If the bet is good, the expected information is not released, or the direction and strength are deviated, of course, the probability of loss is large.

Objectively speaking, the current price figures reflect the direction and expected strength of the strategy, the probability of falling in the market outlook is large, the decline space is small, and the probability of rising in the market outlook is very low and the upside is large.

Calculated, multiply the upper and lower space by the probability of rising and falling, and the answer will be relatively close.

There is a 90% probability of losing 10 yuan, and at the same time, a 10% probability of earning 90 yuan, and it is not impossible to gamble on a wave.

After adding the stock market variables that you know in advance, the probability actually changes, but until the moment the market changes, Wang Nuo still has uncertain variables lingering in his mind.

Until...... The strategic change is finally out.

"The strictest environmental regulations in history may be introduced. ”

The industry said that the new regulations will affect the entire secondary industry, and the raw material supply chain may be readjusted. ”

"The supply of industrial raw materials is tight, prices are bound to rise, and the black market is rising again and again. ”

The financial media is the most sensitive to policy changes in the world, and even says that they have prepared a variety of different plans before there is a significant change in strategy, and they will publish corresponding articles whenever the fundamentals change accordingly.

People inside the financial circle don't find it weird either, because ...... The devil knows if these voices are released by the main force, who can be sure that the so-called experts are not shouting for capital?

The strategy changes, the capital exerts its subjective initiative, and strives to influence the market, so that the data fluctuates in the direction they want, the bulls are naturally bullish, and the bears only hope to stop the bleeding.

However, other markets may still have to fight, and there is no doubt that the environmental protection field and the new energy industry are optimistic, and the difference is only how much it rises, not whether it rises or not.

The chaotic nature of the market is also undoubtedly revealed at this moment, but steel companies, coal and other industries should not have a sharp downward trend, because short-term prices have risen, and ...... The big leaders have corresponding investment quotas in strategic and favorable areas.

A complex, mutually strangled situation is happening, which is an outsider's business, and for Wang Nuo, the changes in the futures market are already developing towards expectations.

"The rebar futures contract alone, the total position is close to 3 million hands, the strategy is good, the bulls attack upward, how can the bears be able to block it?"

"Night disc is really crazy. At the beginning of the night, watching the numbers jump high, Yuan Rongxin also had a psychedelic feeling.

The price of rebar jumped directly from around 3,015 yuan per ton, and the number of 3,140 yuan per ton was reported at the beginning of the night market, an increase of more than 4%, not to mention the highest price yesterday, all the moving averages of last year were destroyed.

Coking coal from around 1125 yuan per ton, and coke to form a peerless double coke, instantly blocked the limit, after all...... The relevant factories do not know how many will be shut down, and it is strange that the supply side is not tightened, and the price of 1172 yuan per ton is enough to make the bears who were a little ambitious in the early stage want to hang themselves.

Of course, the market psychology can not be in just a few days, it is enough to determine the most objective price for the corresponding target, chasing the rise and killing the fall is the psychology of ordinary investors, and it is also the main force that hopes that the market will come out of the curve.

In the next few days, there is still a little soup and water left in the short positions that can run, and the short positions that are too heavy need to worry about not losses, but ...... Losses into debt.

Thursday, February 14th.

The beginning of the financial market is a little crazy, the environmental protection sector rose by more than 7%, the new energy sector gave a 5% increase, the peerless bifocal said that there is no suspense about the limit, and the rebar followed suit, as long as it is related to industrial raw materials, almost all of them have given the corresponding increase.

"3328 yuan, 1219 yuan! boss?" Ye Yaohua didn't sleep all night, and almost immediately cast his eyes on Wang Nuo.

"It's a bit too much. Yuan Rongxin also swallowed his saliva, feeling that the world was so crazy.

On the basis of the rise of more than 20%, there will be two more big rises, based on yesterday's price, which may be around 10%, and based on the price of the previous period, that is...... It's close to 40%.

Everyone also has a holistic understanding of the financial markets, and is well aware of the reasons for today's situation: the human factor is strong.

The stock market is stable, the foreign exchange market is stable, and the bond market is stable...... The vast majority of the market does not give much room for operation, but financial capital needs to eat meat and drink blood, and suddenly a place full of hot spots appears.

The current futures market has the potential to become a meat grinder created by capital, a place where drums are beaten.

Most capital thinks that where the price is, the price will be there, because the supply is tight, the supply side is so big, the demand is there, and it is strange that it cannot be speculated.

Wang Nuo was also surprised, he thought that the price of futures would rise, but he really didn't think about it...... That's not enough.

In fact, the strength exerted by the change in the strategy to the market, a 10% is almost enough, and the rest will slowly fluctuate and adjust, and the market will tend to stabilize in the future.

The so-called long-term optimism in the industry is actually a lie, everyone knows that the long-term is a return to stability, and the short-term is optimistic.

"There is an early profit, it seems to be ...... You don't need to reduce your position. Wang Nuo also thought of a question.

Even if the market has a tendency to become a gathering place for funds, the bottom of the price has an objective basis, that is to say, the increase in the early stage should be very stable, and there is speculation and market psychology in the later stage, which will also be based on this basis.

Then the question arises, the bulls hold this view, the bears are powerless to suppress the price on this basis, how can the index change?

"Wait and see. Wang Nuo made up his mind very simply, anyway, the money was earned, just sit back and watch the situation change.

Here, 4877 hands went in, the price reached 3328 from 3057, and the profit was 13.216670, and then there were 2174 hands, the price rose from 3017 to 3328, and the amount earned was 6.761140, a total of 19.977810 yuan.

Coking coal is 1,576 lots, 1,164.5 to 1,219, with a profit of 5,153,520 yuan, and then 743 lots, 1,128 to 1,219, with a quota of 4,056,780 yuan, a total of 9,210,300 yuan.

The total profit on the book is 29,188,110 yuan, which is close to 50% in the blink of an eye, which is faster than robbing a bank.

The main thing is...... The market is being speculated, and the yield of 50% will almost be a stable number, and no matter how the market changes, it is unlikely to break through this foundation, but ...... If you have a contract, you will make a profit.

If it is not for tomorrow, it is destined to gap high, directly causing the price to have up and down space, and now it is impossible to complete the increase in the upper limit, Wang Nuo actually thinks that it will be better to add a position, but his idea is also the collective thinking of the bulls, so everyone can't buy it.

Market psychology determines price, and price reacts to market psychology, and the futures market is brewing a game of beating the drum and passing flowers.

Countless people in the industry immediately began to move.