Chapter 285: Three Forks

Wang Nuo cut the trading volume of rebar in the whole month from late September to October, it stands to reason that the average daily trading volume of rebar is 300,000 lots, so what is the total trading volume of this 40-day period?

After deducting the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and the National Day holiday, and then deducting Saturdays and Sundays, the remaining trading days are a total of 25 days.

25 times 300,000 lots equals 7.5 million lots.

Suppose there is an ordinary market, plus about one million lots in five days, that is, 11 million lots.

Therefore, to determine whether there is an increase in trading volume that leads to the birth of the market, the first variable that Wang Nuo uses an honest pen to cut is "the trading volume is not less than 10 million lots".

When it was determined that the trading volume was higher than 10 million lots, Wang Nuo was almost sure that there was a bit of a market.

But......

Fifteen million hands remain.

There are still 20 million hands.

Twenty-five million hands are still there.

Then came 30 million, 40 million, 50 million, 60 million......

Until no less than 70 million hands were used, the handwriting of the honest pen was not left.

The trading volume of 60 million to 70 million, 25 trading days, the daily average trading volume of almost 2.4 million to 2.8 million lots, fools know that this is not a trivial matter.

Because the trading volume is likely not evenly distributed, it may first be hundreds of thousands of hands in a few days, and then explode, and then come back hundreds of thousands of lots, and explode again, what does this mean?

Even if it is evenly distributed, two or three million hands a day, it is a good market, and it has been brewing for so long, it is obvious that it is going to heaven.

Extrapolating it again, rebar, just a member of the black futures, has continued to explode, what will be the situation of the entire futures market?

What Wang Nuo is not sure of...... The direction of the price movement.

It may rise first and then fall and then rise, or it may fall first and then rise and then fall, etc., in short, it may be an up and down curve.

Therefore, the beginning can not wander on the verge of liquidation, Wang Nuo left space, fortunately, there was no bottoming, and the curve directly raised upward.

This is the right bet at the beginning, not to mention the analysis and effort that has been experienced, and the most important thing is ...... Subsequent.

Wu Xuan and Ren Likun are also professional, and they have also seen that the market is brewing changes, and they are all bullish and long, just like Wang Nuo.

The only difference is ...... The pinnacle that others think is just the beginning of what Wang Nuo thinks.

"Will the price rise, the profit order flees, and the chips will be concentrated? Then the second hedging? Then the second rise? The third round, the fourth round?" Wang Nuo wants to see most is such a curve.

But it can also happen that the first round of rise, the second round of fall, the third round of rise, and the fourth round of fall are pulled back and forth, but ...... Wang Nuo prefers to think that the overall direction will go up, because the trading volume is too terrifying.

The main force can be all-you-can-eat!

This is a very important point, when the magnitude of capital can be described as huge, it is not the price that is important, because it is the factor that determines the price.

Large funds look at the volume, only when there is enough energy, the main capital can get enough positions, and with enough positions, there are enough interests to drive it to operate and affect the market.

Another point is also very important: fundamentals.

Wu Xuan guessed correctly, Wang Nuo did analyze the big topic of the economy, but he analyzed this big topic on the premise of "the explosion of rebar volume", what he saw was very complex and vague, but no matter what, the space is large enough and the variables are enough to be determined.

What's missing...... It's just a matter of whether the impact is strong enough.

The problem then goes back to it, as long as the volume is sufficient, the impact can be enough.

And then there'...... The financial market pushes back the real economy, finance determines the economy, and the economy determines politics, which is a very simple and crude philosophy, Wang Nuo bets that this feast can benefit multiple capital representative forces.

If you have the opportunity, you can hello me, hello everyone, and naturally have the opportunity to show the magical side of the financial market, or even excessive magic, and finally blow up again.

In short, Wang Nuo's current view of the market outlook is also uncertain, what he is sure of is an argument, not an argument, nor a direction of change, but there is no doubt that he still cleared the fog shrouded in front of him before Wu Xuan and others, and his grasp is greater than anyone else.

After all...... Maybe the main force hasn't gathered funds yet, maybe the main force is not the main force yet, and Wang Nuo can already determine the hedging level.

In fact, seeing the changes in the market, Wu Xuan was directly dumbfounded, and he suddenly felt that he couldn't understand the market.

"How could it be an outbreak now. Wu Xuan felt that his worldview had collapsed.

Okay, let's brew another wave.

Isn't it a bit of a joke to explode now?

What exactly is the information support?

"What kind of price is good for continuing to clear production capacity?"

"There is just the possibility of closing the mine, which can also be regarded as support?"

Seeing the changes in fundamentals, Wu Xuan was immediately even more stunned.

The good support is not large, although there is, but it is not enough for the market to change at this point in time, that is to say, there is more support on the data side?

Everyone is squeezing into the same point in time to exert force?

Variables are crowded, no matter how powerful analysts are, sometimes there are too many small variables in the market, and there will be qualitative changes.

At this time, in fact, what we look at is the grasp of market psychology and the analysis of the general direction of the economy.

No one can be sure, but anyone can try it, and the most chaotic times are the most exciting times.

Wu Xuan immediately turned his gaze to Wang Nuo.

"I'm definitely on the sidelines. Wang Nuo stretched out his hand, indicating that he would not move first.

5,000 contracts are a total of 50,000 tons, and the bullish price is 2,648 yuan, almost up 100 yuan per ton, which is a book profit of 5 million yuan.

But Wang Nuo is also not sure whether the next wave will be up or down, he needs to see more movement, or...... Get more information.

Even so, Wu Xuan also has a kind of admiration for Wang Nuo, he is not a layman, and he can see what the changes in the present represent.

If Wang Nuo's point of view was originally strange, now the probability of becoming a positive theory has begun to increase, if it really becomes a mainstream view...... Wu Xuan said that he dared to kneel down directly and sing conquest.

Yes, as of now, including Wu Xuan, the vast majority of people still feel that this is the peak of the market, maybe there will be some continuation in the future, but there should not be more amplitude.

On the other hand, it is precisely because of this that the chips will have the possibility of concentration, after the chips are concentrated, if the market continues, if the fundamentals can hold up, will the people who have withdrawn re-enter the market......? How many reincarnations?

"That's the fork in the road. Wang Nuo had this idea in his heart, after the Mid-Autumn Festival and before the National Day, it may be the stage of sorting out the chips, and then before the National Day holiday, it must be the second turning point.