Chapter 397 The First Criterion of Capital Games
In the world of capital, people who go it alone are the most dangerous. If you want to win in the war of capital, the most important thing is to unite.
The source of capital lies in the bank. No matter what kind of fund it is, if you want to get enough capital, you have to find a bank to borrow.
It was from the seventies of the last century that world capital became the baton of the dominant economy. At that time, they finally succeeded in bringing the Bretton system apart. At this time, although the US dollar has been decoupled from gold, it is still the world's most important currency. However, its free float gives capital more room to operate.
It was also at that time that the United States began to loosen its regulation of the financial industry during the Great Depression.
As a result, banks began to dominate the country's economy, stock gods began to appear, and the success of Wall Street made people feel that the world's economy would shift from the real economy to the virtual economy. Some developed countries believe that the financial industry is enough to keep the country rich forever.
At that time, the Third World did not see the ability to compete with the developed countries. As a result, the financial industry in the United States began to eliminate the "sunset industry" - manufacturing, and most of the money was circulated within the banking system. By the 80s, the regulatory system in the financial industry had collapsed. This is true in the United States, and it is also true in Europe.
Commercial banks and investment banks began to collude to build a huge bubble with loans to each other, which was the union of capital.
The bubble in the United States was so beautiful that Britain almost completely abandoned all industry in just a few years of Thatcher's rule. Banks in Europe are also beginning to unite.
It is these alliances that allow the power of the financial industry to permeate the politics and economy of the entire world, and the power slowly develops to the point that it is no longer subject to any regulation.
Without credit cards and installment payments, the purchasing power of Americans' middle class would have fallen by at least half. But the banks solved this problem by using credit cards to give the poor the illusion that they were still rich, and everyone owed the bank debts, so all the wealth of the people flowed to the banks.
They make the poor repay their loans and create the illusion that the economy is still thriving. So that the government will not think about restricting them.
That's the power of unity.
Unions are not only unions between banks, but also unions of banks and speculative funds.
In the years of his prosperity, it was through alliances with banks and other hedge funds that his Gaedis Company became the rising star of Wall Street's most likely new giant in a few years.
However, he has all the characteristics of a trader - he is intelligent and has the same personality as most traders - and thinks very highly of himself.
His early success made him feel that he was the smartest person on Wall Street, and that he could become the top person who could lead Wall Street. And Wall Street seems to think so, so he gets the opportunity to be a leader. For example, in South Asia, he led Wall Street to make tens of billions of dollars in profits in South Asia.
He had always felt that it was a testament to his leadership skills. But then in the operation of GE stock, he failed. Because he felt that he could succeed alone, he broke away from the original union. Of course, he didn't lose badly at that time, at least for a year.
But at that time, he also invisibly united the others - Link and Fren.
Later, he went it alone again, and it turned out to be a complete failure - he went bankrupt.
But he felt that he should feel bankrupt this time. Failure made him see himself clearly. It also saw the basic principles of the capital market clearly.
If you want to play in the capital market, you must first have two conditions.
There is enough money on the account. Also, make yourself one of the mediocre.
Never try to be a savvy person in the capital markets. That's Neil's latest realization.
Following the trend when the situation is good and getting out of the way before the situation changes, this is the most appropriate way for speculators to operate.
Now, the situation is clearly extremely favorable for his operations. So he shouldn't have done anything. Because no matter how much you do, it is redundant and even counterproductive. Now that he is "uniting" with those capital on Wall Street, he should be "gregarious".
After reading the newscast. Link asked, "Neil, how much have crude oil futures gone up now?"
Neil looked at his computer and said, "New York is $31.53 now." Several other exchanges are a little more expensive. Also rising. ”
"Maybe tomorrow we'll need to open champagne. Claire said with a smile. "I think I can go up more than 5% today. ”
"Today is the first day, and the strength is at its best. Maybe higher. But it may look weaker later. Neil is a little more optimistic. "In any case, this time the price of crude oil futures will at least push up to more than $50. Optimistically, it could be as high as $60. ”
Because he wanted to be a rat warehouse for a long time, he didn't dare to ask for too high a leverage ratio, but only asked for sixteen times. But some time ago, part of his funds were eaten, and he also needed some funds in his hand to prevent liquidation. At the beginning, Link took out $7.6 billion, but he only had a position of about $5 billion, and now it is more difficult to eat again.
But he is a rat warehouse, and it is impossible to wait until the highest price to sell. He told Link, "I plan to ship after $45. ”
Link didn't object, saying, "You have the final say." He smiled when he saw that there was nothing wrong. "I'll go down first. Neil, you're going to have to watch hard. ”
Neil pursed his lips and nodded, "Don't worry, I won't make the same mistake." ”
Link smiled and turned to leave his office.
In addition to being the president of Ozette Bank, Claire also has to manage the logistics of the financial investment company. And now the financial investment company is the most profitable of their team. Of course, he wouldn't leave this side behind for anything else.
Not long after Link left, he also looked at the curve in his notebook for a while and asked Neil, "What price do you think they will go to?"
"Not sure. But that's clearly not something that those funds can do. The government is definitely involved. There is definitely a political purpose in it. If it's just the fund, I don't have much to worry about, I'm worried that other countries will intervene. So we can't say it's a guaranteed profit. ”
Claire pondered for a moment, nodded and said, "Europe, Russia, and China are all likely to make a move." So this time it's actually very risky. ”
"So we're going to have to keep an eye on that. ”
For futures, the price does not need to be lowered a lot, as long as there is a relatively large fluctuation, speculators may lose their money.
If they want to retaliate against the United States, they don't even need to really bring down the price of crude oil, as long as they wait for the U.S. money to be invested in speculative crude oil, they sell it and lower the price by more than 5%, which can blow up most speculators and make most of the banks in the United States lose serious money. That would be an absolute disaster for an economy like the United States, which has the financial industry at its core.
Of course, if you want to do this, the country that makes the move will also have to pay a certain price, which is harmful to others and not to itself. It depends on whether those countries have the courage to sacrifice their interests to suppress the dollar.
As far as Neil knows, at least China has that capability.
Previously, oil prices fell because China has reduced its dependence on oil, and the market is generally optimistic about China's research and development of artificial oils.
Then there is the fact that China has a large amount of US Treasury bonds and dollar reserves. This is the basis for Americans' fear of China. The United States has tried to bring down China's economy several times, but the other side has enough dollar reserves and US Treasury bonds. It is almost impossible for the United States to bring down China's economy. This has been demonstrated by previous operations.
Of course, China would certainly like to reduce its dollar reserves, but until the renminbi is truly internationalized, China's dollar reserves are likely to grow, not decrease. Because more than 70% of China's GDP is driven by exports. China has a lot of exports and a large surplus, so of course it will receive more and more dollars.
The dollar cannot be circulated in China, but the vast wealth accumulated in China is the dollar, and this money cannot be left in circulation. Therefore, China can only print and distribute the corresponding renminbi, otherwise those exporting enterprises will lack funds. That, of course, also caused inflation in the renminbi.
Therefore, the renminbi is currently the most urgent currency in the world to internationalize. As long as the extra renminbi is circulated internationally, and the renminbi is used for trade settlement, there is no need to be forced to print more banknotes.
If China sees this as an opportunity to throw away a large number of dollars and, by the way, to publish a few negative news on the oil front, it will certainly cause volatility in the market.
Then they have the possibility of losing their money.
That's why he clearly estimated that the price of crude oil could rise to around $60 per barrel, but he still decided to start selling at $45. And until then, there is a possibility that the situation he fears will arise.
He couldn't help but keep an eye on it.
This time he doesn't plan to be a shrewd, but to be a follower. The wind was strong over there, so he went with that side. Anyway, he didn't count the people on his current side, but there was no way to keep him out of it.
If he succeeds this time, he can even buy the options to the financial investment company that Link promised right away. And the bank's dividends can also allow Claire to pay off all her debts after the dividends.
Compared with Neil's optimism, Link is in a good mood. Not only will he have twin children, but it seems that the financial investment company will soon bring him unexpected income.
"The old rabbit was lured out of the hole. ”
It was a text message from Douglas.
After reading it, Link thought for a while before guessing the meaning, and he replied, "Will it scare it away?"
"It's already starting to eat. ”
With such a code-language exchange, even if others see it, they won't guess what it means. Link didn't know what it meant. But he guessed that Douglas's goal had been grasped, and he had begun to do what Douglas wanted.
He replied, "That's good, watch it carefully." Don't let it run away. ”
"Rest assured, the entrance to the cave has been blocked. ”
When Link saw this, he knew he had guessed correctly. He didn't text back.