Both up and down is a matter of probability for financial markets.

Wang Nuo tends to be bullish because of the positions and operations of the main bulls, they will not allow the price to go down, at least not in the early stage.

It's a question of the intensity of investment, if the bears have the main force, and they find that the bulls are determined to go up, do they choose to snipe with all their might in the 2850 area, or take a few steps back and sell short at the high level?

You must know that for each additional price point, a contract is 10 yuan profit, 50 points is 500 yuan, and 10,000 lots is 5 million yuan.

The imbalance of the positions of the main long and short forces should be an important reason for the price increase.

The main position of the bulls is heavy, but the main position of the bears is not heavy, that is, the main force of the bulls has entered the market, but the main force of the bears still has room to flicker.

It is difficult to say whether it is a bullish advantage or a bearish advantage, but from the price point of view, the will of the bulls will be very strong.

The position is here, the price does not rise, it is better to die.

The position is not there, the price has risen, the high price is shorted, and even the small short position is strangled to make some small money for technical arbitrage.

This is completely two mentalities, but when the market goes to a high level, the main force of the bears will be powerful, and the higher the price, the greater the bearish space, however...... Market psychology has come out to stir up the situation again.

The higher the price, the more frenzied the market is, and it is still possible to continue to rush upward.

The chaotic nature of financial markets is reflected here.

But the premise of all this is that the volume is going to explode, can't the professionals see this? Definitely not.

What market participants are uncertain about is...... Will the bulls choose to step back and open a position?

2,850 yuan per ton is too high, what about 2,800 yuan per ton? or even lower?

Wang Nuo can be sure that it will not happen, the main force of the bulls will retreat, and the main force of the bears will help the main force of the bulls to lower the opening price at a low level? What kind of international joke?

Therefore, where the volume breaks out, it should be a higher position, and the lower level should be a shrinkage.

This inference is also a probabilistic event, however...... With a 65% energy consumption ratio, coupled with realistic information feedback, Wang Nuo almost dared to pile up the probability to infinitely close to 100%.

If nothing else, the operation method can be determined.

"The volume broke out at a high level, but the current sideways position will also have a certain amount of energy, and even ...... There is a certain probability that there will be a little chance of opening a position in lower places, as long as my demand is not large. Wang Nuo thought carefully, picked up the information and flipped through it.

The next day, Friday.

Whenever the weekend approaches, it means that there is a greater chance of market changes, and generally the information change expectations of the next two days of rest will be condensed into the outbreak on Friday.

Wang Nuo has been paying attention to the futures market for a long time, and during this time, he feels that he has gained a lot of things, but ...... It's so tiring.

Fortunately, Wang Nuo's information is almost exhausted, and there will be at most two rounds of market in the next round, or even only one, and you can rest for a while after you are busy.

In the morning, a few minutes of call bidding did not produce any moths, and the price of the main rebar futures contract has been swinging around 2,850 yuan per ton.

The amount can be stable.

Wang Nuo put down the matter of the securities research department, and still came to the futures market during trading hours, hoping that there was a chief analyst of the futures research department by his side, and maybe he could give some advice at some point.

"The last one was sent by a customer, and one was delivered?" Wu Xuan was cutting the cigar with his hand, and now it was his turn to be leisurely, watching Wang Nuo keep an eye on the trading plate, and couldn't help but quip: "The price of raw materials has risen due to changes in the futures market, and the stock market should also be busy." ”

"There are good and bad, Lu Zhu can handle it himself. Wang Nuo replied simply.

The price of black futures has risen, and related stocks have to react, but the stock price is more stable than the futures price, and the short-term change is at most a small change in the price, and the amount can not break out, and it may fluctuate back at any time.

"Chief Zhou ran the roadshow, Ah Liang ran at both ends, you shook your hand, Lu Jianming's luck was good. Wu Xuan pursed his lips, and seemed to be very optimistic about Lu Jianming's appearance.

A research office, the three main cadres are busy, and when the market is stable, they all lose their work to the only assistant analyst, which is both pressure and opportunity, but Wu Xuan is also a local faction of the research institute, and he is still a little overwhelmed by the people who came from the research department of Wanli Securities.

"Can't the people accepted by the Futures Research Department here?" Wang Nuo had also heard some gossip and asked casually: "It is also very normal for people from securities companies to not know much about the futures market. ”

"I'm just annoyed, since I want to be transferred to the futures research department, why don't I go to Wanli Futures? Wu Xuan was really full of complaints: "Do you know what those two guys told me yesterday? Damn, use the data of the securities market to deduce the direction of the futures market, I'll fuck it." ”

Wu Xuan directly burst into foul language, the securities market and the futures market are two different markets, and the research department of Wanli Securities has always only studied the securities market, and the newcomers who were transferred to the futures research department have not even learned the research model well, no wonder the chief analyst feels congested.

"The Futures Research Department is having a hard time right now. Wang Nuo heard the sound outside the strings.

"Yes, if you don't study the business anymore and do public research reports all day long, the Futures Research Department will be abolished. Wu Xuan glanced at Wang Nuo meaningfully, and suddenly said: "Therefore, although this research report is not necessary for business, it is very important to us. ”

Among the Wanli Financial Research Institute, the securities research department is the most important department, so important that it is even necessary to separate the research office, but the futures research department is a bit of a grandma does not love the uncle.

Some time ago, Wu Xuan messed up the research business given by Wanli Futures, and after a rough calculation, he had been dormant for nearly a month, and it was time to find a way out.

Wang Nuo didn't pity Wu Xuan at all, Wanli Securities Research Department came over and allocated some manpower to the Futures Research Department, but the leader pulled some research business from Wanli Futures, which can be regarded as benevolent and righteous, but Wu Xuan himself messed up.

"It's been three days since the spot market price and the futures market price resonated. Wu Xuan couldn't help but sigh when he saw Wang Nuo pretending to be stupid, and said, "I'm a little unconfident." ”

After three days, the futures market was calm, and Wu Xuan had just failed once, and he was really worried.

And this worry is not unreasonable, Wang Nuo's research report was made by Wu Xuan, and the core argument in it is that the trading volume has a tendency to further explode, and now it is ...... It's a bit of a hang.

The timeline only captures the month of October, and now it is the 12th, and the next trading day is 14, and it has been several days since the last market change.

Not to mention the long-short outbreak duel, at least there must be a little bit of long-short hedging to brush up the sense of existence, however...... There is a tendency for the market to return to calm.

In short, Wu Xuan wanted to gain some confidence in Wang Nuo.

"Three possibilities. Up to now, Wang Nuo didn't hide his secrets, raised three fingers, and said, "First, let's go down for a short time......"

As soon as he said the beginning, before Wang Nuo said what he deduced last night, black futures, including rebar futures, began to fluctuate downward.

Wu Xuan almost missed his fingers from the cigar cutter.