Chapter 446: Faster than the Parties
Wang Nuo is short-term stability, and he has also drawn arguments and intervals, so for him, it is only the first step of the long march.
There are still 14 trading days to go, and a change can directly make him lose his previous efforts.
What's even more difficult is that the market is excessively upward, which is a loss for Wang Nuo, and the market turns down, which is also a defeat for Wang Nuo.
A change must be offset by another reverse change, and then let the data enter the range on the 29th, the last trading day of March, and the arguments must also be determined, so that Wang Nuo's research report can be considered correct.
So...... I can only wait, the first day is in the middle, and it is just the beginning.
On the 11th, the stock market fluctuated in a narrow range, the national team reduced its holdings, and the index was in the range.
Lu Maoxin is as stable as Mount Tai.
On the 12th, the stock market fluctuated in a narrow range, the national team reduced its holdings, and the index was in the range.
Wang Nuo believes that the victory is in hand.
On the 13th, the stock market fluctuated upward, breaking through 3,900 points, the national team reduced its holdings, and the index was not in the range and seemed to be showing signs of rising.
Lu Maoxin is full of anticipation.
On the 14th, the stock market fluctuated and fell, the national team reduced its holdings, and the index returned to the range.
Wang Nuo's mentality has changed from expectation to learning, and in the case of a certain outcome, the changes in data, the dance of market psychology, and the trading methods of various capitals are all good learning materials.
In this way, the second full week of March passed, and at the close of trading on the 15th, people in the industry looked back and saw that the cognition of market variables in their hearts was accumulating, and some voices finally began to raise their heads.
"The process of marketization starts with deleveraging, with capacity adjustment as fundamental support, and with the release of chips as further catharsis?"
"When will the national team reduce its holdings? Is it a structural adjustment, or is it considered to be at a high level on the data side at this time? Is this an extension of the strategy side, or is it a self-adjustment of the data side?"
"In the long run, the national team's retreat from A-shares is inevitable......"
"Where is the money going, in what way, and what is the impact?"
Immediately after the market closed on Friday, financial institutions threw out a bunch of reports and opinions, and by now, everyone was sure of one thing, that is, the reduction of state-owned capital was a foregone conclusion.
Fortunately, the financial market at this moment must be able to withstand this kind of selling, and on the other hand, perhaps it is precisely because the market at this time can withstand the selling pressure that the national team has decided to reduce its holdings.
The question then changed, will the market not stand it first, or will the national team complete the reduction target first?
From the perspective of capital, does the market have enough funds to take over these selling orders? and even if there is, whether it is willing to take over at this position is also a doubt.
Another question on the capital side is also very interesting: money flows from market investors to the national team, and then what happens to it? It must be spent, how to spend it? Can it inject some positive factors into the market? In turn, does it support the point at this time, or even with a medium- and long-term positive impact?
The chaos of the market and the ingenuity of the situation are not well seen by people in the industry.
Among the many voices and many research reports, colleagues who have read Wang Nuo's manuscript immediately recalled it.
In the Saturday issue of Financial Observer, March 9, there were two articles in the "Financial Prospect" section, one of which accurately predicted the phenomenon of the national team's reduction of holdings.
From data to direct inducements, from economic fundamentals to political strategy, Wang Nuo's view is very accurate, because ...... He deduces the process from the results, and it is strange that the articles he writes are inaccurate.
However, the financial market is powerful, even if the research report is right first, it does not mean that the variables have disappeared, the situation is changing all the time, the data side and the strategy side are mutually influencing and deciding each other, and there are not no analysts who make a voice similar to Wang Nuo.
Everyone looks at it, but the investment strategy does not dare to change significantly, even if there are some small changes, but ...... Wang Nuo doesn't care, so the energy of the honest pen is not consumed, and Wang Nuo himself knows that it may not be that there is no change in the objectivity, but that he does not have this will subjectively.
The research report is sent back, and it is quasi-accurate, others love to believe it or not, Wang Nuo thinks...... It has nothing to do with him.
However, in the field of face brushing, the relationship is very large.
"The shareholding reduction plan has been confirmed, but when it is said to be a plan, it is actually adjusted according to market changes, in the final analysis...... It still depends on how the data changes. Jingcaida, Song Yuanhan finally confirmed the news in this regard, but this news made him shiver directly.
"Why do we only know now?" Lu Maoxin also cried with a sad face, a little unwilling.
Why did you go there earlier? Only now have it been determined that a few state-owned institutions have plans to reduce their holdings? The whole world knows about it, but what about the advantages of good information? How can it be that in retrospect, it has become a disadvantage?
"Because ......" Song Yuanhan looked at Lu Maoxin and sighed: "The direction of the plan has not been determined until now, and the front is just a temptation." ”
"You mean......" Lu Maoxin couldn't help but spit out a mouthful of old blood: "The information has not been released, and the research report has come first?"
What is the concept? That is to say, when Wang Nuo published the research report, even the national team itself was not sure that it would have a plan to reduce its holdings.
The national team followed the instructions of the superiors to go to the market for interviews and temptations, and then they found out...... Hey, there is a door, you can implement the plan, echo the strategic side, and the leader's instructions are right.
As a result, the professionals of the state-owned institutions responsible for the investment immediately gave the plan, making it clear that the leadership was awesome and had already seen through this.
"Is it difficult? In the financial market, guessing is a basic skill. Song Yuanhan sighed again and said, "It's just that some people have a keen sense of smell." ”
"Sharper?" Lu Maoxin spit out another mouthful of old blood, this is called being more sensitive?
Before the two sessions have further calls for marketization, or even after this variable, the mainstream of the market still believes that there is a high probability and space for upside.
How many people can quickly respond from this call, through the analysis of data and strategies, directly bet on state-owned institutions to reduce their holdings, promote marketization, and can withstand the economy?
How many analysts like Wang Nuo give 100% sure answers?
It's not keenness, it's a stud in particular, and it's right for now, unless...... The market is moving again.
At this moment, Lu Maoxin was a little heartbroken, if his winning rate was more than eighty percent before the news was confirmed, now it was directly reduced to less than fifty percent.
It's a very simple road, when the data side can't withstand the pressure, the state-owned assets institutions will definitely stop reducing their holdings and selling, and the data side is too violent, and the national team will immediately be a big seller.
Isn't it very scientific? What does it mean? It means that the index can't fall too deep or rise too high, and for the rest of March, state-owned institutions will slowly pass on their chips to institutions that intend to take over.
The market is unvariable, everyone is full of tacit understanding, and the two sessions are also facing the end, only some things are unexpected by the market, and other things have been digested by the market in advance, and this little unexpected thing is that the marketization is a bit large.
Next, there are not many possibilities for Lu Maoxin to be able to turn the situation around, one is to suddenly make a big change, such as a certain beard flying a plane again, and the other is ...... The index may also rise above 3900, and the range delineated by Wang Nuo is only 50 points, which is too narrow.
It's a pity, let alone Song Yuanhan, even Lu Maoxin doesn't have much confidence, Wang Nuo can deduce the situation before the parties, can he miss after occupying the 50-point range of the maximum probability?
It's a bit hard.