Hong Cai's speech was extraordinarily profound and heavy, fully demonstrating the vision, thinking, and responsibility that a country's top think tank should have.

The opening title is concise and concise, and it contains indescribable domineering.

"It's a great pleasure to share with you. ”

"Today's topic is very big, it is to analyze the trend of China's economy, and time is limited, so I will mainly elaborate on two issues of general concern to everyone. ”

"First, where are the risks to China's economy. ”

"Second, where is the growth point of China's economy? ”

The fifth brother was in high spirits, and suddenly recalled the appearance of Boss Hong solemnly revising the document, and realized that today's speech might be very important.

"First, look for future risks. ”

"Where the risks are, the decision-makers have a very clear consensus, and there should be further requirements at the upcoming conference. ”

"In this regard, my personal judgment is that the first battle in 2018 is to prevent financial risks. ”

"From the perspective of international lessons, the outbreak of financial risks is often caused by five factors, and there are five major directions for China to prevent financial risks. ”

"First, curb asset bubbles. ”

"What is an asset bubble? Asset prices are rising too fast. What is asset price? There are two types of asset prices, stock prices and house prices. Theoretically, it is necessary to prevent stock prices from rising too fast, but also to prevent house prices from rising too fast. But this time, I am talking about suppressing bubbles, not the real estate, not the stock market. ”

"Because we predict that in the next three to five years, the Chinese stock market will be in a state of slow rise, and there will be no so-called bubble. ”

"Three reasons. ”

"First, the securities regulator now regards monitoring as the first priority. ”

The leader of the securities regulatory department nodded slightly.

"Second, regulators are now very concerned about over-the-counter allocations. The two major pools of funds: banks and insurance, are very well monitored. ”

The participants in the banking section nodded slightly.

"Third, the rapid advancement of IPOs. It is also unlikely that the stock price will rise too much. ”

Many company CEOs who were queuing up nodded slightly.

"These three reasons lead to the fact that the stock market will basically be a slow bull in the future, rising slowly. ”

"Without taking into account some black swan events, we can basically confirm that the stock market has no basis for a surge and does not have the conditions to produce a bubble. ”

"Some friends may want to ask what kind of black swan it is, but I can't say it here, but when it really happens, you will definitely know it as soon as possible. ”

Hong Cai paused meaningfully for a moment.

Until here, although the discussion was very valuable, it was still within the scope of Fang Xiaowu's knowledge, and it was not unusual.

Next, the conversation turned to the real estate bubble, and the peak protruded.

"One of the very distinct features of the real estate industry is that the supply of housing often exceeds the rigid demand. ”

"Because as long as the house has the function of living, it will have two other attributes, financial attributes and investment attributes. ”

"Then there will be two additional demands: investment demand and speculative demand. ”

"The two major demands drive the supply of real estate, which will inevitably exceed the rigid demand, and the supply will exceed the rigid demand, which will inevitably form a bubble. ”

"So we can recognize that there must be bubbles, big or small. ”

“……”

"Suppression has two meanings, one is that you can't continue to blow big bubbles, otherwise it will be extremely troublesome in the future. The other layer can't be pierced now, otherwise it will be very troublesome now. ”

"Dilemma. ”

"So what should I do?"

"A combination of short- and medium-term countermeasures and long-term mechanisms. ”

"There are two policies for short- and medium-term responses. ”

"1. Strictly control speculative demand and investment demand, pull demand and control supply. ”

"Now the people's impulse to buy a house is very strong, each family in the first-tier cities can buy two sets, and now everyone wants to buy a third set. Because he felt as if only a house could resist inflation. So people have the impulse to buy the third set, the fourth set, to enter speculative demand and investment demand. ”

"Once the purchase and loan restriction policy is lifted, the housing supply will inevitably explode, and the people will put the noose around their necks. ”

The substantive exposition is more adequate than this, and the little fifth brother is refining the key points, and when he heard this, a sigh suddenly rose in his heart.

The ideas of ordinary people are simple, simple, and naturally seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and most people do not understand these economic principles, and are often experts who say what they believe or are limited to past experience.

Can house prices go up?

Is it possible for house prices to fall?

Keeping value and making money, why not buy it?

However, the total amount of wealth in society is limited, it doesn't matter if you buy a set, it doesn't matter if he buys a set, but when everyone thinks so, a lot of money is invested in the real estate sector, which together pushes up housing prices to this extremely dangerous level.

Beat the drum and pass the flowers, and the drum will stop.

Properties that seem to hold their value are brewing imbalances in the rest of the world after devouring a lot of money.

Once it can't be controlled, it will be overturned.

Under the nest, will there be no eggs?

It seems to have become a social consensus that first-tier cities will not plummet, but not plummeting does not mean that they cannot fall.

Fang Xiaowu is not afraid of falling housing prices, what about the part of the Chinese who take out loans to pay for housing?

The feeling of wealth evaporating overnight must be uncomfortable.

A single apartment for self-occupation seems to be unaffected, but the social and economic development has slowed down or even stagnated, prices have skyrocketed, wages have not risen, and then the house is provided, is it fun?

Multi-suite investment or speculation, the foundation is thick, the teeth are stiff, and the foundation is thin...... Back in the day, on the streets of Tokyo, red plums bloomed everywhere.

As soon as the enthusiasm for controlling the people's house purchase came out, Fang Xiaowu immediately knew what to talk about next-

"2. Restrain developers. ”

"We can't let them continue to build indefinitely......"

As half a developer, Little Fifth Brother understands this more deeply.

Developers are not a whole, but individuals, each with a single goal - the pursuit of maximum profits.

As an individual, no matter what risk you have and what bubble, I will change my career after building this real estate!

Or there are some who are simply kidnapped by real estate and land, and it is difficult to ride a tiger - such as Li Zhan, who is in prison at the moment.

Everyone thinks so, and the result is the competition to see who can build the fastest.

When the drum stops, those who cash out of the game will win, and only when they die in it will they know that they will regret it.

This is true of people, and even more so of capital.

Even if there is a clear time point for collapse, there are still a lot of lucky people who want to speculate, always thinking "I will definitely be able to escape", not to mention that no one knows when it will collapse?

Hong Cai only talked about two points, but in Fang Xiaowu's opinion, there was actually a third point......

Don't talk about it.

At such times, there is no point in any criticism, and only by working together can we have a chance to get out of the predicament.

Following the extension of Hong Cai's train of thought, Fang Xiaowu has never stood at a higher angle to look at the overall situation of society.

Thoughts are flying.

What does it take to make this country stand tall in the world?

What can be done to make this nation better?

How can we make the kind and diligent part of the compatriots no longer be maliciously harvested by capital?

The country, the nation, and the compatriots think from top to bottom, but in Fang Xiaowu's heart, the importance is the opposite.

The topic is too big to gain for the time being, but this idea is like a seed, deeply rooted in a vast and vast mind because of the plug-in, waiting for the day when the seedling will grow.

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