Chapter 441: Hold up the bold and starve to death the faint-hearted
People who speculate in stocks have heard of the national team, and in short, this team is the team of state-owned capital, such as the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Huijin and the like.
How strong is the national team? The shareholders of the Universe Bank of China are all the national team, to be precise, the shareholders of the powerful blue chips, almost all of them are the national team.
My big China is so powerful, what kind of bookmaker or something, the national team is not a bookmaker, and the national team is all scattered as soon as it comes out, to some extent...... People in the industry have jokingly calculated an account.
Just counting the universe, taking the market value of 2.5 trillion yuan, and counting the national team holding 97% of the shares, that is, 242.5 billion, divided by 1.4 billion people, just here in ICBC, every Chinese citizen has 1,732 yuan in the stock market, not awesome!
Counting the negotiable securities held by the national team, the answer given by people in the financial circle is: ICBC is more than 1,000, two barrels of oil are a few thousand, other miscellaneous goods are a few thousand, and the bonds and fixed assets of the foreign exchange and savings are divided into one cent, and the Chinese account is very valuable.
Jokes are jokes, but it can be seen how big the magnitude of red capital is, and if you look back at the economic model, everyone can see who the "bookmaker" of the domestic financial market is.
Wang Nuo likes this bookmaker, to be precise, don't look at the domestic financial elite has been spraying the system, but that's just for better, everyone has a complex attitude towards the country's system and red capital, and there is an attitude called ...... Revere!
The Asian financial crisis, the global financial tsunami and other events to pick out a few, the system and capital blocked the impact, the central bank of China was also called the central mother at that time, but with the upgrading of the volume, some changes are underway, such as marketization.
Making the market more "market" is an inevitable experience at a certain stage of development.
The information given to Wang Nuo by Shanghai University of Finance and Economics reveals the changing trend of the capital side, and the national team has the meaning of selling chips and making the market more "market", which is a new variable, but this variable will not be announced in an instant, but will not be determined by the financial circle until the situation develops to a certain stage.
"Because we take the initiative to promote marketization, we have to allocate some chips to go out? Or do you feel that the market has reached a high level as before? Do you take the initiative to adjust in a timely manner?" Wang Nuo's mind was full of all kinds of question marks.
Now that I have more information in my hands than ordinary people, and I know the outcome of the trend of the data surface, I should start to pick the arguments and derivation process.
Wang Nuo's choice is...... Try your own answers first, and then use honest answers to prove them.
Under Lu Jianming's gaze, Wang Nuo fell into a long period of thought.
"Is there enough money?"
"If money flows in the red direction, how will the market react?"
"What is the impact on the exchange rate, and what will be the reaction to the exchange rate after it is affected?"
"Where is the inevitability, is it important, is it necessary, or is it important?"
"I think...... State-owned capital can reduce its position!"
"You can reduce your position, you have the support surface to reduce your position, and the funds even have a place to go, and the economic model can withstand this change, so ...... Do you want to take the initiative to change it again?"
The financial market affects the whole body, and there are so many funds, and if you maintain the existing leverage, or even remove some leverage, the flow of funds is actually traceable.
State-owned capital reduces a small part of the chips, promotes the progress of marketization, and what you get is money, so how to spend the money? It is impossible to just put it in your hands, is there such a thing as an interest rate cut, reverse repurchase, etc., that is to say, after the rise is stopped, there will be a wave of capital release? And then what?
Then it must be the increase in risks and the increase in the speed of economic development, and now when Wang Nuo empathizes, he is no longer just switching to institutions or retail investors who are also investors, but occasionally considering the overall situation.
So, in addition to this conclusion, the next market seems to have an outline.
"The national team reduced its holdings in the stock market in March. Wang Nuo was extremely sure of his thoughts.
If it weren't for the honest pen, Wang Nuo would hold this view, and now ...... Let's see if it's right.
"It's really a position reduction!" The handwriting was left, and Wang Nuo felt that his scalp was a little numb.
From the adjustment of production capacity structure, to the promotion of marketization, to the reduction of red capital, a series of things are not well understood by people outside the financial circle, but only people in the circle know, which reflects the firm will of the national level.
Strong enough to resist such a high risk, strong enough to take the initiative to initiate change, that is, to integrate with the international market at its own pace and way, and then ...... See how hard you can go on the offensive.
This is really an era, a financial era that has quietly begun.
In the office, Lu Jianming watched Wang Nuo fall into thought, and watched Wang Nuo start to write and draw, he was sitting on the back of his face, waiting for the soul core of the research team to make a decision.
Which way is the report going? What data are needed, what arguments are used, and which point of view is obtained?
In two days, it was impossible for Wang Nuo to involve the assistant analyst too much in the discussion, and the market was actually full of a large amount of data and research reports.
"Shocks, there is no upside, the strategic side will be digested by the data side, and there are ......" Wang Nuo's words were intermittent, but he was sure that Lu Jianming could understand it, and made a research report: "The national team will reduce its position, and it will definitely reduce its position." ”
Looking at the handwriting that "research reports will not lead to additional energy consumption" remained, Wang Nuo was very sure that he was full of firepower.
When Lu Jianming listened to the first half of the sentence, he felt that this wave was as steady as a dog, and after hearing the second half of the sentence, his mouth slowly opened and widened, so big that there was some pain in his cheeks.
The first half of the sentence is an argument, using this argument to make a research report, Lu Jianming can know some of Wang Nuo's attitudes and views on data and fundamentals, and when he thought it was safe to make inferences, Wang Nuo came to stuff private goods.
For example, Lu Jianming doesn't need to think about the arguments put forward by Wang Nuo, and the next step should be to start talking with Wang Nuo about resistance levels, data pressure, and so on.
It's absolutely fine to deduce your argument in a normal way, and even if it is wrong, it will be a small mistake.
In the second half of the sentence, Wang Nuo identified the core argument, which can also be said to be an argument, because he felt that data and information would lead to this thing, and at the same time, what kind of influence would this matter exert on the market, and which way the market would go, so the overall report came out.
As soon as the report comes out, Wang Nuo will write a draft based on the report, and finally release it, and then ...... Just wait for the market to prove its inferences.
However...... Wang Nuo has drawn two core arguments, the first ring is wrong, and the second ring is useless even if it is right.
Risks are highly concentrated.
"Good...... Target. Lu Jianming gritted his teeth and nodded firmly.
Hold up the bold and starve the faint-hearted.