Chapter 308: Closing the position and leaving
"It's really a short dip. Wu Xuan's eyes flashed with an incredible look when he looked at Wang Nuo.
From the analyst's point of view, there is no need to study the market so deeply, the general direction is given, and the rest is the trader's business.
Wang Nuo and Wu Xuan analyzed the middle line, which covered the market situation for the entire month of October, and it was already a complete success if they could give the right direction.
But from the end of September to the National Day holiday, which is less than ten days of trading days, Wang Nuo's rhythm has been very good, saying that it will rise, that it will rise again, that it will rise again, and that it will fall for a short time...... It's really a short dip.
Simply using luck to describe Wang Nuo's argument is definitely biased, who can have this luck.
And Wang Nuo's argument is also right, which means that it means ...... It is likely that his derivation process was also correct.
This is something that Wu Xuan can't envy...... Resonance with the overall investment psychology of the market, this is talent, what kind of data analysis, to that level, it is just rough and dirty work.
The most important thing is to make money.
Financial research, futures market research reports, if the direction is correct, it is a very valuable thing, even the details are in the middle, can it still make money?
The amount of energy in the market and the price difference represent how much the correct research report can be worth.
Wang Nuo's views...... If it is placed on him, it can be tens of millions of dollars, if it is put on Ren Likun, it can be more than 100 million, and if it is placed on the main force, it may be 1.8 billion.
"Arnold, how many positions do you hold?" Wu Xuan was very interested, and couldn't help but ask this privacy question.
Of course, Wang Nuo would not answer Wu Xuan, he was still waiting, waiting for the market to give the price and the trading volume of the day.
Subtracting the volume data given by the market using the volume determined by the honest pen may also give some trend probabilities.
"Order! Buy 2900 yuan! What about coking coal? Who is responsible?"
"No matter what, you can buy black. ”
"Overbought is for sure, how much will the data overflow now!"
In the Shanghai market, Ren Likun stood at the door of the trading room, watching the hired investment team operate quickly there.
After many years of mixing in the futures market, Ren Likun can see a lot of things from the data and the changes in his own positions.
For example, the correctness of adding positions now, for example, the investment team really outperformed the correlation index of risk and return, and for example...... The safest way is the way to not make the most money.
"If I also start with a heavy position. "Financial players have this common problem, they will regret losing money, and they will be annoyed when they make money, Ren Likun knows that this emotion is not advisable, but it is inevitable that there is still an idea floating in his heart.
He has a lot more information than ordinary people, and he and other speculators combined, have spent a lot of money and favors in addition to investment, and finally ...... Thinking of Wang Nuo's possible heavy position, Ren Likun felt envious, jealous and hateful.
The yield is completely crushed.
As long as the market is in the right direction, large funds will almost always be crushed by small funds with yields, however...... More than 10,000 hands is not a small amount of money.
Ren Likun was even more upset that he determined the direction of Wang Nuo's position three or four times in a row, determined Wang Nuo's arguments twice in a row, contacted Wang Nuo three times in a row, and then ...... Not once has it kept up, not once has it kept up with the right pace of continuous investment.
The most heartbreaking thing is that Ren Likun still knows very well that even if Wang Nuo discusses with him again, he still ...... Won't keep up.
Speculating in futures with a large amount of money and never being satisfied with a position is something that mature investors must learn to do, Ren Likun has learned it, so he also lost the opportunity to create miracles, in exchange for a sense of security that he will not go to hell.
"For me, it's already a business, and I can't get back to the passion I had when I first entered the market. Ren Likun thought silently in his heart, and immediately determined another thought: "But those who succeed will succeed, Wang Nuo's line...... I have to follow. ”
The right people will continue to be right, and successful people will continue to succeed, which is a truth in the financial market with linkage and continuity.
After the price of rebar futures quickly broke 2850 yuan per ton, it slowly rose, and at this time, there is no amount of energy below, and it has been a test above, and the main force of long and short will slowly look for a suitable point for hedging.
Those who are familiar with the futures market know that the trading volume of the futures market is much greater than the open interest, especially in the commodity futures market.
For example, now, the more the rebar futures price reaches above 2,850 yuan per ton, the more intense the hedging is, which is full of market-making, arbitrage and other operations, and the high-frequency fluctuations are too large, which stimulates the occurrence of this phenomenon.
And this situation will lead to another trend, that is, big ups and downs.
China's commodity futures market, up three or two percentage points is not called a market outbreak, once the volume goes up, either a big rise, or a big fall, only a small probability will return to the median.
Wang Nuo believes that the trading volume is breaking out at a high level, and things are moving forward step by step to where he expected.
However, the data of volume and energy was a bit disappointing to Wang Nuo, and when it was close to closing, rebar futures broke out with a trading volume of more than 8 million hands, which can be regarded as a big market, but failed to make Wang Nuo sure that this is the last market.
The expected trading volume of the honest pen, after subtracting the 8 million lots, is about 40 million lots, and there are still 13 trading days left, and it is expected that there should be another outbreak next Monday, but whether it can digest enough volume is only between five and five.
But...... The increase is okay, when the amplitude of the day exceeded 5%, the price of rebar futures rose by 3.5%, not only breaking the position of 2900 yuan per ton, but also breaking 2950, fluctuating above 2950, and gradually flattening.
Wang Nuo was a little disappointed, and Wu Xuan was shocked because he knew it very well...... It's a time of decision.
In the black futures, the most fierce rise is not rebar, but coking coal, but the volume and position of coking coal are too small, and the market basically depends on the trend of rebar to determine the trend of black series.
From around 2650 to above 2950, the increase of 300 yuan per ton almost caught up with the spot price of the futures contract price in January next year, which shows that the problem of downside probability and downside space is too high.
So...... Now the bears have the upper hand, and the bulls should go on the defensive.
However, the rhythm of the trading order is very stable, and it is in a state where the rise and fall exceeds the transaction fee and will be smashed back, and the market seems to have no room to continue to rise, but there is no willingness to continue to decline.
The total position is increasing, and the long-short divergence is more serious.
"Close the position and leave. Wang Nuo did not hesitate at all, things have developed to the point where they are now, and even the volume determined by the honest pen cannot give him any trend guidance, and he should not have any nostalgia.
In fact, Wang Nuo's decision to leave is even more because of ...... In the brush, the amount of energy he owes will be astronomical.