Chapter 533: Death at the End
"Wang, with a loss of more than $17 million, I suggest you close your position as soon as possible. "On the 12th, late at night on Wednesday, the American plate was still going on, but in the conference room of Tyrone International, Green showed a serious expression and made suggestions to Wang Nuo.
The loss of $17 million is only Wang Nuo's 10,000 hands, while the $40 million in charge of Green Corner and the $37 million in Ye Yaohua are just more profitable than they are loss.
It adds up to the profit on the side of the green corner that can not only offset Ye Yaohua's loss, but also make a little surplus, while Wang Nuo's side is a pure loss.
However, the fall of the yen exchange rate has led to the green corner not because Wang Nuo's investment strategy has no hope of victory, but because it is ...... The stakes are raised.
"The resistance line of 120 seems to be very solid, but in fact, in this case, it is not without the possibility of breakdown, Wang, the bulls have political will, if they fail, they will not mind letting the loss widen. Jonas also looked very worried.
"Mr. Wang, the central bank's holdings of yen government bonds have exceeded 5 billion US dollars, and this is only the data released by the Bank of Japan, secretly...... It is not known how many there are yet. Meng Han also began to tremble.
"The Nikkei 225 has almost caught up with the depreciation of the yen, and Japan is expected to move from deflation to inflation. Yuan Rongxin has also recently been studying the strategic variables of the Japanese economy.
A simple causal chain is clear, Japan's strategy against the yen is to "inject water into the depreciation", and then it succeeds, the depreciation of the yen has led to the increase in the price of the yen's real assets, plus the market is worried about the depreciation of the yen, so ...... Economic activity is somewhat buoyant.
Investors suddenly found that they could make a profit by exchanging yen and buying assets, which led to more people willing to participate in this kind of process.
What's even worse is ...... The market is too vague.
Now the previous view has been overturned, and it is believed that most international financial institutions will not allow the yen to continue to depreciate, but in the current situation, it seems that ...... There are more institutions that want to make money.
Lending dollars, borrowing yen, exchanging yen assets, and waiting for the price to rise above the depreciation rate can be seen from the Nikkei 225 rising faster than the yen depreciation, because the stock price trend can basically reflect the price trend of real assets.
It can be said that now that the price of Japanese assets is rising, and the price of any house price is rising, Japanese companies are profiting and stock prices are rising, and the yen arbitrage exposure provides an opportunity for international institutions to enter the market, and it seems that the Bank of Japan's strategy is expected to succeed.
"Is the depreciation of the yen, the appreciation of the US dollar, and the depreciation of the Australian dollar relative to the US dollar? But why is it ......?" The clever thing is that Wang Nuo also believes that the reason for withstanding it is that "the Australian dollar has shown an appreciation trend relative to the US dollar." ”
This is wrong, Wang Nuo doesn't think that the trend depreciation of the Australian dollar has been overturned, after all, the Australian dollar cannot fall every day, but the dollar appreciates, the Australian dollar appreciates, is it ...... Proving that the depreciation of the yen is too high, and it has touched the nerves of more currencies?
Looking at other currencies such as the euro and the pound, Wang Nuo feels that the yen has a tendency to find death, it falls alone, others are rising, there is such a good thing in the world?
The U.S. economy now also has a demand for the depreciation of the dollar, and now the U.S. is still in a cycle of "water injection" or liquidity, and Europe is even more saying that it wants to learn from the experience of negative interest rates on the yen, and then ...... Has the negative yen interest rate succeeded?
What an international joke, the depreciation of the yen is profitable for many financial institutions, but from a national point of view, it is a disgusting thing, even if it is a state-owned financial institution against an international financial institution, a little tacit understanding can crush and beat, how can the yen continue to depreciate.
Moreover...... In the data released by the Bank of Japan, not only the People's Bank of China has purchased yen government bonds, but other state-owned financial institutions have followed suit.
The most important thing is that Japan's foreign exchange reserve data has increased accordingly, which means that international financial institutions have exchanged dollars for yen, and Japan has exchanged "water injection" for dollar reserves.
Looking at the data, analyzing the market psychology, and from the perspective of profit, it is possible for all people to work together to help "Japanese friends"; no matter which angle you look at from politics, economy, diplomacy, and military, this is a fallacy, and at least it cannot be "all people are united."
Wang Nuo is inclined to believe that if you want to make it perish, you must first make it crazy.
Condensed into two words, that is: price reduction.
The depreciation of the yen has reduced the cost of exchanging yen for institutions holding other currencies, which was originally 117 yen for 1 dollar, but now it can be exchanged for 119, and then ...... Japan did not dare to stop.
What is the effect of first depreciating and then appreciating? It will certainly touch the fragile nerves of investors, because the depreciation in the early stage is too deep and the economic data is too poor, and the yen cannot afford to appreciate after depreciation.
In this case, even if the yen depreciates, it must continue to "inject water", at least to maintain the depreciation range, if you want to fight a decisive battle, then you can only increase the "water injection" again after the rebound, so that it can depreciate back.
You can't delay, you can't turn back, this is a very awkward position, and this is again a position that must be stolen.
So......
"Tactical losses in exchange for strategic advantages?" Wang Nuo's cautious liver was a little unbearable, he seemed to see the red tide invading the white embankment, and now it seemed that the tide was receding, but in fact, it was brewing the next wave of impact.
"If I can know if the institutions have exchanged the yen financial assets for real assets, then I can be completely sure of this. Wang Nuo suddenly had a desire to snoop on the data at the central bank level.
"King?"
"Mr. Wang?"
Seeing that Wang Nuo fell into thinking again, most of the people in the conference room raised their hearts to their throats, and now closing the position and admitting the loss is actually a way, after all, ...... I have earned enough in the early stage, and I also have the opportunity to arbitrage through technical techniques in the later stage, and I can make money no matter how I make more than 100 million.
The difference is between small money and big money.
"I think...... The more the yen depreciates, the greater the pressure, the yen eliminates the arbitrage space, that is, in the face of failure, if the arbitrage space is not eliminated, the pressure will become greater and greater, so big that when they can no longer bear the pressure, it will still rise, and the market-oriented currency exchange rate does not have enough room for the Bank of Japan to manipulate, they cross the line. A determined look flashed in Wang Nuo's eyes: "When the bottom comes out, they will lose." ”
Yes, the Bank of Japan is not alive or dead now, it does not dare to let the yen be seen at the bottom of the exchange rate, to be precise, it is precisely because of the pressure of international institutions that the Bank of Japan does not dare to relax the rhythm of "water injection", but the exchange rate can not always fall and fall to death.
Falling from 111 to 119, stimulating the economy.
Breaking 120 may still stimulate the economy.
Fall again...... 125?130?It's impossible to fall to the 250 before the Plaza Accord.
The current market no longer has enough room to depreciate the yen, so it will inevitably bottom, and Wang Nuo's bet is not that it will not see the bottom, but that it will die when it bottoms out.