Ordinary people know that finance is a whole, but only a very small number of institutions have all the data, such as the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank of China, and the European Central Bank, which have a good understanding of all the economic data in the region, and other institutions...... Except for the World Financial Exchange, which knows the difference between knowing and not knowing, a large local institution like Tyrone has absolutely no way to know all the numbers of the Chinese market.

Therefore, financial investment, in fact, is also a kind of intention analysis of top-level institutions, how investors think the superior will make a move, what role it will play in the market, and this analysis comes from another round of analysis of public data and information.

Yuan Rongxin thinks that the market will change as usual, that is, the stock price and gold prices are in shocks, and after predicting the change space, the conclusion is that the exchange rate does not need to move.

If this change is not linked, but has a sufficient foundation, and this foundation can allow the official to directly move the exchange rate, even Yuan Rongxin will recognize that this is better, but ...... He wasn't sure there was that foundation.

Wang Nuo is not sure, but Wang Nuo is sure that the stock market volatility is very small, and the things deduced from this can be infinite, and from a large number of inferences, his perception of the market is completely different, although ...... It's also a probability, but it's a big probability.

The probability is large enough to promote the investment process, and Wang Nuo's funds can enter the corresponding market, and what he needs to choose is the one he thinks has more returns than risks, such as the foreign exchange market.

The onshore exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is more than 6.7, and the increase in the exchange rate is actually a decrease in this number, and the 387 basis points on Monday the 21st is an adjustment of 0.0387.

This adjustment scared people in the industry a bit.

When they saw this middle price, others didn't say it, Yuan Rongxin and Ye Yaohua were dumbfounded.

"How is that possible!"

"It has already exceeded the appreciation rate of 1%, and the central bank still dares to intervene!"

"It's already more than 1% appreciation, and the central bank still needs to intervene?"

Grateful for the investment, Ye Yaohua and Yuan Rongxin looked at each other, and they both felt confused.

What is the purpose of currency appreciation, capital flowing, rising and flowing again, with the current figures, and then moving the exchange rate?

"Could it be ......" Yuan Rongxin and Ye Yaohua immediately remembered the possibility of weighing: "The domestic market needs more capital flow, can it accommodate the demand for adjustment of the import and export structure, ????"

"The expected decline in systemic risk. Wang Nuo breathed a sigh of relief, and said the emphasized argument again: "Whether it is the change of market data, or the frequency and magnitude of capital flow, all of them show a conclusion...... The risks in the domestic market are not as great as expected. ”

"Goo. Yuan Rongxin and Ye Yaohua swallowed their saliva, their eyes dilated.

Wang Nuo continued: "Throughout last year, the forecasts of international institutions for the Chinese market, and even for the domestic market, were on the high side of risk, with economic imbalances, small political and military turmoil, and currency depreciation actually reflected risks. ”

"Since the fourth quarter, even if there is a black futures market, but it has not been able to touch the bottom line, or dare not touch the bottom line, on the whole, the risk is actually downward. ”

"There is an argument in secondary school textbooks, that is, a healthy economy, the development trend is that inflation should be included, and inflation is a risk. ”

There are a lot of risks piled up in the financial system, what do people in the industry think about risks?

If the risk is too large, the probability of system collapse is greater, and if the risk is too low, the vitality is too low, so the risk must exist, if there is no risk, such as credit, is it necessary to ban it?

Therefore, the assessment of risk has been running through the financial field, and all market figures reflect investors' perception of risk.

Wang Nuo knows that the volatility of the stock market is very small, and in the final analysis, he knows that market participants believe that there is not much risk here.

The end is ...... Officials should release corresponding risks and promote market development.

Finally, in light of the market performance of the previous period, the conclusion is that the appreciation of the renminbi is not enough.

It seems very simple to say, but it is difficult to do, and professionals such as Yuan Rongxin and Ye Yaohua also have a biased understanding of the entire financial system.

"The stock market is red...... Less than 30 o'clock, a narrow range of shocks!" Ye Yaohua immediately turned his eyes to other markets: "The futures market and the bond market fluctuate accordingly......"

"It's so steady. Yuan Rongxin's face was full of astonishment, and when he looked at Wang Nuo again, he didn't know how much excitement surged in his heart.

Financial investment is boring, even if he enters the foreign exchange market, Wang Nuo has been slowly grinding for more than ten or twenty days, and only then has he waited for the cognitive differences in the market to accumulate to the peak, and then ...... Raise.

However, financial investment is also stimulating, and when it is enough to affect the market's institutional statement, the long and short sides will almost live and die.

Hibernation, waiting, erupting, this is the eternal melody.

After the results appear, the correctness of all the analysis conclusions and investment plans in the early stage is completely determined by this moment.

Looking back, Yuan Rongxin found a fact that made him tremble: he will always go half a step faster than the market.

Predict the size of the risk in advance, deduce the direction of the market, get ahead of most investors, and then ...... Take the profits.

Based on the analysis of the stock market, it is extended to deduce the direction and amplitude of shocks in other markets, and then selects the foreign exchange market as the investment location, and finally adjusts the position according to the size of the risk.

In Yuan Rongxin's view, what Wang Nuo did seemed simple, but it was not simple at all, first of all...... He had to firmly believe in that basic argument, and again, in addition to his eyesight, he needed courage, and in the end, in addition to courage, he had to maintain a certain degree of rationality.

Bearable risk = predicted risk = position = rate of return, Wang Nuo firmly fulfilled this formula, so ...... The highest position he took was more than 5,000 lots.

But that's enough, that's good enough.

"It's up! Fuck, the market really hasn't made any waves at all!" Ye Yaohua stared at the plate next to him, scolding in his mouth, and his heart was also shocked and happy.

Today's central parity of the onshore exchange rate was adjusted, and the offshore exchange rate did not appear when other markets were stable and volatile, and the market really had a new and common understanding of the risk, and even let the offshore exchange rate rise by more than 400 basis points, and the mainstream view immediately gave a forecast of 6.7500.

Wang Nuo adhered to his perception of the market, and the market finally lived up to him even half a time, more than 400 basis points, put in the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar, which can be regarded as a big rise.