"What do you mean?" said Tao Keren's face was full of surprise.

"It's going up, and then it's going back?" Chu Muwei didn't know why.

"What the hell?" Wei Qiang remembered Wang Nuo's research report on private hospitals.

Optimistic about reverse repo, optimistic about the market outlook for gains, but feel that it will fall back, this is a more accurate analysis conclusion.

The research report of the stock market generally directly says that it is bullish or bearish for a certain period of time, and then gives operational suggestions according to the changes in the indicators of price and volume in time and space.

A statement like Wang Nuo is very rare in the industry, because ...... There are too many variables.

If you are bullish, you can directly hold the core information, for example, the reverse repo comes out, the market has capital injection, so it will rise, but you say that it will rise and fall back, which is equivalent to saying that it is good first and then bearish, which is not only double the difficulty.

"Even if Huapu Research Department changes the direction of the report, it will not let its funds change their trading plans. ”

"After Tao Keren adopts my point of view, it will not cause energy consumption. ”

Before Wang Nuo answered the doubts of Tao Keren and others, he quietly looked at the handwriting left on the paper by the honest pen, and couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief.

The research department and the fund team are not in a unified relationship, and after the research department in charge of Tao Keren publishes the research report, the fund management team of Huapu Fund only uses it for reference, and they may not necessarily adopt the investment advice of the research department.

So there is actually room for operation here, how to report the research department is one thing, the fund management team believes it or not is another thing, the former only depends on whether the analysis conclusion is correct, the latter only depends on whether the profit exists, and the two sides may be in conflict.

Of course, Wang Nuo has no hope of helping Huapu Fund improve its performance, after the "portable psychiatrist" has determined these things, of course he doesn't mind that his views are accepted by Tao Keren, he can completely let go, and refine the analysis conclusions through communication with Tao Keren, Chu Muwei, and Wei Qiang.

"What is the probability of reverse repurchase?" asked Wang Nuo to Chu Muwei.

"It's very high, and it's almost certain that money will be released. Chu Muwei replied with a deep groan.

"I don't feel like financial institutions are short of money. Wang Nuo said another point.

"You mean?" Wei Qiang faintly grasped Wang Nuo's thoughts.

"If I'm not mistaken, the money released from the reverse repo needs to be tendered through the interest rate, that is, the reverse repo is determined first, and then the direction and interest rate of the reverse repo funds are determined. Wang Nuo asked.

"With the current economic situation, it should be. Chu Muwei also saw Wang Nuo's thoughts, but he still couldn't believe it.

This is an exaggeration, this is not a variable, this is already the analysis process and conclusion of two, three, or even several variables.

"I think the market will go like this," Wang Nuo said his opinion, "before the reverse repurchase came out, there was a high probability of rising, and when the reverse repurchase came out, it rose, but the increase was excessive, and the reverse repurchase funds were released in the direction ......of bypassing securities companies and trust and investment companies, and fell." ”

……

Quiet.

The three people in Huapu Fund were all frightened by Wang Nuo's views, not because they were incisive and accurate, but because there were too many variables.

First of all, you have to make sure that the reverse repo will appear, secondly, you have to make sure that the market trend before and after the reverse repo appears as scheduled, and finally you have to make sure that the government will suppress the will of financial institutions, three or four major variables, all of which are indispensable.

Calculate that the probability of each link is 70%, and the probability of all three links being connected is...... 34.3%。

This is a bit excessive, obviously everyone has a high probability, you have to go off the beaten path, what are you making trouble?

But the financial market is very strange, 70% probability of things, maybe only less than 30% of the profit, if it is a 30% probability event, you bet, you will definitely earn more than 70% of the profit.

The risk is directly proportional to the benefit.

"There is a high probability of reverse repos, and I agree with the argument of the first stage. Chu Muwei frowned and began to tell: "The stock market will rise after the reverse repo, I am skeptical, with the current situation, the securities market before the reverse repo is determined will already get enough gains." ”

"Even if the arguments of the second stage are analyzed by you, securities companies and trust and investment companies will not lag behind banks in terms of bid interest rates, and as long as the funds are released, it is impossible to bypass us. ”

"The argument of the third stage does not have the premise of being realized, even if all three stages are guessed by you, the market will not necessarily fall as you say, we are ......"

"Financial institutions!"

Chu Muwei summed up loudly: "No matter where the funds are released, as long as the money comes out, it means that there is room for operation, it means that there is hope for a rise, and the high level of 4,000 points is ...... It is the tacit understanding of the entire financial circle. ”

"Unless 4,000 points are broken before the reverse repo funds come out, otherwise, the financial circle will not necessarily admit defeat. Wei Qiang also echoed and said.

There are many variables, and the problem is that Wang Nuo has other definite quantities in his hands.

"In China's securities market, the largest market maker is state-owned capital. Wang Nuo shook his head, he couldn't say that the reverse repurchase funds would all bypass the securities company and the trust and investment company, because it was too.

In fact, this is the case, and this status quo represents the extreme dissatisfaction of the official with the securities market, and it means that there must be a deflection...... The probability is high.

There is a high probability of making a large profit, and a fool will not insist.

Tao Keren listened to it with relish, he didn't mind Wang Nuo's opinions, and even hoped that Wang Nuo would be "presumptuous", after all, everyone is engaged in the financial industry, and financial practitioners who can only make promises will never succeed.

"Eat and eat. Tao Keren beckoned everyone to eat first, he knew very well that no one could convince anyone in financial analysis, and in the end he could only use the results to speak.

Wang Nuo also knows this, and it is enough for him to express his views, as long as the market confirms his arguments, this round can be regarded as a lesson for the analysts of Huapu Fund Research Department.

As for whether others believe it or not...... Wang Nuo still said the same thing, believe it or not.

Chu Muwei and Wei Qiang didn't take this matter to heart, at most they felt that they had heard a fresh point of view, and deep down in their hearts there was a sense of pride in educating the children.

But whether it was right or wrong, Wang Nuo dared to express his opinion, and he was still recognized by Chu Muwei and Wei Qiang.

"There is courage, strength...... It's not good to evaluate, anyway, his point of view is left to Mr. Tao to measure, and we can do our own things well. Chu Muwei and Wei Qiang exchanged a look, and they thought of it in their hearts.