Chapter 173: The result is that it continues to rise
The profit and loss point is 2.7151 yuan, and the current price of the ETF is 2.786 yuan, which means that in the blink of an eye, Wang Nuo's average book profit of 709 yuan per contract has been achieved.
Each is 709 yuan, 236 is 167324 yuan, 239% profit, this is the option.
"Bullish!" In the office, Ye Yaohua's expression could not hide his surprise.
In the second quarter, the stock market rose by nearly 10%, but the renminbi depreciated slightly, and the official dared to raise the value of the renminbi, which is a little unexpected.
The most mainstream voice in the market is that the Chinese government wants to stabilize, the stock market falls first, the renminbi depreciates first, and then the official policy to stabilize the market, and finally withstands the pressure, allows the market to develop steadily, and strives to absorb the gains in the second quarter.
However, this mainstream approach must bear the huge pressure exerted by the international market, which is equivalent to a defensive counterattack, and the industry also believes that the official can defend itself, so it feels that the probability of rising in the middle line is not low.
The probability of rising is not low, but the upside is very small, and once you can't bear the pressure and need to vent the flood, the decline will happen, and the downside will ...... Very big.
Few can be sure that Chinese officials will abandon mainstream opinion and blatantly lock in the bottom of the currency's value.
It's not a defensive counterattack, it's an all-out attack.
Currency depreciation is equivalent to the outflow of funds out of the country, China's official approach now is that if you dare to flow out, I will dare to buy it back with foreign exchange reserves, if you flow out of 10 billion, I will buy back 11 billion, 3 trillion is there, who can bear it?
The official stabilized the renminbi exchange rate, and then exchanged the dollars in his hand for a large amount of renminbi, so he couldn't just pinch it in his hand and get moldy, right? Of course, it should be injected into the market, and the financial institutions would benefit immediately, and if there was more money in the market, inflation would occur, and prices would rise.
With the currency steadily rising and the market well funded, it is strange that the stock market is not rising, but the risks have become greater, and they have become greater.
"Once it crashes, it could be a stock market crash. Ye Yaohua's heart was turbulent, "So now the probability of rising is greater, and the room for falling is also greater, who would have thought that the country would be so tough?"
"No, Arnold's analysis ......" Ye Yaohua remembered Wang Nuo's series of analyses from beginning to end in his mind.
First of all, when everyone could not see the situation clearly, he entered the market and held call options, and when the market was deadlocked, Wang Nuo saw the psychology of the market, and then deduced the attitude of the country from the market psychology, and finally came to the conclusion that it was ...... It's going to go up today!
"That's a bit of an exaggeration. Ye Yaohua turned his head to look at Wang Nuo, his face was full of shock, "From the process to the result, there is no mistake or omission!
Wanli Institute of Finance.
"Society I'm Arnold, damn, that kid is a personal money printing machine!" When the market changed, Yao Shuliang was in Zhou Minghai's office, and when he saw the changes in the plate, he couldn't help but swallow his saliva, and his tone was full of envy: "Ah! I'm a fucking idiot, Arnold uses my account, why don't I follow!"
"Do you dare to follow? Arnold chose the entry point, when the market is suddenly uncertain, where do you think the part of the out-of-the-money option that is 200 yuan higher comes from? Those numbers are orders to buy for probability. Zhou Minghai glanced at Yao Shuliang and said, "You think the market will fluctuate sideways, and you still enter the market?"
"It's hard to dismantle, Brother Hai. Yao Shuliang grimaced.
"But you're right...... Zhou Minghai said with a smile: "Arnold, that kid, it's really a humanoid money printing machine." ”
"Based on 70,000 yuan, earning more than 200% every day, Arnold will be the richest man in the world within a month. Yao Shuliang said with a grin.
"Small money is the same as big money, I just want to know, if it is big money, does he have that talent. Zhou Minghai sighed, his eyes full of expectation: "I really want to see it." ”
Wang Nuo's analysis was correct several times in a row, which undoubtedly opened the eyes of Zhou Minghai and Yao Shuliang, and they could even be sure that Wang Nuo was the strongest newcomer they had ever seen.
It's just that Wang Nuo always donates hundreds of thousands of dollars, and then comes to earn hundreds of thousands, which is completely a small capital operation, and the operation of large funds is completely different.
Quantity and price time and space, small funds only look at the price, large funds not only have to look at all, but also consider their own influence on the market, Wang Nuo is now a small wave that has almost no impact on the market, if he is given more funds, how will he operate?
Ye Yaohua also wanted to know, but what he needed to make sure was whether Wang Nuo would close the position at this time.
"If the renminbi depreciates back, the market will completely collapse, judging from the probability of loss and the existence of downside, at this time you can close your position, at least part of your position. Looking at the changes in the data, Ye Yaohua began to ask Wang Nuo's opinion.
"Let's hold a position, there's not so much room to fall. Wang Nuo sighed.
Zhou Minghai wanted to know what Wang Nuo would do if he had a large amount of money in hand, and Wang Nuo actually had the answer in his heart: increase the position!
Ordinary analysts see the risks and see that there is huge room for decline, but what are the inducements? When the renminbi cannot bear it, it is when the stock market crashes.
Wang Nuo knows very well that the RMB has appreciated this week, and what he is sure of is that the RMB can bear it.
In this case, there is not much room for decline, and the probability of decline and the room for decline form the current price, that is to say, the current number is low for Wang Nuo, and his eyes are full of profit margins.
"It's a pity...... There is no money, and there is not much energy. The reason why Wang Nuo sighed was that he had no capital.
70,000 has become nearly 240,000, and the energy has also decreased from about 1,500 points to more than 300 points, and the proportion of energy consumption this time is about 70%, and the rise and fall of the RMB currency value is indeed the most important reason for the formation of this stock market turning point.
"The risk of the market outlook is not small. Hearing that Wang Nuo didn't mean to reduce his position at all, Ye Yaohua was even more nervous, and he felt that he couldn't keep up with Wang Nuo's thinking.
"Economics is psychology, you think it's risky, most people think so, think of the Great Depression in the United States in '29. Wang Nuo shook his head and said, "Economics is psychology!"
"The market is good and the market is stable, which is a virtuous circle, and I won't believe that the top will make the recent financial market have an accident, and the index will not fall. ”
Ye Yaohua was speechless, financial analysis is such a thing, the public says that the public is reasonable, and the formation of market data is because of the differences in the cognition of participants.
When you talk about marketing, Wang Nuo talks about historical cases and psychology, who is right and who is wrong? Anyone can be right, and everyone can be right.
Finance is a consequentialist world.
"It should go up, but it's not likely enough for me to switch contracts. Wang Nuo felt a little regretful.
On Tuesday, July 3, the renminbi depreciated slightly, but the range between 6.75 and 6.76 stood firm, and the Chinese stock market stabilized.
On Wednesday, July 4, the renminbi continued to trade sideways between 6.75 and 6.76, with Chinese stocks edging up 0.5%.
On Thursday the 5th, the stability of the yuan has dispelled the panic in the market, and everyone knows that this time the top is real, and it has withstood the pressure of the external market at any cost, which also means that it ...... A new round of money throwing is about to begin, and the stock market has soared 2%.
As of the close of trading on the 6th, the yuan did not rise much in a week, but the stock market soared by nearly 5%.
Ye Yaohua, Zhou Minghai, Yao Shuliang and others almost went crazy.