Late at night, sitting on the office chair, looking at the stack of materials in his hand, Wang Nuo's words came to Green's mind.

"Wang, safe-haven currencies, you must be paying attention to safe-haven currencies, you must be focusing on safe-haven currencies, I have some information, you must be interested. ”

Indeed, judging from the market performance, Wang Nuo has long been sure that there are variables in safe-haven currencies, but he is not sure when the variables will break out, and he doesn't even know the trend when they break out.

Quite simple facts.

The type that accounts for the largest proportion of foreign exchange trading is carry trade, and many people think that safe-haven currencies are used to avoid risks, but most people don't know why, there is only one reason: low interest.

From the perspective of transaction structure, safe-haven currencies have low interest rates, so investment institutions will borrow safe-haven currencies, buy financing currencies, and earn interest margins.

When there is a big change in the market, the first thing that investment institutions need to do is to close their positions quickly, so everyone needs to borrow financing currencies and buy safe-haven currencies, which is a necessary way to close positions, so when the market risk increases suddenly, safe-haven currencies will be bullish.

People in the industry like Wang Nuo are very clear that safe-haven currencies have two characteristics, one is low interest rate, and the other is good liquidity.

Low interest rates mean ...... The economy is average, because the economic performance is very average, or relatively poor, so the strategy needs low interest rates to release liquidity and other factors, so as to stimulate economic development, from this point of view, the strategy is to hope that the currency will give a depreciation range.

The liquidity is too good, and the safe-haven currency will appreciate before and after the market upheaval, which happens to conflict with the pursuit of strategy, and the management has only one sentence for this: MMP.

Of course, if you want to become a safe-haven currency, it is a prerequisite that there is enough liquidity, and if the liquidity is large enough, it just shows that the market recognizes the credibility of the currency, which happens to be a good burden, and the management of the safe-haven currency cannot give up this advantage, so it ...... Continue to carry the weight.

The Australian dollar will continue to depreciate against the US dollar, in addition to determining the depreciation of the Australian dollar, Wang Nuo also determined that the probability of the US dollar at least stabilizing is extremely high.

The Australian dollar will definitely depreciate in a trend, so do investment institutions choose to gradually close their positions in the carry trade, or choose to gradually enter the market to buy the bottom?

Judging from the factor of decline, the probability of closing the position is relatively high.

From the analysis of these three words, it may be a gradual dip and position.

In the end, Wang Nuo's eyes were still foggy.

It's just that, fortunately, Green Corner, Tyrone, and Tyrone International can get a lot of data, and Wang Nuo only needs to wait for a while to see what choices investment institutions have made.

Gradually close the position, so which safe-haven currency will gradually appreciate in value, and then ...... The economic side cannot afford this kind of financial appreciation, until there is a strategic adjustment.

Will buying the bottom and adding positions, or making structural adjustments, support the successive depreciation of safe-haven currencies, and then ...... The economy in which the safe-haven currency is located digests this factor, and there will still be changes.

No matter how you look at it, as long as the Australian dollar is sure of a downward trend, Wang Nuo is extremely sure that safe-haven currencies will gradually attract the aggregation of variables, because one place moves, everywhere moves, and all the moving places can be digested by a concentrated explosion in a certain area.

This is the financial market, weird and chaotic.

While Wang Nuo was still thinking, Meng Han finally went over the things given by the green corner, and he walked in with a stack of materials.

"Mr. Wang, this is a preliminary analysis. Facing Wang Nuo, Meng Han brought some respect in his words and expressions, which was different from the perfunctory posture some time ago.

"Based on the information and opinions given by the Green Corner, I think the views they hold are complex and seem to be ...... It's contradictory, and they're concerned about the yen. Meng Han pointed out his own analytical conclusions: "The discourse of several other safe-haven currencies seems to be decent, and in their style, it is likely to be basic research." ”

"What a coincidence. Wang Nuo said in his mouth, but there were not too many surprises in his heart.

The market says that big is very big, and small is also very small, and the places that professionals pay attention to are actually the same, and it is normal for Green Corner and Wang Nuo to focus on the yen at the same time.

After opening the information, Wang Nuo first looked at the conclusion, and the disappointment on his face was overflowing.

Green Corner said it soundly, but in fact, they were not sure about the direction and time, so they turned to invest in the Australian dollar market, which they had been analyzing for months.

But the difference between the professional team and the grass class platform is that Green Corner easily discloses Wang Nuo's perception of the market with data, and the two just find a point of convergence: variables.

"Green Corner believes that the yen may cut interest rates further, the second quarter until now, the Japanese economy has performed very badly, if their operation in the Australian dollar is not wrong, the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the yen will increase with the passage of time, they can't withstand the pressure of the depreciation of the Australian dollar, the currency position reversal, the bad economy also needs a rate hike in the second quarter, for the third quarter and even the second half of the year to fight a foundation ......"

Meng Han first came to a wave of strategic analysis, and then began to analyze the data: "In April, Japan's over-the-counter retail foreign exchange margin trading volume exceeded 600 trillion yen, a very rapid growth, and more than 95% of it was the ...... of yen against the dollar."

"The volume increase price remains unchanged. Wang Nuo quickly grasped the point.

"Due to the weakening of the US dollar some time ago, the yen has moved from 0.0086 to around 0.009 against the US dollar, and zero interest rates are no longer enough to regulate the flow ......of funds in the market," Meng Han continued to analyze.

Now the yen has zero interest rate, that is, deposits are not interest-free in banks, and for happy Chinese, everyone will say: only fools save.

However, if the economy is not good and expectations for the future are not high, investors will hold the currency with the mentality of making less money and reduce consumption, and zero interest rate is not unacceptable.

This has a great impact on the yen, ordinary people always think that Japan is an export-oriented economy, in fact, they should be regarded as a domestic demand-based economic model, and it is a dead word for Chinese people to spend less, but ...... You have to have money to spend money.

This is how a vicious circle arises from a bad economy, a decrease in incomes, a decrease in willingness to spend, and a blow to the economy, which is also highly affected by changes in the world economic situation, as well as changes in Japan's industrial structure, such as B2B, and the shock changes in the import-processing-export model.

All in all, whether it is Green Corner, Wang Nuo, or even all the international financial institutions, they all feel that there may be huge variables accumulated in the yen system.