There is no 100% probability in the financial market, even if the Fed raises interest rates, the probability of the dollar rising and falling on the day is only close to half and half, because the market price always stands on the premise of digesting all variables.

But it is precisely because of this that the long and short sides have the conditions for hedging, anyway, the upper and lower probabilities and space are almost equal, so it depends on whose funds are more.

However, now the black futures are slightly inflated prices, not much, but in the past it was enough to kill, so ...... The calculation of the bulls is very complicated.

There are so many possibilities, why do you come to the conclusion that the volume is bound to explode?

"Why can't I see such a big probability?" Wu Xuan was stunned by this, not to mention that he was close to Wang Nuo in terms of probability, and he didn't even have the slightest bias.

According to normal derivation, shouldn't the probability be evenly distributed on the four lines of volume and price? Why did Wang Nuo dare to firmly reduce the factors that have lost volume?

Wu Xuan really wanted to break open Wang Nuo's skull to see what was inside.

The trading volume continues to decline, has approached the level of two or three thousand hands per minute, the selling order is not out, the buying is at the position of 2,850 yuan per ton, and the rebar and black futures seem to be artificially stabilized at a high level.

If this is the case, the futures market is to be made a banker, the price is only slightly distorted, when the time comes, everyone guess the dealer to open big and small, enter the market to play a few hands.

Wu Xuan also seemed to breathe a sigh of relief, although he didn't want Wang Nuo to make a mistake, but in his heart he was more inclined not to make a big incident.

If the trading volume is too explosive, something will happen in the futures market, and there will be too many variables, and analysts will be better off......? The probability of falling behind is very high.

If you are not careful, a futures market analyst like Wu Xuan will lose face and lose her heart, and it is not impossible for him to be listed by the financial media and rubbed on the ground.

Chief Wu now only has one lyric echoing in his heart: Plain and calm is the truest.

However, as long as he saw Wang Nuo's calm expression with a hint of expectation, Wu Xuan said that it was very plain to go, which was obviously the rhythm of the accident.

Moreover......

"Anyway, my public research report also pointed out the probability of entering a high-risk area, and no matter how the market goes, there will be no mistakes or omissions in the previous research report. Wu Xuan reluctantly thought that the research report he sent was the so-called "cautiously optimistic, likely to fall, and cautious to shock" panacea report.

At most, because of Wang Nuo's remarks, he tends to be bullish, and Wu Xuan's old fritters are very stable anyway.

Wang Nuo didn't study the pressure above, he just felt ...... The calmer the market, the more amazing what is likely to be brewing.

It is possible that the bears are waiting for the bulls to pull up the price and then sell short at a higher price.

As soon as Wang Nuo came up with this idea, the rebar market changed again, the price of 2850 yuan per ton was broken, and the price of the main contract in January began to slowly rise from 2850 yuan per ton, 2851, 2852, 2853......

Slowly it went up.

"Bulls pull up?" Wu Xuan was almost scared into a novice next to him.

"No, it could be pulled by the bears. Wang Nuo's eyes lit up, and he said casually: "Or it was pulled by scattered investors, but ...... I think it's useless. ”

"Short or scattered investors? Wu Xuan seemed to have returned to his elementary school career, and suddenly felt that his brain was not enough, but he still quickly understood what Wang Nuo meant, and he immediately sorted out his remarks and prepared to say his opinion.

The market change in the next moment made Wu Xuan close his mouth.

I saw that after the price of the futures contract reached 2,855 yuan per ton, suddenly a large selling order of market price transaction fell down, and it ...... in an instant There was a moment of silence.

All the market participants had the playful smile of the bulls in their minds.

2,850 yuan per ton to open a bullish position, deducting the handling fee, 2,855 yuan to close the position, that is to say...... Either hedge at this price, or I'll leave.

It's embarrassing.

The so-called bulls and bears, the head refers to the position, and the long and short refer to the direction, that is, the bulls and the bears are not the same person, but now the bulls are obviously the main force in control of the situation, but not necessarily on the bears' side.

Wang Nuo never expected that such a small normal tentative action would suddenly trigger a trading volume in the range of 2,850 yuan per ton to 2,855 yuan per ton.

But just looking at these relatively scattered lists, Wang Nuo knew that the main force was not very involved.

"There is an old man who drew a circle on the South China Sea......" Wu Xuan's mind began to have singing voices floating again, but at his age, the songs he listened to were really old.

"The main force has drawn out the area, and the scattered funds have begun to bet. Soon, Wu Xuan reacted, sighed, and said, "The volume is unexpectedly large." ”

Yes, 2850 yuan per ton is the main force of the bulls on defense, and 2855 yuan per ton is the price that the main force of the bulls does not want to break through for the time being, then, whether it is bearish or bullish, it is okay to hedge in this range.

Wang Nuo felt that he had been taught a lesson, and this small temptation can sometimes stir the nerves of market participants, and then ...... Four or two dials a thousand pounds.

But Wang Nuo and Wu Xuan's views are different, and the volume that has erupted now undoubtedly supports his views.

"There were no surprises. Wang Nuo was relieved.

Ride the wall to place bets, and then the main hedge, if the honest pen determines the future volume is correct, the next thing will not change anything.

The short confrontation between the bulls and the bears, Wang Nuo also understood that this was the trader's job, but he learned a hand, which can be regarded as a small gain.

"Why aren't there any accidents?" Wu Xuan, who was standing next to Wang Nuo, was crazy, and he found that he couldn't keep up with Wang Nuo's thinking.

Scattered investors enter the market to open positions, and then the main force of long and short can also not move, why is there no surprise?

If the bears don't enter, won't the bulls pull up?

Without the corresponding hedging disk, T+0 will not be able to do it, will the bulls choose to hold positions overnight? Will the total market position increase sharply? Will the regulator take action to rectify it?

Will there be information about fundamentals that support or suppress prices?

There are as many variables as there is water in the ocean, so why is Wang Nuo sure that "there will be no accidents"?

"Sure enough, it's 65% of the energy consumption, and after determining the trading volume, the variable of the reduction is really not one or two. Wang Nuo sighed in his heart.

In the morning trading, the rebar trading volume exceeded 3 million hands, and the main force of the bulls came out to harvest once, gather chips, and then draw a circle, and the market consciously fluctuated.

When Wu Xuan was still doubting Wang Nuo's point of view, the market opened in the afternoon, and the main force of the market finally took over the trading order of black futures, coupled with speculative arbitrage and high-frequency operations of small and medium-sized funds, the market exploded.

Ten minutes, 100,000 hands.

Ten minutes, 100,000 hands.

Ten minutes, 200,000 hands.

Ten minutes, 200,000 hands.

10 minutes, 300,000 hands......

On October 8th, the single-day rebar futures trading volume on Monday, breaking three million hands in the morning, breaking four million hands in the afternoon, and seven million hands in the afternoon, directly announced that the market has entered an inflection point, and the victory or defeat is no longer important, and the total position of four million hands is placed there, announcing that the market has entered an explosive period.

The risks are enormous, and the idlers are scattered.