"God, a billion? David, today is not April Fool's Day. When Green told the team about the matter, he was greeted with stunned faces and doubts.

Speaking of which, when the Green Corner was at its most glorious, the team members donated one billion yuan, which was definitely nerve-wracking, and they were very sensitive to data, so they knew what one billion represented.

With China's out-of-school rate, 1 billion is enough to pay school fees for out-of-school children across the country, which is a country with a population of 1.4 billion.

"The premise is that we help Wang get his investment. Green snapped his fingers and said excitedly, "And, Joe, do you remember Wang's report?"

"I remember. Jonas's expression moved slightly, but the emotional fluctuations were stronger than the state he showed, and he pursed his lips and said, "It's difficult for him to catch that range." ”

"What if his analysis of the Australian dollar is correct?" Green asked in reverse.

"What do you mean...... The amplitude is within 1%, and it should be out of this trajectory next week, the depreciation of the yen is close to 5%, if this figure is digested by the market, the dollar will rise, and the corresponding Australian dollar will depreciate, the Australian dollar will rise against the yen, and the euro will bottom out against the downside......" Jonas had all kinds of data floating in his mind, and finally said: "His direction may be correct, but there is a small flaw in the analysis of the numbers." ”

But he shorted the yen earlier, proving that he thinks this black candlestick is likely to appear. O'Reno, who was in charge of the transaction, said: "Extrapolating, he knows these things, and then he doesn't want to change the numbers in the research report, so his investment may only be halfway." ”

"The conclusion is that he is half right, I don't agree with the appreciation of the yen, but I agree with the widening and increasing frequency of the arbitrage range. Jonas said.

Quite simply, the yen has entered a volatile range, and the market has not yet returned to a completely rational space, and there is a tendency to believe that negative interest rates will bring a corresponding depreciation of the yen.

When the market fully recognizes this thing, various arbitrage operations will make various currencies fluctuate at the same time, and finally enter a relatively balanced state, that is, the spot exchange rate risk is equal to the arbitrage range, and the risk and return are equal.

Then the exposure of the data will close to a certain extent, that is, stabilize, unless ...... There are variables again.

The arbitrage model pointed out by Wang Nuo has actually shown clues, the US-Japan interest rate differential has opened the number, and there are dozens of bps in the US-Japan basis swap, which is not a small amount, and there is a trend of close to 1.5%, that is, it can make a net profit of 1.5%.

But this operation is a real transaction, is to take real money to enter the operation, there is a cost, under the premise of the yen bearish, the 1.5% of the income is the yen, hedging the risk, lock in the income, you need to carry out another operation, take the yen for the dollar, choose to lock in the dollar denominated income.

Generally, you buy yen government bonds first, and then use the yen government bonds that mature later to set out the dollars at that time, which is a buy and a sell.

The yield on Japanese yen government bonds is now ...... A negative number, that is, the arbitrage figure will be less than 1.5%, and it may be about 1.2% or 1.3% for a three-month period, that is, it can earn about 5% in four quarters, and the annual yield is 5%, dollars.

This is undoubtedly higher than the US dollar interest rate, which is worth operating, but it is a pity that you need to bear the risk of dollar depreciation...... People don't dare to bet on Japanese festivals.

What is the operation of the Japanese authorities? The yen's active depreciation in the past few years is specifically the issuance of government bonds by Japan, the purchase by the Bank of Japan of banknotes, and the use of these currencies by the Japanese authorities to "stimulate the economy," and the increase in the number of yen in the market, which will of course depreciate.

Now that the yen even dares to engage in negative interest rates, if the above-mentioned arbitrage is carried out, firstly, it is very likely that the exposure will become smaller and the arbitrage range will be compressed, and secondly, the right to issue currency, that is, the initiative, will be on the Japanese side, and they can "inject water" into the market at any time.

Stabilized, injected water, stabilized, and injected again, and then if the yen wants to depreciate, no one can pull it, and another one will appear, if...... If Japan dares to inject water, and other institutions dare to hold the yen, what will be the situation of Japan?

A large amount of yen assets have been taken into the hands of international financial institutions, which is equivalent to hedging international financial institutions, and conversely, it is equivalent to strangling the yen.

OK, I'll keep taking the yen, you will fill the water again, I will buy it again, you will continue to inject water...... If I depreciate too much at one time, the entire yen system will face the risk of collapse.

So in the final analysis, this is a financial war that gambles on life and tacit understanding.

It's just that the central bank of China is an institution, it is impossible to be ready to die with Japan, if it is an international financial institution that tacitly holds positions, the problem will be thrown to Japan, whether to take up a gamble, use their own lives in the future to gamble on the willingness of everyone to lose money, or pinch their noses and be hanged and beaten.

Whether the yen's active depreciation has become angry is actually a factor worth analyzing.

Jonas thinks not, and even he thinks that the expectation of a weaker yen will cause other currencies to depreciate competitively, which is one of the factors that makes him bearish on the Australian dollar.

The Green Corner team also tends to think that things are not such a coincidence, and they actually feel that when it comes to competitive devaluation, the Australian dollar, which has a huge increase in the early stage, can have a huge space, so the market is coming, and the Australian dollar depreciates the fastest.

Wang Nuo's point of view is that he tends to believe that competitive depreciation will not come for the time being, and the yen will be cleaned up first, and he even has an idea: what if the yen government bonds are directly hedged into dollar returns after buying them?

From a procedural point of view, a special chain has been formed in which the dollar is exchanged for yen, the yen buys government bonds, the authorities use money to stimulate the economy, the owners of yen assets exchange their assets for the yen used by the authorities to "stimulate the economy", and the asset owners exchange the yen exchanged for dollars.

In the end, are the Japanese authorities ready to buy all of Japan......? The proportion of government bonds held by foreign institutions is rising, isn't that still a dead word?

Taking a step back, while frantically using interest rate differentials and basis spreads to exchange dollars for yen, the yen exchange rate will be pushed up, and the yen assets held will also appreciate in disguise, which is also a way.

Either way, as long as the situation allows, after the negative interest rate of the yen mobilizes liquidity and opens up the arbitrage space, the possibility spreads throughout the system, Wang Nuo from the Australian dollar amplitude is not higher than 1% and the conclusion of the trend depreciation, and then know the yen depreciation of 5% in three days, negative interest rates and other signals, and finally tends to think: the yen will appreciate.

At least a part of the recovery, or even ...... It is possible that negative interest rates will be followed by a relative appreciation, and Japan will feel very uncomfortable at that time.

"I'm going to go long, help me choose a suitable entry point, I'm going to go long. After meeting with Green Corner, Wang Nuo said this in front of everyone, and directly set the tone.