Even Executive Vice Governor Xu Shengjiao, although he also met a core figure of the Chen family, he only met and had a meal, and did not talk about any substantive projects, and Bao Feiyang was just a department-level cadre.

Gao Jingliang didn't entangle with Bu Guangguang, Luo Jianzhong and others anymore, he hurriedly walked over and reported to Han Qiwen, although Han Qiwen was dissatisfied with Bao Feiyang, but in front of the results, he naturally knew what was most important.

Originally, the matter was not clear, and Han Qiwen didn't know much about the situation, so he shouldn't be in a hurry to report to the top, but Gao Jingliang said that this matter had already been known to others, and Han Qiwen still found an opportunity to report to Xu Shengjiao.

Hearing the news, Xu Shengjiao was slightly stunned, and soon said with a smile: "This bag is flying, it always has to surprise people." ”

"Mr. Bao, you mean that Southeast Asia's economy may have a systemic crisis or even a major collapse in the near future?"

In a palatial luxury box in a five-star hotel in Malaysia, there sits a middle-aged man who looks wise and has a bit of Confucian business style, and he is Chen Yongzhi, the head of Malaysia's Dingfeng Group. Listening to Bao Feiyang's words, he frowned, looked at Bao Feiyang sitting opposite him with deep eyes, and didn't believe it in his heart, at this time, the Southeast Asian business circle was prosperous and was in the heyday of rapid development, according to Bao Feiyang, the entire Southeast Asian financial economy is likely to face a big collapse, which is too alarmist. After pondering the words for a while, Chen Yongzhi asked rhetorically.

"Yes, I think the financial system in Southeast Asia is likely to collapse, both internally and externally, and the situation in Southeast Asia is very similar to that of Mexico in 1993. Bao Feiyang keenly caught the suspicious signal in Chen Yongzhi's words, but still nodded calmly without changing his face, originally in his plan, he did not plan to mention the potential economic crisis in Southeast Asia in front of Chen Yongzhi so soon, but Chen Yajun directly singled out this problem when he expressed relevant doubts.

For the future trend of Southeast Asian economy, Bao Feiyang let Fangxia Ceramics Group in the layout at the same time, but also with their own friendly business partners have had an analysis of the situation in this aspect of the exchange, which includes not only the original and their own business cooperation in the old partner of the Mexican Tang family, but also in the later Southeast Asian business cooperation gradually deepened the Javanese Huang family, and the same Southeast Asian business circle rich businessman Huang Chengcheng and Chen Yajun in private but close friends, these two girls who have been playing together since childhood, and the girls of the same age who are usually okay often get their heads together, I don't know what to talk about, It seems that she and Chen Yajun should have talked about this issue, of course, as a good friend, it is understandable to kindly remind her of her concern to recover the huge losses she may face in the future, and it is impossible for Bao Feiyang to blame Huang Chengcheng for leaking any trade secrets, and the Chen family is likely to become another new partner of her in Southeast Asia soon, and in this regard, it is also her own person, so naturally there is nothing to hide.

Since Chen Yajun has now asked bluntly on the spot in front of Chen Yongzhi and Bao Feiyang, Bao Feiyang naturally can't continue to hide it, but very frankly said to Chen Yongzhi, the current head of Dingfeng, who was sitting opposite him with a frown frowning and thinking: "Mr. Chen is an expert, the Chen family, including most of the Chinese businessmen, started from industry, and industry is the foundation for a family and a country to pass on, but now the economic environment is different, and the flow of international capital is becoming more and more rapid. The scale is getting bigger and more pervasive, and many Chinese businessmen, including the Chen family, have also become involved in the financial industry. ”

"Financial markets are turbulent, and big ups and downs are inevitable, and Southeast Asian countries, including Malaysia, have relatively little control over financial markets, and the liberalization process is relatively high. This is not only an advantage, it can use international capital more flexibly to attract foreign investment, but it also brings some risks, such as market volatility caused by large inflows and large outflows. ”

Chen Yongzhi lowered his head, lightly tapped the table with the knuckles of his fingers, and said with a slight deep groan: "The situation in Malaysia is different from Mexico, when the financial crisis occurred in Mexico, it was largely due to the instability of the domestic political situation and the Mexican government's haste in the reform of the currency system, I think the Malaysian government will not do this, and our domestic political situation is relatively stable, and the intervention in the exchange rate is not so strict." ”

Bao Feiyang smiled, knowing that Chen Yongzhi, the head of the huge business empire who sat in front of him and had always had his own ideas and courage, was still skeptical, and still did not believe in his analysis of the future situation in Southeast Asia. He knew that it would not be easy to convince such a shrewd and wise group that had experienced countless storms and waves, and whose experience and insight were different from others, and he just followed the other party's train of thought and further analyzed: "The currency reform of the Mexican government is only the fuse, and the reason for the reform is that they saw that the currency was overvalued at that time, so they hoped to take the initiative to devalue it to alleviate the problems of their own economy." And the overvaluation of the currency is obviously a common problem in your country and some other countries in Southeast Asia. ”

There is a famous "flying geese pattern" in the development of Asian economy, the so-called "flying geese mode", that is, the first to develop Japan is the leader of the wild goose array, after the development of Japan, its primary industry began to gradually transfer to the surrounding countries in a gradient, Singapore, Taihu, Xingang, Xinhan and other "four tigers" countries and regions in a similar way to develop in turn, and then they will further develop themselves, and then have a relatively disadvantaged industry to transfer to neighboring countries, thus driving Siam, Java, Malaysia, the Philippines and other four tiger countries, like a wild goose array, passed down one level at a time. This development model has indeed played a positive and important role in promoting the economic growth of East Asia, and has also become a world economic growth point for a time.

But it is precisely because of this that the economic structure and model of Southeast Asian countries are very similar, and the problems of the existence of zài are also very similar, among which the overvaluation of the currency is also the inevitable problem of universal zài that they face.

Chen Yongzhi was silent for a while after hearing Bao Feiyang's explanation, Malaysia, like Java and other countries, uses the national standard currency to peg the US dollar, and has always implemented a fixed exchange rate system relative to the US dollar in the financial market, or the floating range is very limited. It is precisely because the US dollar has always been strong in the international financial market that this local currency peg to the US dollar is conducive to strengthening the confidence of domestic investors and attracting foreign investment.

Although this kind of exchange rate system gives people a sense of being more reliable and trustworthy, at the same time, it should be noted that this kind of exchange rate system is not able to reflect the real situation of the domestic and international economy in essence, because the United States has relied on the development of the science and technology industry since the mid-90s, the momentum of economic growth is extremely strong, and the dollar is constantly appreciating in the international financial market, and the appreciation of the dollar has also led to the corresponding appreciation of the currencies of the Southeast Asian countries that are pegged to the dollar, and the appreciation of their own currencies has caused the prices of their products exported from home to abroad to increase accordingly, which will eventually lead to the loss of initial competitiveness in the international market, which is sensitive to prices.

In the geese economic model, these countries take over the industrial transfer from the front end of the geese formation and catch up, while the countries behind will undertake their industrial transfer, but this is the ideal situation. The reality is that those countries in front of the wild goose array must strive to maintain their own industrial advantages, except for those relatively inferior industries such as high pollution, high energy consumption, and labor-intensive, under the premise of concentrating on the development of their own economy, it is impossible to harm the people who have benefited them, take the initiative to transfer their own advantageous industries, and let the countries behind quickly achieve industrial upgrading.

Naturally, the countries behind are not willing to remain behind, and will try to catch up, rather than passively waiting for the countries in front to take the initiative to transfer their industries. Especially in recent years, China has actually joined this wild goose array, and the energy of this behemoth is very huge in the entire international market, compared with those Southeast Asian countries that are relatively developed in terms of economic development but their overall scale is much smaller than their own, they undoubtedly have incomparable advantages in terms of human resources, land, market, and resources.

Therefore, when these Southeast Asian countries have encountered the appreciation of the US dollar, which leads to a chain reaction of the appreciation of their own currencies, and the prices of their own products have lost their original competitiveness in the international market, other countries, including Huaxia, are also scrambling to seize this market, thus further making the exports of these countries have a heavy impact.

Siam, Java, Malaysia and other countries have had huge deficits in the current account in recent years, that is, non-debt and investment balance of payments items, including trade and labor payments. The reason for the deficit is the deficit in import and export trade.

If we don't use technical economic jargon, but put it in more layman's terms, it is that these countries have to spend more money to buy products from other countries.

In the international market, foreign exchange is used for transactions, and the national currencies issued by these countries are not recognized in the international market, because these currencies themselves have no value, so they need to find other ways to obtain foreign exchange that can be circulated in international transactions.

Judging from the current situation in Southeast Asia as a whole, the foreign exchange receipts and expenditures of various countries are still relatively balanced, and the foreign exchange reserves are relatively stable, except for the current account deficit, there is a surplus in the capital account, which means that they are now facing the grim reality that they need to use the capital account surplus to make up for the current account deficit.

There are two main types of capital account items, investment and borrowing.

It's like a person, when the income he can get from the outside is not enough to cover his external expenses, he can borrow money from friends, from the bank, or ask friends to contribute money, and share an online platform with himself. In terms of financial nature, the former is borrowing, and the latter is investment.

However, unlike trade income, these money are not actually their own money, and they can be withdrawn at any time. So although the overall financial books of these countries seem to be relatively balanced, and sometimes there may even be a slight surplus, the current account deficit means that their foreign exchange wealth is actually decreasing.

This was also the case in Mexico before the financial crisis that was known to the world.

This situation is often very dangerous, and once there is a large-scale outflow of these foreign capital for some special reason, the foreign exchange payment capacity of this country that is declining will become very strained, or even lose the ability to pay.

Theoretically speaking, there is no way to import without foreign exchange reserves, in fact, once this happens, there is no need to put a beak, it will definitely trigger a series of chain reactions, first of all, it will immediately cause a large-scale panic, especially for those external capital, they want a strong dollar that can be redeemed at any time in the currency of any country, this kind of Malay currency that cannot be freely circulated in the international financial market is like a piece of waste paper for them, of course, when the external situation was stable in the past, they can calmly invest in Malaysia today, and then exchange the Malay currency earned in their hands into US dollars when they reap the investment income in the future。

However, once they see that Malaysia has problems and the foreign exchange reserves are insufficient, there may be no way to redeem the US dollars, and they will worry that the Malay dollars they have earned through their hard work will become a pile of useless waste paper in the future, and then these foreign investment businessmen will rush to convert the Malay dollars they hold into US dollars.

When these dollars come in, they are converted into Malays, but they may be used to cover the current account deficit, or to invest abroad, which means that at this time the initial investment has already been spent in the US dollars, so the government must not have sufficient foreign exchange reserves to pay for these payments.

And if such a panic happens, not only the original US dollars that came in want to withdraw, but also the people in their own country, especially some rich people with a certain scale of assets, do not want their own national currency funds in their hands to become a bunch of bubbles and disperse with the wind, and definitely want to exchange their money for more stable US dollars, panic triggers a run, The run exacerbated panic, and the government's purse strings, which were already insufficient in foreign exchange reserves, were even more insufficient, creating an irreversible vicious circle in the country's financial system.

"I think Malaysia's economy is generally good, although there are some deficits in the current account, but the scale of the deficit is not large, and there are some problems in the economy, and the government has been adjusting. Chen Yongzhi pondered for a moment and said, in fact, similar problems exist in many countries, if this will lead to a financial crisis, then most countries will have problems.

In Chen Yongzhi's view, although according to some situations and the analysis of several figures, there is still a possibility of economic problems in Southeast Asian countries in the near future, but the possibility of a real large-scale financial crisis is not large, it may only be a decline in economic growth, rising inflation, etc., so for a period of time, Dingfeng Group, which is in the economic business circle of Southeast Asia, is also looking for some opportunities for foreign investment to diversify the risks that may be faced. And the assessment of the size of the risk obviously influences the decisions they take later in development.

Bao Feiyang nodded, Chen Yongzhi's analysis of some things is still relatively in place and accurate, he continued to say to Chen Yongzhi: "Southeast Asian countries, especially Malaysia's economic foundation is basically sound, compared with Mexico, your budget deficit is not high, the national debt is not much, although the inflation rate is not low, but basically only a single digit, more importantly, the economic growth rate is fast, the savings rate is high, and the investment rate is also high. ”

"However, we should also see that the most direct cause of the outbreak of the financial crisis, or the most direct cause of large-scale capital outflows, no matter what the cause is, we can attribute it to a change in expectations, any reason, is a change in expectations, and a change in expectations will directly affect people's decision to make a run. ”

"The change in expectations can be a very small reason. Bao Feiyang paused, looked at Chen Yongzhi opposite with those bright eyes and said.

There is a great panic theory in the field of economics, which analyzes the financial crises and believes that the occurrence of financial crises is of course related to some weaknesses of the economy, such as the increase in the current account deficit, the decline of foreign exchange reserves, the fragility of the financial system, the large number of borrowing-in companies, the overvaluation of the real exchange rate, and so on. But these weaknesses do not necessarily lead to a financial crisis, or they are not sufficient to explain the suddenness and depth of the financial crisis.

"And the change in expectations, or panic, spreads very quickly, so although the current situation in Malaysia is not bad, some of the surrounding countries are not so good. Bao Feiyang said.

"Perhaps, you're right, but we shouldn't make too big changes to our decisions just because there may be hidden dangers. Chen Yongzhi put his hand on the black-framed glasses on the bridge of his nose, and said in a deep voice: "As for the surrounding countries, I don't know who you are referring to, Mr. Bao." ”R1152