often the ones who have the ability to turn the market around, and their boss Yuan Ye is just that.

An assistant lowered his head and thought about it, and after a long time, a sentence suddenly popped up: "Yuan Yejun, you haven't said how to operate in the afternoon market in New York?

Goro Harano pondered for a while and said, "No, now we already hold a long position of 5 million hands, no matter how high it is, we will touch the warning line, if something happens, we can't bear it!"

Speaking of this, he paused for a moment and continued: "What I'm more worried about now is that the guys who hold long orders like us, if they were frantically closing positions before, it will be bad!"

"Alas, the big guys who have been working with us before, I am not afraid at that time, I am afraid that those guys who hold long orders like us will not be able to bear it, and then close the position on a large scale, and we will be bad at that time!"

"Hopefully, my worries are just worries, and the real situation is not what I feared!"

The assistants were convinced: "Yuanye-kun is really thorough, so I can't wait to be convinced!"

"Harano-kun's worries won't happen!"

"yes, it won't happen!"

But they don't know that what they feared is already happening!

It's midnight in Singapore, but in New York, it's noon, and Elliott Management, a hedge fund with $73 billion in assets under management, said to his assistant Jerry, "What's going on with copper in New York now? How many long positions did we close in the morning?"

The Elliott Fund has always been the majority of New York copper, and it has been long New York copper a long time ago, but New York copper has been falling and has suffered serious losses!

For so long, in order to prevent New York copper from plummeting, they are carefully closing their positions every day, and not long ago they closed all the high-level bulls of 2 million hands, and it was their previous liquidation that caused New York copper to fall sharply for 4 consecutive trading days! These long orders for high-level positions made them lose $2 billion!

"Mr. Elliott, we closed a long order of 500,000 lots of New York Copper!"

Now they still hold a long position of 4 million lots of New York copper, which opened an average of 324.00 and is currently floating by 300 points, totaling $3 billion!

"Elliott, are we considering closing the position?" Jerry asked worriedly.

Now the market is very supportive, and he feels that he can continue to hold it!

Although he was Elliott's assistant, he was also one of the partners of the firm.

Elliott's face was calm, and he couldn't see any emotional fluctuations, and after hearing Jerry's words, he said slowly, "Jerry, don't be stupid!"

"Now the losses are more than we can accept, we don't have much money in New York copper this time, and the brokers are also making margin calls, we have done the wrong trend, now we have to hurry up and close the position while the loss does not exceed 10 billion US dollars, cut the meat!"

"But ......"

"Nothing!" Elliott suddenly became agitated, pointing to the computer screen and shouting in a hesitant voice, "Jerry, my good fellow, don't you see?

"Today's support is very strong, the sooner we have to close the position!"

"I regretted it before! It's long overdue to empty our long positions on a large scale!"

"Jerry, do you see it? Tomorrow is the time for the market to reverse, and I dare to boldly predict that the price will definitely fall to $300.00 tomorrow, or even lower. Don't look at the fact that we are losing less now, so we continue to want to get away with it! By this time tomorrow, I can guarantee that we will lose even more on our books!

Jerry, Jerry, these indicators and candlestick charts are telling you that New York copper is about to enter a bear market! We can't be stupid anymore!"

"A lot of off-court bears are coming in right now!"

"I'm going to retreat quickly and escape with a broken arm!"

Looking at Elliott, who suddenly lost his temper, Jerry sighed secretly and returned to his seat sullenly. He knew very well in his heart that Elliott was also under huge psychological pressure, otherwise he would not suddenly become like this.

"How's that, man, what did he say?" Jerry had just taken his seat when a trader next to him immediately stepped up and asked with some anxiety as he pouted at Elliott's place.

Jerry shrugged his shoulders and spread his hands, reluctantly repeating Elliott's words again.

Hearing Jerry say this, the other traders started to talk about it!

"Tonight could be a pivotal moment for New York copper!"

"Alas, maybe we fought too long before!"

"The timing of closing the position is very bad!"

"If we close our position at this critical moment, it is equivalent to smashing the New York copper into collapse!"

"If we don't smash it, there will be other bears who will smash it!"

"Now there are more and more bears!"

"And what about the bulls??How many more?You tell me!"

I'm afraid only God knows about this question. Jerry leaned heavily into his chair and thought to himself.

And at this moment, Quantum Fund, och-ziff capital management, two sigma investments, and Siberia capital management have begun to order traders to increase their positions and short New York copper!

They all found that New York copper had completely changed its trend after New York copper fell sharply for four consecutive trading days, so they began to enter the market to short New York copper!

"When the market opens, smash it for me!"

"Short New York copper!"

"At the beginning of the afternoon, you will smash the plate for me!

"Boys continue to add to their short positions in New York copper!"

After Chen Hui and Lin Jing finished their passion, the two of them lay quietly, at this time Chen Hui took out his mobile phone again and looked at the trend charts of various varieties, at this time Chen Hui looked at the market trend chart of New York copper and smiled slightly at the corner of his mouth.

Lin Jing asked curiously, "What's the matter? Have you made a few hundred million?"

Chen Hui shook his head and said, "A few hundred million, that's too small!"

"Oh?" Lin Jing suddenly propped up his tired body, and came over to look at the trend chart of New York copper, and at this time Chen Hui analyzed Lin Jing.

Lin Jing's eyes rolled, and she said curiously: "Hearing you say this, wait for the market in New York, it is destined to fall?"

Chen Hui laughed dumbly, and then explained rather speechlessly: "There are various possibilities in the market, in fact, sometimes the contest is the contest of people's hearts, I will take game theory to talk about, one of which is a classic example, that is, the prisoner's dilemma." That is, two prisoners are held in different cells, and they can choose their optimal strategy through different conditions, and this optimal strategy is to confess. ”

"Game theory? I've heard of some of it, it seems that an economist in Princeton has a special book, and this futures operation is also related?" Lin Jing frowned and thought about it, and said with some uncertainty after a long time.

"The current situation is somewhat similar to the prisoner model, where our group chooses to cooperate with other bulls. It is possible to produce an equilibrium result, which is optimal for all parties. Instead, choose to 'punish' another participant. Although one or two times will be detrimental to both sides, in the repeated prisoner's dilemma, both sides will eventually cooperate because of this 'punishment'. In the final analysis, in addition to the fundamentals, futures operation is a contest between people's hearts, and how to choose the optimal strategy in a complex situation is the application of game theory in futures. Of course, if we operate with a full position, we can completely leave out other participants in the market. As the only one who makes decisions, there will be no gambling at that time. Chen Hui shook his head slightly and said proudly.

Lin Jing nodded as if she didn't understand: "Oh, then how much do you earn this time?"

Chen Hui smiled faintly and said, "Hundreds!", this time the short position of 7 million hands, once the New York copper plummets, I don't know how much to earn!