Lu Yun seemed to understand, and she asked in a low voice: "Do you think the truth of the matter is that Qiao Qingyang thought that he was unlucky, and originally asked the driver to push the carport, but as a result, he overturned the main body of the building, so he didn't plead." On the other hand, www.biquge.info driver Lu Lin may have been heading for the main body of the building. It's just that Lu Lin's motives are unknown, why he did this, it doesn't make sense at all, right?"

Lin Lei nodded: "Yes, Old Man Qiao should have seen the problem back then, but the pressure from public opinion made him unable to defend himself." You also know that there are always people in society who look at the rich with colored glasses, thinking that all the rich people are Huang Shiren and Zhou Papi, and they are all rich and unkind. At that time, public opinion was very unfavorable to Mingda Group. The richer Mr. Qiao of the Mingda Group is, the more he can't argue. I'm afraid there is something else going on in this matter. ”

Lu Yun lowered his head and pondered for a moment, and looked at Lin Lei with some admiration: "Lin Lei, are you really only twenty-five years old? You also understand the world of the rich, you also understand the world of the poor, and even if you have a hatred of the rich in society, you can relate to this case——"

Lin Lei smiled bitterly and snuffed out the cigarette in his hand: "Have you forgotten that I grew up in an orphanage? Since I was very young, I have been exposed to this society—this complex society. ”

After saying this, Lin Lei and Lu Yun were silent......

After a long while, Lu Yun broke the silence and put forward another idea: "Lin Lei, is it possible that the case of the Nanguan ogre is Qiao Yu's revenge? Or is it that Qiao Yu's mother committed the crime with him to take revenge on the Mingda Group?"

Lin Lei shook his head, with a solemn look on his face: "When I first heard Qiao Yan talk about the case, I had this idea for a short time. But later, as the investigation deepened, this possibility approached zero indefinitely. ”

Lu Yun pursed her mouth: "You just just say it's impossible, and you still go around the bend to say that the possibility is infinitely close to 0......"

Lin Lei laughed: "You know that I usually don't easily make judgments like 'absolute' and 'certain', because there are too many things in this world with small probabilities-"

Lu Yun glanced at Lin Lei, and said hatefully: "Don't sell Guanzi, say it quickly, why can't it be Qiao Yu and his mother?"

Lin Lei took out a cigarette, lit it, and said slowly: "This time, I use a new way of reasoning, which is called the probability reduction method. ”

Lu Yun was a little puzzled: "Probability reduction method?"

Lin Lei nodded, and then said: "In fact, it is an extension of the elimination method. For example, when every suspicion of a suspect cannot be completely eliminated, then the suspicion of committing a crime is reduced little by little until the suspicion of committing a crime is reduced to infinitely close to 0-"

Lu Yun seemed to understand what Lin Lei meant, and bowed slightly: "Okay, you tell me about it." ”

Lin Lei took a deep puff of his cigarette and said, "What makes Qiao Yu's suspicion greatly reduced is his age first. ”

Lu Yun thought for a while and agreed: "Well, Qiao Yu was only sixteen years old at the time of the incident, and he was almost a freshman in high school. You said that Nanguan Ogre is a murderer like Hannibal, and this extremely psychopathic murderer is unlikely to be a high school student. ”

Lin Lei continued: "Yes, so Qiao Yu's suspicion can be greatly reduced. So could Qiao Yu's mother be a Nanguan ogre? I don't think it's very likely. In this case, it is more likely that the murderer is a man, and a woman wants to disembowel the victim, and it is a serial crime, which is too low. And don't forget, Qiao Yu's mother is not a doctor, nor a butcher, but a famous lady-"

Lu Yun pondered for a moment and nodded in approval: "Yes." Not to mention the noble lady of Qiao Yu's mother, even if she is a more professional female doctor, it is difficult to do things such as taking human offal and eating offal. Of course, things are not absolute. Like you said, it can further reduce the suspicion of their mother and son. ”

Lin Lei flicked the ash into the ashtray and said, "Go on." I'll lower the suspicion of their mother and son now-the top of the Mingda Group, Old Man Qiao and Qiao Yan don't know who the Nanguan ogre is......"

Lu Yun didn't react for a moment: "The top management of Mingda Group doesn't know who the murderer is, can they reduce the suspicion of Qiao Yu's mother and son?"

Lin Lei nodded: "Yes." Two relatives who have lived by your side for more than ten or twenty years, you will know more or less about their behavior and modus operandi, not to mention the extremely smart people like Old Man Qiao. Old Man Qiao acquiesced in Qiao Yan coming out to find his eldest brother, which means that he definitely doesn't think that Qiao Yu or Qiao Yu's mother is a Nanguan ogre. ”

Lu Yun thought about it, and it was indeed as Lin Lei said. If Qiao Yu was a Nanguan ogre, it would be difficult to escape Old Man Qiao's eyes. After all, Old Man Qiao is the one who watched Qiao Yu grow up. It is possible for a person to disguise, but the person who is disguised must be a person with a lot of experience. A freshman in high school, let him disguise himself and deceive people like Mr. Qiao, the probability is extremely low.

Of course, there are no absolutes in the world, and Lin Lei is not using the elimination method now, but the probability reduction method.

Obviously, the suspicion that Nanguan Ogre is Qiao Yu's mother and son has been reduced again.

Lin Lei continued: "Finally, there is a piece of information that allows me to completely reduce the suspicion of Qiao Yu's mother and son to infinitely close to 0......"

Lu Yun was stunned for a moment, and then asked in a low voice, "What information?"

Lin Lei lightly spit out a smoke ring: "Qiao Yan's eldest aunt is a Chinese of Burmese nationality, and her mother's family has a huge influence in Myanmar, and she is a famous local family. Although I did not find her exit record, I suspect that she had smuggled out of the country and returned to Myanmar. ”

Lu Yun was a little puzzled: "Why?"

Lin Lei's eyes narrowed slightly, and he said slowly: "With the financial resources and power of Old Man Qiao of the Mingda Group, if their orphans and widows are in Nanguan, even if they do a serial murder case, Old Man Qiao will definitely not be able to find someone for more than ten years." ”

Lu Yun lowered his head and pondered, it was indeed the case - because Lin Lei had already analyzed it before, Old Man Qiao didn't think that the Nanguan Ogre was Qiao Yu's mother and son, so he was looking for someone.

Old Man Qiao has strong financial resources, and he eats both black and white. If Qiao Yu's mother and son are in China, Old Man Qiao will use money to smash them, and he can also smash clues.

After all, this society is not ancient, so how can there be any peach blossom source?

Lu Yun raised his head and seemed to understand: "Lin Lei, this is the reason why you brought Qiao Yan by your side?

Lin Lei nodded: "Yes, otherwise what do you think? I'll take a beautiful woman out on a trip?"

After a pause, Lin Lei continued: "Old Man Qiao is really smart. He had already guessed that his grandson was in Burma, but unfortunately Burma was not very peaceful, and there were rebels everywhere. Old Man Qiao knows my details, and I will definitely go to Myanmar to investigate the case, so he agreed to Qiao Yan to follow me. ”

Lu Yun suddenly realized: "You smart people always talk halfway, and the rest depends on guessing-okay, I admit that what you said makes sense, but isn't it tiring like this?"

Lin Lei smiled: "I'm not tired, it's funny." ”

Lu Yun glanced at Lin Lei, and the word "dissatisfied" hung on his face again.

After a while, Lin Lei's brows furrowed slightly: "Now it can basically rule out the possibility that the Nanguan ogre is Qiao Yu's mother and son, so the scope of reasoning about who is the Nanguan ogre will be smaller." ”

Lu Yun nodded and expressed approval: "Well, I agree with your reasoning. ”