China's financial market has always had a holiday effect, taking the stock market as an example, more than 80% of the market has risen before and after the National Day in the past ten years.

The futures market is a little different, but the stock market has risen, which is generally good for the futures market, and it is natural that the economy is better and the stock price has risen, and the corresponding commodity prices are optimistic.

The variable lies in the fact that before the big market, what effect has to stand aside, and the so-called rise probability is large, and it may also become an opportunity for bears to eat chips.

But......

You can make money if you fall, and if you don't like it to rise, then you can sell it short.

Therefore, it is a rational investment strategy to take as many positions as you can grasp the direction of market changes.

Wang Nuo is now measuring his grasp of the direction of market changes.

There is no doubt that the bullish bias is a certain thing, and there will be a certain probability of an explosion of volume when the futures price falls, but as long as the ceiling is touched, the bulls will have a natural advantage.

Just like rebar, one hand is ten tons, 10 million hands is 100 million tons, 50 or 60 million hands is 560 million tons, China's crude steel output last year was less than 1 billion tons, and rebar was about 200 million tons.

In 18 trading days, it was revealed that the domestic output of this product was more than twice the trading volume, and the total position must increase.

This is the reason why after the trading volume came out, the honest pen pushed the energy consumption ratio to six or seventy percent.

The data is too large to be determined to affect the direction of price movements.

But it is not a 10% rise probability, Wang Nuo knew some positions from Ren Likun, and the funds that held bullish positions in the early stage almost reduced a large number of positions, which means that the magnitude of wait-and-see funds is very huge.

In this case, it is also possible that the bears will crush the bulls, and now the main contract is the contract that expires in January next year, during which the longs will be squeezed, and the bears will be finished.

Plenty of time and money make the market full of uncertainties.

Wang Nuo has 16 million yuan in his account and holds 5,000 hands, which is actually very suitable, he can sit and wait for the long and short to hedge again, relying on the foresight of the volume and working hard to increase his winning rate, but ......

After returning home once, Wang Nuo's mentality changed.

Why wait? How can there be a 100% win rate in the financial markets? What do you want? What are you afraid of losing?

"Money is just a prop, and if you're afraid of losing it to the point of not taking risks, you're putting the cart before the horse. Sitting on the chair, Wang Nuo was undergoing another transformation, the negative symptoms of the poor getting rich were slowly being peeled off, and his eyes finally had a look that he hadn't seen for a long time: "I don't just want money! Mine is not just money! Money is just a form of expression!"

……

Wanli Futures Company, Luo Yingyang was also staring at the market, and suddenly, the assistant brought him a piece of news that made him almost fall on the office floor.

"What are you talking about!" Luo Yingyang seemed to hear that aliens had invaded the earth, and there was an inexplicable emotion floating in his heart.

"That account added 6,000 lots. The assistant's voice also seemed to tremble, and said: "Five minutes, 6,000 hands, the price fluctuation just now was caused by him." ”

"......" Luo Yingyang subconsciously waved his hand to let the assistant leave the office, and an inexplicable emotion surged up.

The assistant only knew the one-sided news, such as adding 6,000 hands, but Luo Yingyang knew that after Wang Nuo settled yesterday, the funds in the account were more than 16 million yuan, holding 5,000 calls contracts, and adding 6,000 hands, which means ...... Full warehouse.

At least on the edge of a full position, according to the minimum margin ratio of 5%, Wang Nuo can hold more than 11,500 hands at most, he now holds 11,000 hands, and the remaining hundreds of hands...... Is it to give room for fluctuations?

It's too small!

That's a full warehouse.

Full long before a long holiday?

Luo Yingyang, as the general manager of the financial management department of a futures company, has seen this situation many times, but almost all novices come in with hundreds of thousands of dollars to wave a wave, and the amount of funds reaches tens of millions of full positions, which is really rare.

Merely...... The charm of the futures market lies in the full position, wandering on the edge of life and death, reverse fluctuations are dead, positive fluctuations are life, this is the most passionate moment, this is an investor's most resolute embodiment of the outlook on the market.

Be optimistic about the market outlook, leave no room for death!

"Awesome. After holding it for a long time, Luo Yingyang finally only held back such a word, and forcibly suppressed the inexplicable emotions in his heart, and he silently drew an extra stroke on the edge of the forced liquidation.

The margin ratio of rebar is 5%, and the limit on the rise and fall is also 5%, the contracts signed by futures companies and customers are different, but generally the loss on the same day is not concerned, after the settlement, it is found that the margin is insufficient, and the next day there is no money to make up, if there are no special terms, the futures company will help the customer to force the liquidation, that is, to liquidate.

If 100,000 bullish contracts are closed at the same time, then there will be 100,000 short contracts on the market, and they are contracts traded at market prices, which forms a tragic stampede.

Therefore, Wang Nuo's position, for Luo Yingyang and other futures speculators, is equivalent to knowing the short contract of 11,000 market prices that may be traded at a certain price and at a certain point in time.

Of course...... It is also equivalent to knowing that investors in a certain market are unreservedly optimistic about the market outlook.

"The long holiday is a fundamental showdown, I just don't know if the bears have the idea of raising the price of short selling, if there is, my position will be very safe, if not......" After Wang Nuo made a decision, he felt much more relaxed, and his thinking seemed to be clearer: "That's not bad, it's equivalent to leaving space for the next trading day." ”

"There's still a chance. Confirming this, Wang Nuo suddenly became interested.

Next will be 9 consecutive days of non-trading days, during this period, Wang Nuo can determine that the long and short will start a duel on the information side, all kinds of bricks and beasts will jump out, but there is still a little time before the close, will the bears be empty?

After the holiday, the probability of rising is greater than the probability of falling, which is reflected in the price, that is, the probability of the end of the market is larger, if so, Wang Nuo's 11,000 hands can be much safer.

"Arnold. Wu Xuan finally rushed over, first nodded and said hello to a few colleagues in the Securities Market Equity Research Office, and then quickly talked to Wang Nuo with a smile under everyone's gaze: "You didn't bring your mobile phone......

Before he finished speaking, Wu Xuan saw that Wang Nuo's mobile phone on the desk was vibrating wildly, and the mobile phone with the ringtone prompt turned off was buzzing, and the name displayed on the screen was "Ren Likun".

"Some people, no matter how much advice you give them, they won't listen at some point in time. Looking at the mobile phone that was still vibrating, and remembering the speculation he had just made with an honest pen, Wang Nuo said with a smile: "For example, Mr. Ren, even if I emphasize again that I am optimistic about the market outlook, he still won't believe it, since that's the case...... Don't waste any time. ”

In fact, Wang Nuo didn't want Ren Likun because he was different from Wu Xuan, he and Ren Likun each took what they needed, and under this premise, he could be very willful.

Anyway, Ren Likun will not change his trading plan because of his own opinion, so ...... It's okay if you don't answer some calls, and what is too easy to get will become worthless, and the style of an analyst still needs to be maintained.

Wu Xuan smiled bitterly, Wang Nuo is not a full-time futures market analyst, he is, but the chief analyst of the dignified futures research department is used as a microphone by the buyer, and he really feels sad.

"You ......" quickly put aside those meaningless emotions, and as soon as Wu Xuan opened his mouth, he heard the narration that made his knees weak.

"I've broken 10,000 hands. Wang Nuo said.