17th, Sunday, evening.

"Ahem, ahem...... You mean, you think the market has over-digested the downward expectations, and do you think the upward probability should be greater after the strength of this expectation weakens?" Sitting in the villa with his niece Tao Xiu and Wang Nuo eating a meal from a well-known restaurant, Zhao Guohua almost choked to death by a small sip of liquor.

Poor Zhao Guohua, his mind is to show what is called "I can make you better", but now Wang Nuo's attitude is full of "You can't do it over there".

Meirui, and even the more mainstream voices in the circle, believe that the domestic futures market and the black futures field should be on the upside while under pressure, that is, they will return at any time.

This is a neutral point of view, and it is also a conclusion that is completely in line with the law of data plane changes, and it is basically not wrong.

The difference is that Zhao Guohua and the Meirui Group he works in both believe that the return visit will come at any time, and it should not be too far, while Wang Nuo's view is ...... Poles apart.

Wang Nuo believes that the market has over-digested the downward expectations, and the current price has the possibility of further stabilization and upward movement.

Yes, even if the strategy is good, the mainstream still has the expectation of a market adjustment after the market, just like the dollar fell after the Fed raised interest rates, which is called digesting expectations in advance.

Insiders know that this is not only related to the strategy, but also to the impact on the data, if it is really guessed by Wang Nuo, then the market will move towards another possibility, that is...... Whether it will shift from over-digesting downside expectations to over-digesting upside expectations.

And then, it's complicated.

The chaotic nature of financial markets is really self-explanatory, so it can feel confusing.

"The fundamentals can support the current direction of movement, or even ...... More force. Wang Nuo looked at Zhao Guohua with a little pity and spit back the wine in the cup because of coughing.

There are really a lot of local tyrants in the financial circle, Tao Xiu, the fourth uncle, really doesn't have much restraint in spending money, tonight's meal is made by a chef from a well-known restaurant, and the wine is naturally not a cheap product.

Wang Nuo could only say...... He was born poor, so poverty limited his imagination, and Zhao Guohua actually felt very happy to consume it when he spent so much money on a meal.

"But the strategic side will not allow for sustained investment in this direction. As if irritated to his throat by alcohol, Zhao Guohua's voice was slightly higher, and his tone was full of incredulity: "Do you think the strategy side will be indifferent? I mean, the risks are magnifying, can't you see it?

"Affordable. Wang Nuo expressed his opinion.

"But I don't want to bear it!" Zhao Guohua used a categorical tone, "The Chinese market will not have this possibility, in this case, due to the rise and fall restrictions in the early stage, the market will not even have a time period beyond the control of the strategic side, there will be no front, no middle non-existent, and no later stage." ”

"Maybe there is?" Wang Nuo frowned, a little dissatisfied with Zhao Guohua's words.

"Impossible. Zhao Guohua smiled bitterly and said, "I hope there is, I think there may be in the future, but I don't think there is a ...... Don't look at me like that, when it comes to patriotism, I love China, not the United States, just like you. ”

Whether it is because of interests or feelings, there is no doubt that the vast majority of overseas Chinese hope that the motherland will become strong and better.

When China is strong, it is good for the Chinese, except for ...... Some interests appeal to different goods.

The same is true for Zhao Guohua, China is powerful, and all institutions, including Meirui, have a greater demand for business in China, and he, a Chinese, will more or less be stained.

However, Zhao Guohua and other overseas Chinese have very complicated perceptions of the motherland, and others do not mention it for the time being, Zhao Guohua feels that many places in China seem very hard, old-fashioned, and very ...... Not the lord of the people.

Looking at the financial market alone, Zhao Guohua can't see the so-called degree of freedom at all.

Look at the stock market, Nima, to say that state-owned capital is the banker, there is nothing wrong with it, the weighted stocks move casually, and the index dances.

What's even more irritating is that because of many complex reasons, the history of China's financial development is a history of policy control, and no matter how powerful a financial genius is, in such a market, he must also feel what is called the three meetings of the Great China Bank.

Wang Nuo didn't feel the so-called freedom, but he felt ...... Survival of the fittest.

Besides, in the past, strict control was because the fundamentals did not support the so-called freedom, and when the strength is strong, it is inevitable that the freedom within the scope will be given, and the international market will be so free? Let the big institutions be the bankers and let the state be the bankers, in fact, that's just the case.

"Uncle Guohua also thinks it will change, why not now?" Wang Nuo asked something that made Zhao Guohua stunned.

yes, why not now?

Fundamentals have this foundation, why can't it change now?

Isn't there such a thing as change all the time? Why can't it be now?

"Probability. Zhao Guohua didn't eat dry food, so he calmed down immediately: "In terms of probability, you can't think that this time will change every time, because the probability is low, but if you give the same opinion this time, the probability is not small, and it is ...... When it goes wrong, almost everyone makes a mistake, and the risk is lower. ”

"So the profits are also reduced. Wang Nuo blinked, and once again said something that made Zhao Guohua feel extremely irritable.

The risk is high, the benefit is large, and the risk is low, and the benefit is low.

Fools know this, but fools will bet on small probability events every time...... No, if you bet on a small probability event every time, then you have to bet small, and maybe there will be a profit overall.

However, Zhao Guohua has a little understanding of Wang Nuo's position, is it a light position? It is an ordinary position, and it is an ordinary position that only becomes an ordinary position after the heavy position and the profit appears.

If the risk control is not done well, investment is not investment, but gambling, which is the biggest difference between the financial market and the casino.

Zhao Guohua was about to go crazy, he found that he was quite helpless, obviously he wanted to help Wang Nuo, so that his nephew and son-in-law could feel the "warmth of the old Zhao family", but he didn't expect Wang Nuo to run into the pit by himself, and there was a kind of meaning to bury himself.

Given so much information and information, which eye of you, surnamed Wang, saw that it was bullish inside?

Meirui, and even the mainstream voice of the market, that sentence is not biased to be stable, it is okay to be bullish first, but the space and frequency must be controlled, Wang Nuo, are you ignoring this, you are too overly predicted for the rise on the timeline, what about the frequency? What about the probability?

If it's a bad ...... Huh? That's not right.

Zhao Guohua's heart was turbulent, and when he was searching his stomach and trying to organize words to admonish Wang Nuo, he suddenly remembered: Wang Nuo is okay if he dies.

It's a loss, it's planted, just pull it out of the pit, and when the time comes, everyone can be good brothers, and you can also let Wang Nuo see what is called "the warmth of the old Zhao family", not only the connections and background are powerful, but also the charcoal in the snow, it is definitely beautiful.

If Wang Nuo wins...... Zhao Guohua has a toothache, if Wang Nuo can smoke the mouth of the mainstream voice of the market, then what else is there to talk about "the warmth of the old Zhao family", hurry up and think about how to feel the "warmth of the old Wang family".

In the financial circle, the winner is king, and whoever wins is justified.