Chapter 39: You can lose if you monopolize it

Feng Jianxiong's understanding of the essence of China's stock market is naturally deeper than anyone else in this era.

Because in 2008, no one on the earth has personally seen the capital game frenzy of "Hong Kong stocks delisted and relisted in the mainland".

In the current world economic environment, anyone who can go to a foreign country, such as NASDAQ, or not talk about foreign countries, but only go to the Xiangjiang region and the Hang Seng Index to be listed, will not consider returning to China after delisting.

After all, as long as everyone can be listed, they all feel that listing outside is higher, which is conducive to the company's social image and industry credit.

But ten years later, with the success of China's economy ranking second in the world and steadily approaching the United States every year, China's economic status on the earth is no longer comparable to that of 08 years.

Since about 2013, there have been many cases of large-cap stocks being delisted overseas or in Hong Kong, and then returning to China to re-list.

For example, Wang Xlin, the boss of Wanda in 2014, and Xu Xyin, the boss of Hengda in 2017, were originally invisible riches in the real estate industry - or more appropriately, the kind of people who are rich, but their real strength is definitely not qualified to be the richest man in a country.

However, how did they suddenly come up with a gimmick of being the richest man overnight?

In fact, to put it bluntly, it is very simple, that is, to withdraw the company that was originally listed on the Hong Kong stock market, and then return to China to list A-shares.

Once delisted and returned to China, the total share value of their companies increased by 2.5 times. The nominal property of Boss Wang and Boss Xu multiplied by 2.5 times overnight, and they became addicted to being the richest man.

Of course, this kind of real estate stock company, because it is not an industry advocated by the state, it is not so easy to return to China and go public. Otherwise, everyone knows that this capital game is fun, and everyone will follow up a long time ago.

Wang's return depends on some changes.

Xu's return, although it is not necessarily a treasure that has pressed the position, but after all, the protection fee is well paid-

A year before Hengda's return, the battle between Baoneng's "insurance fund barbarians" and Vanke's equity was in full swing, and the social impact was very bad. AT THE CRITICAL MOMENT, EVERGRANDE SOLD THE SHARES OF VANKE "WAIT" AT A TOTAL PRICE OF 7 BILLION YUAN TO SHENZHEN METRO, WHICH HAS A STATE-OWNED BACKGROUND.

Of course, the 7 billion is not a loss in vain. Not long after, Hengda received a signal that "the money for the return license to buy the road has been paid".

Although the capital principles behind these examples are inextricably different, they can also illustrate an eternal truth - that is, the valuation of the same company (most industries) in China or outside China is at least several times worse, and in real estate asset-heavy industries, it is generally 2.5 times.

Tong Su is not bullied.

Therefore, in fact, even when China's stock market was at its bearest, it was still a big bubble - Graham and Buffett's protégés, who believe in the theory of value investment, think that stocks that are only worth 40 yuan start at least 100 yuan in the mainland, how can this value investment be carried out?

Isn't this the same as "after the leash on which the dog is leashed from 2 to 10 meters, the dog always hovers within 5 to 10 meters in front of the person, and never wants to walk slower than the person"?

The core of the theory of "value investing" is to find those dogs that walk slower than people in the fog, and then press these dogs into them. How else to play?

A person who wants to order a small cup of coffee, walks into Starbucks, only to be told that there are only "medium, large and extra-large cups", what do you buy?

……

The examples of Wanda and Hengda have not happened yet, and Feng Jianxiong certainly can't cite them.

But examples, as long as you have a heart and a theoretical guide, you can find them everywhere in the stock market (I don't give other small examples, because I don't know if you give them to the officials, and you have to go to Baidu, and the reading experience is not good.) Let's give a more famous example of the timeline in the book, although it doesn't happen yet. )

Isn't it easy to know the result and put on colored glasses to find evidence?

Feng Jianxiong has witty words, vertical and horizontal, and talks and laughs.

combined those examples, combined with the dog leash jokes of "joker-level economists", cleverly packaged, moved and processed, and then turned the stars into a move and beat back.

Being able to understand the truth thoroughly and explain it clearly is an amazing skill.

However, to be able to use the jokes made by the other party, to be humorous and to explain it clearly in simple terms, and to make sure that there is no original distortion in principle, is even more remarkable.

For those who don't believe it, you can open it and look at the answers to those professional questions, which can take into account these two points, which can be said to be one in ten thousand.

also blamed Fan Jian's life for not being good, originally just wanted to pretend to be a force and show his worries about the country and the people in front of his sister, but he kicked on the iron plate, and he encountered a terrible existence in his previous life who "sprayed all over the invincible hand".

"It turns out that China's stock market, whether it is bearish or bullish, is as big as a bubble. ”

"I didn't expect that in the eyes of people who really understand the theory of value investment, there are so many stocks in the A-share market, and there is not even a value for money. No matter how miserable it falls and becomes an ST, it is still inflated in the eyes of others, and it is not even worth this bit of fart. ”

Everyone in the audience whispered and discussed Feng Jianxiong's words just now, and most of them still chose to believe his judgment, especially those girls who didn't know much about investment.

Of course, there are also boys who question Feng Jianxiong's opinion, but it is limited to this euphemistic expression: "This is not right, right? Although there are many junk stocks of state-owned enterprises, there are also excellent ones, are most of them not worth their current stock price?"

After all, Feng Jianxiong said it very wittily, and he took the lead in attracting people, and the incitement was very strong.

"Xiao Feng, what do you mean, the relatively large stocks on the A-share market are all worthless? I don't think so. PetroChina's bubble was high in the past, but now it has fallen so badly, even if you look at the remaining oil resources on China's land, these hard natural assets may be able to support the market value of PetroChina, right? According to your theory, isn't it impossible to explain? ”

It was Dai Ling from the Industrial and Commercial Bureau who made the inquiry, not Fan Jian.

The main reason is that Dai Ling has really invested in the market for many years, and it is not as good as Fan Jian just talking on paper - Dai Ling is only the second generation, and Fan Jian is already the third generation of officials, and the family is not short of money.

So Fan Jian and even his father, Director Fan, really don't need to dirty their hands to do any dirty things, they are really good officials.

Just like in "In the Name of the People", bad officials are all born poor, and the children of the "Red Valve Family" do not need to be corrupt officials. Back in their grandfather's time, the life of the leather and the dirty hands were dirty. The things of fighting monsters and escalating and killing people and grabbing treasures have long been tired.

Dai Ling's question, I have to say that it is still very pertinent.

In the huge 9.6 million square kilometers of land, the oil resource options that have not been found should always be worth a lot of money, right? But after PetroChina was trapped, it has now fallen like this, even if the company's other assets are hollowed out of spicy chicken, and the management is not even worth a piece of, but the options buried in the ground should always be worth back to the current stock price, right?

PetroChina is just a typical example, and there are always 100 examples of other "high-quality assets" (although there are thousands of stocks in the A-share market)

These high-quality assets should always meet the "investment value", right?

After everyone figured it out, they also felt that Dai Ling was reasonable, and Feng Jianxiong seemed to be a little grandstanding just now.

Fan Jian also came back to his senses at this time, and hurriedly echoed:

"Yes, I think what Ling Zi said is very reasonable! We need to analyze this kind of thing quantitatively, what is it to sing high-profile grandstanding, and we need to talk about evidence! There are still a lot of high-quality asset stocks in China, but you beat them to death with a stick, saying that most of them are not in line with value investment, and classify conscientious investors as 'speculative gamblers', what is your intention?"

Feng Jianxiong smiled sincerely, first humbly accepted Dai Ling's question, and then analyzed in a discussion tone: "Brother Dai, of course what you said makes sense, a company like Three Barrels of Oil, even if the company is slaughtered and the corpse is sold at the price of meat, it is very valuable."

Unfortunately, the question is, will the state let you slaughter three barrels of oil and sell the corpse meat? If you allow it, of course three barrels of oil can be invested in value! But this does not exist, and the reason why international investors who believe in the theory of value investment think that even three barrels of oil are not worthy of being invested in value is that they are betting that even zombie state-owned enterprises in China will be saved, so no matter how bad they are, it is impossible for shareholders to have a mechanism for 'exiting according to the value investment system'.

Even the delisting of listed companies in China is so unsound, let alone the possibility of bankruptcy and liquidation, which is unhealthy - don't think that letting listed companies go bankrupt and liquidate is necessarily bad and harmful to shareholders. On the contrary, if a company like Three Barrels of Oil were allowed by law to be divided into corpses under the condition that their performance was too poor year after year, the confidence of shareholders would be many times stronger than it is now!

Now it's clear that you've become a zombie, and you want to break up and leave, but you won't even be cut off the flesh on the corpse. You can only cut your own flesh, cut your own warehouse, and throw the idea that 'the option of a small piece of meat on that big zombie is mine' to the receiver at a low price! Do you think the price of this "idea that it is possible to realize a piece of corpse meat in the future" can be compared to the price of the corpse meat that you actually got your hands on?

"This ......" Dai Ling was suddenly speechless.

He had never thought of such a skeletal and strange perspective.

The expectation of possible zombie meat in the future seems to be really not as valuable as the zombie meat that you actually get your hands on!

Seeing that Dai Ling forgot to refute, Fan Jian was also anxious in his heart, so he could only play in person: "How can high-quality state-owned enterprises be compared to zombies! Of course, these enterprises cannot be divided and bankrupt at will, and there are also a large number of high-quality state-owned enterprises that are well-run and not zombies.