On July 16, the reverse repurchase event occurred with a high probability, and the central bank announced the implementation of a reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan, with a period of 7 days and a direct interest rate bidding.

The stock market rose in response, but at this moment, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the World Financial Exchange simultaneously warned that systemic risks in China's securities market are increasing.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange was suppressed below 3,900 points.

On July 17, the four major banks took away all the reverse repurchase funds of 50 billion, and the securities companies and trust and investment companies did not even get a single hair.

The first divergence arises.

"The CSI 300 index is 3897 points, close to 3.5 million yuan in profit, it's time to take a profit and exit!" In the office of the charity foundation, seeing that Wang Nuo was still hesitating, Ye Yaohua's heart jumped to his throat.

From 3805 to 3897, Wang Nuo made a total profit of 1,683,600 yuan, plus the previous 1,763,100 yuan, he entered the market with 5.3 million yuan, and earned 3,446,700 yuan in 7 trading days.

The pressure of 3900 points is too great, and all major institutions are issuing warnings, in this case, is Wang Nuo still unwilling to leave.

However, the reason why Ye Yaohua can't be upgraded from a trader to a fund manager is because he lost his way at a critical moment, and before he shouted, Wang Nuo had closed his position near 3897.

The amount of money for the reverse repo may not be included in the variable of the honest pen cut, which is a rare stage in which Wang Nuo and other investors have the same information.

Then the data is very easy to calculate, Wang Nuo made money at this time, and he should still lose some of the energy of the honest pen, but the probability of profit is the same as that of others, and he is stupid to continue to hold positions.

It's definitely a throw.

"Brother Hua doesn't think that the amount of reverse repurchase funds released is too small?" Although he closed the position, Wang Nuo still didn't answer Ye Yaohua's question, and asked directly.

However, the probability of continuing the reverse repo and not continuing the reverse repo is almost equal, and your argument does not cover this point in time. Ye Yaohua is very sober about this aspect.

In just such a sentence, Ye Yaohua is actually worthy of the meager salary given by Wang Nuo.

"Yes, the probability of continuing and not continuing is equal, so I closed the position. Wang Nuo nodded, with an expectant expression on his face.

The temporary imbalance in the market capital structure is because the funds not only flow to the central bank, but also to the securities market, so 50 billion may not be enough, and Huapu Fund and other institutions predict two or three hundred billion.

But who knows?

If the central bank feels that 50 billion yuan is enough and chooses other measures, then the variables that have been cut by the honest pen are outdated for Wang Nuo, and he can start to look for the top of the index.

Now......

After closing the position, Wang Nuo is very relaxed, if there is a continuation of the reverse repo, he can go in and take a bear before the interest rate winning figure and the flow of funds come out, if there is no continued reverse repo, then ...... Simpler, the probability of falling will be much greater than the probability of rising.

"I still think that 3,900 points will be broken, funds will continue to flow into the securities market, structural imbalances will continue to be unbalanced, the central bank will continue to reverse repo, and then ...... Bang!" Wang Nuo was looking forward to this.

The index was pulled up and broke 3900, which represents the further flow of funds into the securities market, on behalf of financial institutions to continue to test the bottom limit and possibility of the market and regulators, on behalf of the continued accumulation of risks, and also on behalf of opportunities brewing.

The decline of the index is also a good opportunity for stock index futures to make money.

Wang Nuo has been staring at the data, and has been waiting for Tao Keren and Zhou Minghai to deliver some new news to him.

"Instead, I hope that 3900 points will not be broken. Ye Yaohua felt that his heart couldn't stand it, he had read Wang Nuo's analysis conclusion, and knew very well that once the 3900 points were broken, according to Wang Nuo's character, he would definitely have to enter the tightrope again.

Huapu Fund Research Department.

"I'd like to see 3,900 points broken. Tao Keren's eyes lit up.

So far, all of Wang Nuo's analysis conclusions have been confirmed by the market, but the peak variable has not yet appeared, Tao Keren is very much looking forward to the market continuing to confirm Wang Nuo's analysis conclusions, or ...... Half of the proof?

"That group of fund managers was too cautious. Chu Muwei sat in the office, but sighed silently in his heart.

A total of almost 200 points, in the case of the research department's optimism about the market outlook, the fund managers of Huapu Fund did not make corresponding operations, and they made several percentage points less.

"If you break 3900 and go straight to 4000 points next, the faces of those guys will definitely be wonderful. Chu Muwei continued to mutter to himself, but suddenly, he suddenly remembered another possibility, the possibility proposed by Wang Nuo.

"First break 3900, then reverse repo, then flow funds to bypass the securities market, and finally the regulator will ......" Chu Muwei suddenly had a little heartbeat, "It seems that there is this possibility." ”

At this time and then, the situation that Wang Nuo said a week ago was a low-probability event at that time, but as the market gradually confirmed his views, the probability of things happening is slowly increasing.

"It can't be, how could he have seen this a week ago. Chu Muwei's thinking was a little messy: "But 3900 really has a chance to be broken." ”

"As long as 3900 is broken, Wang ...... Whatever the king is, his opinion is likely to be correct. Chu Muwei had goosebumps all over his body.

Just when Chu Muwei had not suppressed the shock in his heart, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index suddenly raised its head and began to try to touch and hit the 3,900-point mark.

"It's kind of crazy. ”

"This is a crime against the wind. ”

"The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the World Financial Exchange have just issued a warning, do they want to force the capital side to adjust?"

"The benefits are moving!"

At the same time, just seeing this phenomenon, Tao Keren, Chu Muwei, Zhou Minghai, Ye Yaohua and other people in the industry have raised their hearts to their throats, and everyone knows that this is financial capital forcing the regulators.

I pinched the funds and threw them into the securities market, and in addition to the currency lost due to the exchange rate fluctuations, where did so much money come from in the domestic market? What should I do if I am short of money? Should the central bank, which has a large amount of money in hand, have blood transfusions?

As soon as the central bank transfuses blood, it is good, and the general trend has been formed.

"This is the financial world. Wang Nuo's eyes lit up.

Capital is profit-seeking, and as long as there are sufficient profits, let alone pry into market trends, aren't all people doing the buying and selling of heads? This kind of thing that will not be judged illegal at all, financial capital will not feel the slightest pressure at all.

"The big drama is on stage, I'll bet you to lose!" Wang Nuo watched the CSI 300 index jump directly above 3950 in a few minutes, missing dozens of profit margins, but he didn't mean to be frustrated.

Because this means that a greater downside space has been opened, financial capital will definitely have to deduct 4,000 points, but Wang Nuo feels that this group of people will fail.

"The next round of reverse repurchase information is also coming out. Wang Nuo had this thought in his heart.

Moments later, the central bank announced the implementation of another 100 billion 14-day reverse repurchase operation, and the big drama began.