Chapter 184: Reverse Repurchase Trend
When he first met Tao Xiu, even if he was recognized by Tao Keren, Wang Nuo was not interested in reading the report of the Research Department of Huapu Fund, he couldn't see it.
It's different now, whether it's professional ability or work experience, Wang Nuo has made great progress compared to a few months ago, he really needs these things.
But Wang Nuo didn't think that he would purely accept help, in terms of research and analysis, he really didn't fear anyone with an honest pen in his hand.
So Wang Nuo's idea is: while accepting Tao Keren's help, he can return it.
There is mutual recognition, and in the next conversation, Wang Nuo and Tao Keren talked more deeply, and he also began to see the strength of the big fund.
"The Shanghai Stock Exchange stood firm at 3,670 points, up 4.6% last week, and Huapu's overall position in the stock market also rose slightly. ”
"According to the analysis of the industry, the official now has too much money in his hands, and some of it should be released to the securities market through reverse repo, about two or three hundred billion. ”
"The inflation rate is high, the capital market is recovering, and the proportion of fund holdings has increased by ......"
Once Tao Keren accepted Wang Nuo, many things were no longer hidden, and all kinds of data and all kinds of inside stories were said, in order to help Wang Nuo form an understanding of the entire securities market.
Wang Nuo can only guess how much money is in the market, the frequency and method of capital flow, how the data will go, what kind of official attitude and so on, but a predator in the circle like Huapu Fund can be called an analysis.
But Tao Keren can't give a definite argument, he just has more information, and the person responsible for analyzing the data is more professional, and it is almost never possible to give a definite opinion.
Because what the industry is doing now is to measure the top!
No one knows where the stock market will go, but everyone knows that the stock market cannot rise all the time, there will always be a top, and it will be adjusted when it rises almost, and if it is adjusted almost to see whether it is up or down, the stock market has always been like this.
"Huapu thinks there is a possibility of 4,000 points in the middle line?" Wang Nuo listened to Tao Keren's narration, looked at the electronic version of the information handed over by Tao Keren, and his tone was a little incredulous.
Now it is 3670 points, and to 4000 points is infinitely close to 9% of the increase, which may be a matter of one day on individual stocks, and it is very difficult to digest it for the market.
"It should be said that 4000 points is the best position in the industry. Tao Keren explained very simply.
4000 points, for the financial circle, is the place where you can get the greatest benefits, you can all kinds of speculation, all kinds of profits and leave, and you can also have another reincarnation in the follow-up.
Coupled with the current fundamental situation, all parties in the financial circle have the psychological preparation and tacit understanding to push the Shanghai Stock Exchange to 4,000 points.
But it doesn't mean that this is stable, and there are many intermediate variables, such as official opinions, market feedback, and so on.
Once an accident happens, major financial institutions also file their own records, and everyone is not vegetarian, and it is normal for financial institutions to re-analyze the market.
What Wang Nuo learned from Tao Keren's words is...... Mentality.
Ordinary investors enter the securities market as a flag, but Tao Keren's group must have the mentality of chess players, if they cannot influence and manipulate the market, they will fail.
This is a fund company, and this is a fund company with a management scale of more than 300 billion yuan.
However, Wang Nuo always felt weird, maybe his mentality had not been changed, maybe he had his own perception of the market, he just felt that 4000 points was too dangerous.
The stock market of 3999 points and 4000 points is a completely different concept of market psychology, the former is called the 3,000-point era, and the latter is called the 4,000-point era, which is a kind of sublimation at the level.
If the 4,000-point era comes, the concept of a bull market will be hyped up again, and then it may be another time period for the whole people to speculate in stocks, and finally ...... The risk is too great.
Will the official agree? Or can the financial circle facilitate this? Wang Nuo does not know how deep the water is, but if he were asked to vote from the official point of view, he would definitely vote against it.
Are Tao Keren's group overly optimistic? This is where Wang Nuo suspects.
"But I'm certainly not going to use an honest pen to predict where the stock market is going. Wang Nuo silently complained in his heart that as long as he still wants to invest in the stock market to make a profit, he needs to reduce the prediction of determining the price index.
It's just that without investigation, there is no right to speak, and Tao Keren gave Wang Nuo a lot of them just by analyzing the materials.
Before reading these things, of course, Wang Nuo would not rashly put forward his own opinions, if he wanted to read these materials...... It will take about two or three days.
"By the way, even if these materials are electronic, you can't copy them, so if you want to see them, just stay here and watch them. Tao Keren suddenly said such a sentence to Wang Nuo.
As Tao Keren's words landed, the sound of the door opening came from the side of the living room connected to the kitchen, and Tao Xiu walked over with a plate of prepared glutinous rice cakes and a smile.
Wang Nuo immediately understood Tao Keren's calculations, his daughter slave was really a daughter slave, and in order to have more contact with his daughter, Tao Keren really tried his best.
At night, under Tao Xiu's somewhat disgusted and helpless gaze, Wang Nuo "helped the wicked" and successfully persuaded Tao Xiu to stay at home, while he was holding a large pile of paper materials and a tablet computer in the guest room.
Wang Nuo finally found the variables that needed to be cut.
"In July, the central bank will start reverse repo operations. ”
"In July, all the reverse repo funds of the central bank will flow into the bank. ”
Wang Nuo wanted to slowly test the proportions, however, the answer surprised him, and he said a prophecy and left his handwriting.
Reverse repurchase is a thing that means that the central bank has more money in its hands or less money in the market, so he first negotiates with the primary trader, first uses the money to buy the things in the hands of the primary trader, and agrees to sell the things back to the primary dealer at a certain time in the future, that is, to lend the money out of the other way.
There are basically three types of primary dealers in China: commercial banks, securities companies and trust and investment companies.
It seems that all three are financial institutions, but the central bank is very particular about who the money is handed over.
If the money is handed over to securities companies and trust and investment companies, it is likely to flow into the securities market, and if most of the money is handed over to the banks, it is undoubtedly a blood transfusion for the banks to the real enterprises.
The central bank gives reverse repo, how to divide the proportion and where the funds flow is a very, very important thing, which represents the official will.
Wang Nuo originally tried to test the proportion, but now it's good, there is no need to try, all the funds flow to the bank, and the securities company and the trust and investment company have not even caught a single hair.
What does this mean? This means that there are more things, and the market trend in Wang Nuo's eyes suddenly became clear.