Chapter 459 Petroleum Futures

According to Jiang Hui's vision, the funds invested in the financial market by Guanghui will at least double the income in 2006. In terms of the Celestial Empire's stock market, Jiang Hui feels that doubling is not a big problem, and even quadrupling is not impossible.

From this point of view, in fact, investing all the money in the Celestial Empire stock market is the most stable and the highest return. However, the stock market of the Celestial Empire in 2006 was limited, and there were too many funds to be put into it. You must know that Jiang Hui has obtained 3 billion yuan from the sale of shares in the school intranet and Meituan.com, plus part of the funds of Guanghui Games, which is already a force to be reckoned with in the Celestial Empire stock market.

Jiang Hui just wants to make a little money by following the stock market surge, but he doesn't want to be saddled with a reputation for manipulating stock prices, so other funds can no longer stay in the domestic stock market.

Of course, in 2006, when the renminbi was appreciating, Jiang Hui held a bunch of dollars, and if there were no good investment channels, it would actually be a loss.

And will Jiang Hui lack good investment channels?

Not to mention that Guanghui Investment has been laying out the automotive industry and is ready to acquire a number of parts companies at any time, which requires a lot of capital.

However, these are not the best investment methods at the moment, in Jiang Hui's eyes, in the international market in 2006, the best investment is oil futures.

The oil crisis that occurred in the early 70s of the 20th century had a huge impact on the world oil market, and oil prices fluctuated violently, which directly led to the emergence of oil futures. Since the birth of oil futures, its trading volume has been showing a rapid growth trend, which has surpassed metal futures and is an important part of the international futures market.

There are four important crude oil futures contracts in the world, namely the New York Mercantile Futures Contract, the Singapore Sour Crude Oil Futures Contract, the Tokyo Industrial Products Contract and the Brent Crude Oil Futures Contract in the United Kingdom.

In fact, the original purpose of futures was hedging. Enterprises can achieve risk procurement through hedging, which can keep production and operation costs or expected profits relatively stable, thereby enhancing the ability of enterprises to resist market price risks.

The basic practice of hedging is that a company buys or sells oil commodity futures contracts that are equivalent to the number traded in the spot market, but in the opposite direction, in order to offset the actual price risk caused by price changes in the spot market at some point in the future by means of hedging or liquidation compensation.

Of course, due to the objective existence of the difference between spot prices and futures prices, hedging cannot completely eliminate risks, but replace a larger risk with a smaller risk, and replace the risk of spot price changes with the risk of difference between spot prices and futures prices.

However, capital has a natural speculative need. Using the futures market, traders can avoid the negative impact of international oil price fluctuations on the one hand, and on the other hand, they can also obtain more benefits from market price fluctuations through speculative trading.

Jiang Hui is one of those parties to this type of transaction.

"Mr. Jiang, the risk of the oil futures market is much higher than that of stocks, is Guanghui Investment really going to enter this field from the beginning?" Guan Weidong said a little worriedly.

One of the biggest differences between futures and stocks is that the two-way trading mechanism of the futures market is that only the buyer and seller can make a deal on the same terms. If you don't consider the handling fee, your profit is someone else's loss, and your loss is someone else's profit, so the futures market is a "zero-sum game" market. The stock market, on the other hand, is not a "zero-sum game" market, because when the stock rises, although the buyer makes a profit, the seller does not lose money because the stock rises, and conversely, when the stock falls, although the buyer loses money, the seller does not make a profit because the stock falls.

Stocks are only borne by the buyer, while futures are traded as long as they are traded, whether they are long or short, they have to bear the risk of price fluctuations, which is determined by the use of futures in the form of margin trading. Investors only need to pay 5%-10% of the contract value of the margin in futures trading, which is equivalent to 20-10 times the leverage ratio, and the high risk of the futures market is reflected in the leverage effect. This is also the reason why futures are high risk.

Leverage is the key to wealth, and the higher the risk, the higher the return.

In 06, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, from $60 a barrel at the beginning of the year to a sky-high price of $80 a barrel, and before the economic and financial crisis, it once exceeded $150 a barrel. Jiang Hui, who has mastered the trend of this oil, enters the oil futures market, although he cannot guarantee 100% to make money, but the possibility of making money is much higher than losing money, so Jiang Hui feels that it is worth fighting. If it succeeds, the funds for the acquisition of Jaguar Land Rover will come out.

"In recent years, crude oil prices have embarked on a ramp of rise, and the entire international economic development has shown a thriving attitude, especially the demand for oil in the Celestial Empire has risen rapidly every year, and I think oil will rise sharply in 2006," Jiang Hui said to Guan Weidong.

"But now oil is $60 a barrel, which is double a few years ago, and as a consumer product, this is a very alarming increase. Many experts judge that oil prices will be weak and downward in the future," Guan Weidong continued to persuade Jiang Hui not to easily enter the oil futures market.

In the Celestial Empire, the most unbelievable thing is the words of the "brick family", and in many cases, it is correct to understand the words of the "brick family" in reverse.

……

A well-known treasure connoisseur was appraising a clay pot from the Kangxi era, and said: Look at it, this exquisite texture, beautiful carving handicraft, and the faint fragrance of the deceased, and the name of the maker is still left on it, which must be the name engraved by the craftsman of Kangxi, so ethereal and illusory and vigorous strokes.

Suddenly, a blind man who had not gone to school hurriedly said, "Who saw my urine jar?"

……

OPEC once gave a factor that needs to be considered in the rise of crude oil prices: First, there is about 1% of the new proven reserves every year; second, with the acceleration of economic development, the level of crude oil consumption will rise by 1.9% in the next 20 years; third, the difficulty and cost of exploitation are getting higher and higher, supporting the rise in oil prices; therefore, in Jiang Hui's view, in the long run, the rise in the price of oil, a non-renewable energy source, is inevitable.

Of course, due to the rapid development of shale oil technology in the United States and other factors, the price of oil will fall in a wave, which is now unpredictable.

"Steward, I know what you're worried about. In fact, if you think about it from a different angle, you won't be so worried. Although this is a lot of dollars, even if we do lose it, it will not have much impact on the operation of our group, at most, we need to raise more funds for subsequent development."

Strictly speaking, this fund is now in Jiang Hui's personal name, and whether it becomes more or less, it will not affect the company's development.

Of course, it certainly won't be at all ineffective.

It can only be said that this risk is nothing compared to the possible high returns.

(End of chapter)