Now all parts of the country are studying the elimination of backward production capacity, but the implementation is different, of course, the consequences are different.

"I haven't seen you two elders for a while, we can only know more about the situation in Tangshan, and then pay more attention to national policies, some things are still easy to ignore, I don't know what you think of the situation in the past month?" asked Chen Shu.

"It's late June now, so don't expect this price to come down, it's impossible. Everyone knows that the price of iron ore in our country is controlled by the three major mines, and the typical price monopoly is higher than that of the European market for a long time. It is precisely because of this that the negotiation of the long-term agreement mine is no longer negotiated by the state, so as to prevent them from breaking the steel mills. ”

"At the same time, the contracts signed by various steel mills privately with them are invalid, which to a certain extent gives us a certain degree of dominance. Now it is Baosteel on behalf of the country to negotiate, although the final result has not come out, but it is bound to be better than the past year. ”

"With the current pace of negotiations, it is difficult to reach an agreement by the end of June, despite the claims that a result will be inevitable by the end of this month. Now none of the three major mines wants to break the long-term mine mechanism, after all, they make more profits through this, and it is an indisputable fact that the price of the long-term mine is close to the spot, so their bargaining chips are also decreasing. ”

"Everyone is waiting for the results at the end of June, and our gang has long known that there will be no results, so the price of domestic steel will inevitably continue to rise because of the results. Of course, even if it can't be negotiated, the price of spot ore will not be much worse, not to mention that they have been increasing production capacity. ”

"If you can't eat the meat in your mouth, you will eventually move forward, it depends on whether anyone is greedy to be the first to break their current alliance, and for our country, it is still developing in a good direction on the whole. Zhou Zhengrong said with great certainty.

The words he said deeply touched Chen Shu and Liu Chunyu, as well as Liu Huaguang on the side, but they didn't expect that they had already seen the results.

"What if we can't talk about it?" asked Chen Shu.

"Keep talking, what else can I do. To put it bluntly, it's the same as our daily business, but this business is relatively large, and it can affect a country's industry. At present, the three major mines are still increasing their production capacity, and our domestic steel production capacity has been included in the national development plan. ”

"As you can see, now is the policy of resolutely cutting down the blast furnaces below 300 m³, which is not negotiable, and then it may be 400 m³ or 500 m³, which is a gradual process. The final result must be to control the domestic production capacity to a reasonable level, and the days of imported mines will naturally not be as arrogant as they are now. Gu Fanghua said.

"How is your factory being built, and what size?" Zhou Zhengrong asked.

"Of the three 1080 furnaces, two were completed and put into operation at the end of the year, and the other is estimated to be after June. At that time, there was not enough money, and the investment in these two furnaces was large enough, so the third furnace was built with a loan. The investment in three furnaces is too large, and we are really difficult. Chen Shu said.

"You have a lot of appetite! Three 1080 furnaces, that's an annual production capacity of more than 3 million tons, and the pressure is not small! According to my speculation, you still have three to four years of good life at most, and I really don't dare to say what will happen in the future. Zhou Zhengrong said.

"Mr. Liu and I also agree with your old point of view, which was also mentioned when several of us communicated, and the results of the analysis are almost the same as what you always said. Chen Shu said.

"Tell me how you analyze it, maybe it will be useful to us. Zhou Zhengrong immediately became interested.

"One is the release of production capacity, starting from last year's national policy to eliminate backward poor energy, all parts of the country began to large-scale blast furnaces, eliminating small furnaces below 300; ”

"Then there are people like me, there is a complete industrial chain downstream, and if you don't want to grasp the lifeline in the hands of others, then you can only go to the blast furnace yourself, and you don't want to be eliminated in the future, so you just come to a large-scale. In addition, in order to generate income, the local government secretly supports the investment of steel mills. ”

"The points I mentioned are still going on like crazy, and this time cycle is two to three years, so we speculate that after three years, there will be a lot of overcapacity. At that time, I am afraid that it will be the large-scale consumption of ore in China, which will lead to a sharp rise in the price of ore powder, and there will be a serious surplus of finished steel, so it can only be sold at a loss. ”

"At that time, this problem was taken into account, so the process of building the factory was accelerated, just looking forward to being able to complete it one day earlier, so as to create benefits one day earlier and prepare for the difficult days ahead. Chen Shu said.

"Is it serious to be involved in the local area?" Zhou Zhengrong immediately asked, maybe after saying so much, this is what he pays the most attention to.

"Our company has obtained the approval of the province for special reasons, but it is not the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission, which is much stronger than those who do not have any instructions, right? After speaking, Chen Shu smiled mysteriously.

After he said this, Zhou Zhengrong and Gu Fanghua both fell into thinking, and they were more concerned about how much of the place was in it. In fact, this principle is also very simple, if the local government does not support it, how can such a large steel mill get the land for construction, and it is impossible to hide people's eyes.

"I remember you said that if you go to the steel mill in the future, you will definitely study special steel, so the possibility of approval will be greater, and you won't really use this as a reason for applying, right?" The two looked at Chen Shu curiously.

"You're really right, my factory has not yet been built, but the R&D department that has been established has already been established, and now the structural steel varieties have come out. You have seen the steel sheet pile production line here, now Q235B and Q345B are done, and special structural steel varieties are prepared for the H-beam under construction. Chen Shu said seriously.

"Young people should have the vigor and courage of young people, we two old guys can't toss with you. After this investigation, the two of us should retire with honor, and the career of this research institute has come to an end, and there are more than sixty people, and there is no way to toss anymore. Gu Fanghua said.

Hearing this, Liu Chunyu immediately reacted, "Have you two elders thought about what to do after you retire? Do you really plan to ignore anything? Have you ever thought about coming out to earn some money for the elderly, of course, you are not short of money." ”

"Even if we retire, we are also constrained, after all, we know a lot of data related to the country's economic security, if it is really in the past three or five years, those data will be meaningless. If you're just retired, forget it. Gu Fanghua said.

If the two of them don't say it, they really can't think about this problem, and since they say it, they will naturally solve it. Of course, you can't do anything that violates the rules, but now that you have entered the information age, many people are constantly receiving information from all sides, and steel and economic analysis are even more popular, so you definitely don't have to worry about this.

(End of chapter)