The Interaction between Political Instability and Economic Recession

"Okay, the foundation of this paper has been laid, and now it's up to Mexico to match it. Michelle raised the manuscript paper in her hand, and her slightly red face was a little proud.

"Whew...... You're done with your work, and ours isn't yet, damn Sue, why are you throwing me the most hated math!" John looked up and found that Michelle, who was writing the paper, had finished her work, and her already bloodshot eyes were even redder from staying up late.

"Stop talking, all three of us are math, and you're not the only one. Mike, who was next to him, patted John on the shoulder, and continued to lower his head to fill in the correct data, which Michelle got from Citibank, and the figures for Mexico's foreign exchange inflows and outflows this year are accurate to the weekly level.

Only Nancy, who had been copying information with her head bored, didn't speak, this little black girl finally integrated into this small collective, very hardworking, even Su Jingzhen, who has always been disgusted with black people, had to praise in her heart, if she helped Nancy change her skin and become white, then this little girl is more like a German than an American, very rigorous, and her work is very serious.

And Su Jingzhen and Joanna are whispering in the room at the moment: "I went back and checked all the cases involving Mexico in the past year, including investment cases, housing, agricultural products, etc., involving more than 80 million yuan, and our firm is just a small law firm on Wall Street, there are so many cases, and the amount involved is also very large." ”

Su Jingzhen listened to Joanna very carefully, and did not interrupt, let alone express her opinion, and this time Joanna really took the risk, so there was no paper document to record the data that Joanna said, it all relied on her own memory.

"I also asked some peers, and even some analysts and traders, now Wall Street investment banks or individuals, conservative estimates, their investment in Mexico is at least billions, of course, this is my own judgment, there is no data to confirm, but your classmates from Citi to get the whereabouts of the data, can confirm this judgment. ”

Su Jingzhen nodded, still didn't speak, in fact, when everyone got the data, they already had a relatively clear judgment on this point of view, as long as they had the ability to get this data, they could make such a judgment, which was not unusual.

"So I basically agree with you now, when Mexico is politically unstable, then what their government has done before will come to naught, and the market-oriented reforms and economic conditions that the international community has favored will fail.

Therefore, I want to join you in this plan, and I still advise you not to enter the currency market so easily, in fact, if Mexico's problems erupt this time, then its stock market will also suffer a heavy blow, compared to the currency, the risk of the stock market will be relatively low, at least the enemy we face is of a different grade, relatively weak. ”

Su Jingzhen nodded secretly, in fact, what Joanna said was right, but she didn't see the essential problem, Mexico's economy has actually been positive in recent years, and the international community is more optimistic, thinking that it is a hot spot for investment, so there is a continuous influx of foreign capital, but success is also foreign capital, and defeat is also foreign capital.

Large-scale capital inflows (mainly portfolio investment) have increased Mexico's foreign exchange reserves, but it has also caused it to have a persistently serious current account deficit, if the political situation is stable, then the Mexican government has the ability to slowly absorb and transform these foreign capital, but once the political situation is unstable, international funds are worried about risks, and withdraw funds, then Mexico will become a big hole, enough to bury everyone.

If you have to find an example or place to analogize, then the previous life of Dubai is a bit similar, once Dubai was intended as the Arab financial center of the Middle East, at that time there was indeed a large influx of hot money, but in 08 years as soon as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States appeared, financial institutions around the country were drawing blood to make up for the time when Dubai was pitted, as soon as foreign capital withdrew, the most direct consequence was the bankruptcy of Dubai, and finally found the Arab League to replenish the blood, only to survive the crisis.

"You know, we're not mainly trying to make money this time, let's put it this way, we're not sure about making money, being able to keep our capital and not lose is a victory, and a few of my classmates and I are from the Stern School of Business, if this plan can be successful, or if our thesis can get the attention of the professors, we will already be considered a victory, because this kind of experience can get us enough honors whether it is in school or outside of school. ”

Su Jingzhen once again affirmed his point of view, although in his heart, he knew that he was indeed sure to make money this time, but this could not be said, because it could not explain why he could have such a grasp, why the time node could be grasped so accurately, which could not be deduced by analysis and research.

"But I found that this opportunity is quite good, when you told me a few days ago, I thought you were crazy, but it turned out that it was not, now it seems that I am crazy, and I dare to join such a plan.

You know, although I am a lawyer on Wall Street, I have never been involved in speculation, I have always thought that it is a gamble, but now in you, I think it is not a gamble, it is a science.

Oh, my God...... I'm really going crazy to think that speculating in the stock market is a kind of scientific ......" Joanna became more and more excited the more she spoke, which showed that her mental activity was quite agitated right now.

Su Jingzhen smiled, slowly straightened up, and stretched out his right hand to Joanna: "Welcome to your joining, Lawyer Yuan." ”

With Joanna joining, Su Jingzhen's small group has obtained a business lawyer with certain experience, whether it is the writing of contracts or the exchange of funds between each other, there is a lawyer to ensure each other's interests, which makes John and them feel more at ease, because the money is all remitted to Michelle's card.

"Everyone, pause, Joanna has decided to join us in this plan, cheer, we have a professional lawyer. Walking out of the room, Su Jingzhen clapped his hands and reminded everyone that everyone welcomed Joanna to join.

Mike and John took the opportunity to stand up and applaud, and John stepped forward to hug the female lawyer.

Unfortunately, John's caution didn't come to fruition, because Michelle was one step ahead of him and hugged Joanna.

"Can I give me my opinion?" After everyone had been fighting for a moment and had quieted down, Nancy, a little black girl, raised her hand weakly, as if she had something to say to everyone.

"Nancy, you don't need to be too outside, just say what you think, and everyone will listen carefully. Although Su Jingzhen's heart is more disgusted with black people, Su Jingzhen has no such thoughts about the person in front of him, but gradually accepts this black friend.

"I just helped to enter and fill in these data, but I found that Mexico's economy is doing very well recently, and the stock market is also rising, why is this happening? Isn't the political situation unstable and the economy supposed to fall?"