Chapter 567: Speak your mind
"Wang, how long will you stay on Hong Kong Island this time?" The next day, Wang Nuo came to the company early in the morning to continue reading the information, Green and Jonas came together, and even O'Reno, who was in charge of the transaction, followed the two.
The eyes of the three people in the green corner looking at Wang Nuo were full of expectation and a little dissatisfaction.
said that it was cooperation, but Wang Nuo used the green corner as a free worker, if it weren't for the "kindness" aura in play, the three foreigners would have forced the palace or left the peaches to do it.
"David, Qiao, and Lei, don't worry, I will stay on Hong Kong Island for at least ten days and half a month this time, at least ......" Wang Nuo snapped his fingers and said, "There is no problem in making an investment." ”
"Good!" Green's eyes lit up, and he quickly found a place to sit down, and asked Wang Nuo, "So, do you need us to describe the current situation first?"
"I already heard the report last night, so...... David, are you here to ask for credit? I have to say, well done. Wang Nuo smiled and complimented: "A little more than a month, more than 3% of the income, the green corner deserves to be the green corner." ”
"No, no, no, we're doing half the job at most, and there's a lot of position base in the yen market, and even if we don't have a part, the forward trade will definitely have a seven-figure gain. Green smiled happily, but still analyzed it objectively.
At this level, there is little room for mutual calculation in the communication between Wang Nuo and Lujiao, and it is obvious how the market goes, how their respective abilities are, and how much role they play.
As for the other departments of Tyrone International, Wang Nuo and Green Corner basically didn't pay much attention to it, because the work of those guys could be universally replaced.
Only the hard power of Green Corner's professional field, Wang Nuo's analysis and keen sense of finance, as well as the narrow communication channels between the government and the government, are irreplaceable.
And Wang Nuo came at a clever time, it is now Thursday, August 29th, there is still one day before the end of August, and then the two-day weekend is the last month of the third quarter to kick off.
It is well known that September is extremely important for financial markets, especially today, where the variables are simply too crowded.
Although Wang Nuo "didn't" seriously participate in financial investment some time ago, he didn't miss the data and strategic information, and in the eyes of everyone, he at least maintained the ability to participate in the project at any time.
"I am optimistic about the appreciation of the dollar. Wang Nuo did not have a trace of nonsense, and directly analyzed: "From the perspective of trade in the real economy, the Federal Reserve actually has a certain willingness to depreciate the dollar, but it just so happens that the recovery of the economy, the sideways shock of the price index and the net influx of funds have given a good basic ......."
"While a weak dollar would certainly meet some expectations, a return to a strong dollar could lead to more jobs, industrial growth, and investment flows as high gold and commodity prices are likely to trigger inflation concerns and higher bond yields. ”
"But at the same time, we should also see that the euro is desperate to reduce the pace of capital outflows, the euro is depreciating, eurozone funds are not flowing to the bond market, the yen is appreciating but not closing the carry exposure, and in the derivatives market, positions are tilted towards the dollar area. ”
Wang Nuo talked eloquently, although he didn't say too much data, but the analysis that focused on the strategic side was still agreed by the three people in the green corner.
In general, in the current international financial market, the real economy is stable in Europe, Japan is a little bit, North America is a little good, and emerging economies are very good.
Therefore, the U.S. dollar appreciates against the euro, rises steadily against the yen, and tends to stabilize the value of the currencies of emerging economies.
Judging by the data, this conclusion is also very easy to conclude that the inflation rate of the North American economy has not risen accordingly, but the appreciation of the dollar in two months has led to an influx of funds, and the economic vitality has definitely increased, and then ...... Uncle Sam is definitely inclined to maintain the phenomenon of a strong dollar for the time being.
If the real economy can digest these funds and the economy can develop again, the dollar must also maintain a strong posture, but the magnitude cannot be large.
Wang Nuo and Green Corner believed that the dollar would face an inflection point from September some time ago, but between July and August, the euro-dominated economy obviously could not withstand its own systemic pressure, and was unwilling to let the United States successfully complete a cycle of dollar appreciation and depreciation, so it dragged its feet.
As a result, the variables are pushed back to September, and the cycle is lengthened, and smartly, the cycle is lengthened, which is equivalent to an increase in both risk and return for the dollar.
Taking more risks and reaping more gains is what the dollar is about to do in this cycle.
Wang Nuo also speculated that the motherland's central mother may have secretly smoothed out her position by buying spot euros and forward dollars while meddling in the yen market, that is...... Probably made a superficial brother with the euro, and will continue to do so.
The attitude of the central mother towards the dollar is to buy at the spot and sell at the forward, anyway, it sounds good, and de-dollarization is also what everyone wants to do, but ...... I don't want to take the slightest extra risk.
The central bank seems to be making waves, but in fact it is very conservative, and even secretly shrinks the exposure of yen asset allocation in the derivatives market.
"I agree with your analysis, but we need to be careful that since inflation is not paying for the appreciation of the dollar, it proves that the influx of funds is temporarily lying in financial products, maybe it is to arbitrage interest in the United States and Europe, maybe short-term positions, if it is not converted into investment, the ceiling of dollar appreciation expectations will be depressed, and it may even be ...... Below the real-time index. Green said with a deep groan.
"The July non-farm payrolls data released in August was slightly lower than expected, but the dollar depreciated in August and then continued to appreciate, and I doubt it will continue like this. ”
"The Federal Reserve's three-three plan is impossible to achieve, lower than expected, higher than the previous value, so that the appreciation expectation continues, the August non-farm data released in September will determine the recent exchange rate trend, and will also determine the overall direction of the financial market next. ”
Jonas and Oreno are worried, money market investors in recent years have attached great importance to non-farm payrolls data, almost as a barometer of the dollar, and the changes in the dollar index involve all financial products, if the position is heavy, the first Friday of every month, is a life and death day.
The advantage of everyone now is that they know that the foreign exchange reserve seems to be secretly poking and poking the forward dollar position, and it should be inclined to think that the dollar will appreciate, but this is also just a probability, maybe the regular army side is taking two forward positions at the same time, and then ...... Earn spreads.
Judging from the data, Green Corner is really worried that the non-agricultural will come out and slap Lao Mei, which will be very unfun.
But it's not OK not to invest, what Green Corner is best at is doing things, they obviously have more than 50% probability factor in their hands, how can they not enter the market, their only consideration is how many positions to take, how to adjust the asset structure.
Wang Nuo's method is very simple, before he uses the honest pen, he is ready to speak freely about the green corner.