Japan's national debt is more than 900 trillion yen, and the reason why it has not collapsed is that 92% of it is held domestically, so that there will not be a national debt crisis like some countries, but the heavy burden makes the national debt larger and larger.

The monetary policy of the authorities is to allow banks to expand their balance sheets, adopt QE, increase monetary aggregates, and achieve a double decline in interest rates and exchange rates, which will stimulate social investment and bring the economy into a positive cycle.

The origin of Wang Nuo's view is that he is biased to believe that this strategy will instead lead to high risk aversion, and the price trend of real assets is worrying, so a vicious circle of reverse will arise, and ...... The reason why he tends to be so aware is because he feels that there is a possibility of manipulation.

That is, the negative interest rate arbitrage model mentioned above, which will allow the yen exchange rate to be manipulated, and it is to manipulate their currency exchange rate in front of Japan, but ...... If Japan doesn't want to die, it can only watch this group of institutions go into manipulation mode.

So Wang Nuo's bet is: Japan doesn't dare to die, seppuku hurts too much.

Thinking about the positive cycle, there is an opportunity to manipulate, being manipulated, entering a vicious circle, not wanting to die, so the positive cycle is far away, there are many variables, but the possibility is also very large, the key is to see...... Will currency holders really turn around and invest in real assets because of the decline in the exchange rate?

"So the most important thing is that after the exchange rate falls, various institutions immediately pull the exchange rate back, which institutions think of this and dare to do this?" Wang Nuo immediately remembered my big central mother.

Eating, sleeping, and fighting devils is what my central mother has been doing in recent years, and is it really a decoration for the $3 trillion in my mother's hands? It is a real asset, not leverage.

Unfortunately, for a few years, China has not found an opportunity to intervene excessively, because ...... Someone has to sell it first.

According to the arbitrage model, no institution can buy or sell yen indefinitely, and this operation is only possible when supply and demand explode at a certain stage.

It's ......

Wang Nuo opened the website of the financial media, clicked on the relevant information, and immediately saw the layer of fog shrouded in the market.

China's central bank said that China may reduce its holdings of yen assets due to concerns about negative interest rates. ”

"Meirui is optimistic that the dollar will enter the interest rate hike channel. ”

"PIMCO reminds Japan to be cautious, as negative interest rates are a new area. ”

True and false, false and true, the words of financial institutions, even if it is a country's central bank, can not be trusted, unless it is a strategy, otherwise don't believe it, this group of goods may shout Ya Yan butterfly, while turning back and secretly stealing fun.

Moreover, Wang Nuo is also a little overestimated insiders, and the mainstream view in the industry is actually more inclined to the negative interest rate of the yen, which leads to the depreciation of the yen and increases the risk of the arbitrage system.

After all, the view of normal people is that negative interest rates will make social investment active and stimulate the economy in the long run, and in the short term, the currency may depreciate first, and the medium term may pick up, but ...... What should you do, I feel that everyone can still live according to the previous model.

In fact, after using this inference to communicate with the green corner, Wang Nuo saw a face full of astonishment.

One step ahead is a genius, two steps ahead is a madman.

"This is impossible, first of all, assuming that the negative interest rate strategy comes out, the yen will definitely panic depreciate, if there is enough support, that is, the arbitrage demand you said, it is bound to instantly pull back the interest rate differential, and it is even possible to push the exchange rate back, then the thing is not back to the original point?"

"Speculation 2, negative interest rates pull out a stable negative line, arbitrage space is swallowed up by depreciation expectations, and the depreciation of currencies activates economic activities. ”

"Three, if the exchange rate stabilizes, whether it is the dollar or the yen, supply and demand are not unlimited, Wang, the market you are talking about is not a derivatives market, it is a real transaction. ”

On Hong Kong Island, the office conditions in Green Corner are really superior enough, their conference room even has a screen wall, and when they have a meeting with Wang Nuo, they can even see Wang Nuo's pores, but the superior conditions do not mean that the Green Corner group will not be scared to death by Wang Nuo's views.

The thing in Wang Nuo's inference lacks a very important thing, which is called supply and demand.

Who can guarantee the supply? Who can guarantee that the liquidity released by negative interest rates will be swallowed up by financial assets? When the funds are swallowed up, the impetus will be spit out, and then the market will close its arbitrage exposure on its own, and even the interest rate on Treasury bonds may be erased from the negative number, and then it will not become a carry trade? The model will go back to the way it used to be.

"But the Australian dollar is trending down!" Wang Nuo asked Green, but Meng Han and the others sitting next to him couldn't help twitching the corners of their mouths.

In the final analysis, the boss still insists on deriving the market from the trend of the Australian dollar, doesn't he know that whether the Australian dollar will fall is also a probability event?

It is simply unforgiving to extrapolate one probability to another, and then to extrapolate more probabilities.

"Wang, we're not sure where the Australian dollar is going, we're just inclined to think it's going to fall. "Green is crazy over there," the Australian dollar fell, but the yen pairs in the foreign exchange market are all USD/JPY, and the factor of the Australian dollar falling is hedged by the safe-haven currency unwinding move, which is only a possibility. ”

"The Australian dollar is in a downward channel, if it falls steadily, the pressure on the yen increases, and if other currencies do not provide a corresponding positive force for the depreciation of the yen, they are likely to take a negative interest rate strategy, and they have always wanted to try this one, and because the Japanese are the same as you think, so the probability of them going to a negative interest rate strategy will be very high. Wang Nuo said.

"So, are you bearish on the yen?" it was Jonas's turn to speak this time, and he was as completely helpless as Green.

"No, I think negative interest rates are the first step, I'm not sure if there will be a situation after negative interest rates, but there is a high probability that even if the yen is negative, the Australian dollar will still trend down, so the reverse analysis ......"

Wang Nuo continued: "It is precisely because there is room for operation in the yen area that the trend of the Australian dollar cannot stop the downward trend, and it is precisely because of the trend decline of the Australian dollar that there is room for operation in the yen area. ”

"Then why don't you short the Australian dollar. Green almost couldn't complain.

"I don't want to be busy for a quarter and end up with three or two percent of amplitude space. Wang Nuo said with a smile.

"Good luck, and I will bless you if the situation you say arises. In the end, Green gave up his intention to convince Wang Nuo, but he still got what he wanted, and asked in turn: "So your view on the trend of the Australian dollar exchange rate is still trending down?"

This, of course, is an argument that supports my argument. Wang Nuo replied.

"Wang, you are really a madman, I give you a suggestion, you can go and ask Qin, if your inference finally comes true, now your country's central bank should have begun to prepare. Green sighed and suggested, "This is the obligation of the company, you ...... It's Chinese, and we're a little different. ”

Green's words opened another window for Wang Nuo.

Finance has no borders, but financial investors have nationality, Qin Jiyong is likely to help Wang Nuo get some information, the relationship between Chinese financial institutions and Chinese officials is two models with foreign countries, otherwise why is the central bank called the central mother?