At the beginning of the day, the streets of New York City are bustling with traffic, and a shiny bulletproof Cadillac gracefully turns into Lexington Avenue on Manhattan's Upper East Side, and comes to a steady stop in front of a building with a deep sense of history.

Robert in a suit and a light-colored suit were already standing at the gate, when they saw the Cadillac car flying the Star-Spangled Banner and the Waldorf Astoria flag pull up and unhurriedly descend the stairs to welcome the guests.

Li Jiaming, who deliberately changed into a suit and leather shoes, got out of the car, laughed and hugged Robert and his wife as old friends for many years. is indeed an old friend, the elegant Ms. Agnese watched with her own eyes how Li Jiaming borrowed money from her through KY1E, and how she soared with her iPod, and then became a top entrepreneur and well-known economist step by step, but the process is too fast like a myth. If she could turn back time, she would definitely invest heavily in Li Jiaming, instead of waiting for others to succeed and then share some reasonable profits.

"Ming, you must invite me to your daughter's birthday party, do you hear?"

Although the wedding was held in China, I didn't invite American friends to attend, although I later invited them to the party, but it was also rude, Li Jiaming hurriedly said: "Sorry, sorry, I will definitely invite next time."

After the three of them embraced, Zhang Zhaoyang, who had had several encounters with Robert, also hugged and greeted the couple, and everyone walked into this building that was a little old on the outside, but low-key and luxurious on the inside.

Today's dinner, as Li Jiaming said, is indeed because of Robert's kind invitation, because Zhang Zhaoyang is a distinguished guest, in charge of the two major Internet giants on the other side of the ocean, sogo and sohu Tesco, and they are also the inevitable big customers of Goldman Sachs and its vice president and partner Robert. At Robert's level, the daily work is naturally done by assistants and subordinates, and attracting large customers is his most important job. Especially the Chinese value personal friendship, and he wants to be friendly with these distinguished guests.

Everyone was drinking Nilgiri tea and black tea in the living room, chatting about more than ten years of friendship, waiting for Zhang Quanbao, who was rushing from Los Angeles. chatting and chatting, the topic was brought by Zhang Zhaoyang to the thing they were most concerned about - the backdoor listing of SOHU Energy.

Different from Li Jiaming's judgment, Robert, who is already well aware of China's national conditions, judged that China's coal industry still has a high expansion period of at least three to four years.

"char1es, your country is different. Although your economy has taken off and achieved an economic miracle that has shocked the world, your GDP per capita is not high, and there is still great potential for development. According to our judgment, your country has at least 10 to 15 years of high rollover, and will need more energy and mineral products, which can further increase the price of energy and mineral products. ”

The three of them perked up, and they all looked at Li Jiaming, who was answering the phone. If this is the case, everyone can take some risks, anyway, the stocks cashed out are enough for sohu energy expansion, but Li Jiaming, who answered the phone, shook his head and objected.

The reason is correct, but the conclusion is wrong!

Unlike Europe and the United States, where small government and large societies are large, the Chinese government is too powerful and is constantly growing. The advantage of a big government and a small society is that it can concentrate on big things, but the problem is that all the results are not politically correct.

"Robert, the economic exhibition can't be smooth sailing, and no matter how smooth it is, there will be ups and downs. We've been on the show for 30 years, do you think it's possible to do this for another 10 years? I think it will take at least a few years to stop and adjust before we have a new round of exhibitions. ”

If Lee was an ordinary entrepreneur, Robert would easily refute him, but Lee is not. In addition to being a great entrepreneur, Li Jiaming is also a very famous economist and won last year's Clark Medal. Even if he hadn't made great achievements in business, the Clark Medal alone would have made Robert think twice.

After thinking about it for a while, Robert still insisted: "Ming, your political system is different, and when facing downward pressure on the economy, your government's first response will be to provide strong stimulus and increase investment in infrastructure.

Ming, this is your chance! As long as the government invests more, more electricity and steel will be needed. For now, thermal power is your cheapest option, not the expensive new energy sources. ”

It's very convincing, and the government will do the same in the future. Before the Olympic Games even opened, the central government threw out an investment plan of 4 trillion yuan, which turned land and housing prices into sky-high prices, and staged a satirical drama of current affairs in which the people's government and real estate developers joined hands to loot the people.

But it is precisely because it is too convincing that Li Jiaming is embarrassed, he can find a basis from reality to deduce a given future, but that will cause immeasurable consequences.

Three people know a secret, and if you want to keep that secret, two of them must die, and although Frankfurt is too literal, it is a true wisdom. If Li Jiaming used his mathematical model to convince Robert, can you guarantee that the people present will not speak out? It's not scary to say it, but it's scary that Robert is likely to do the opposite!

Loyalty is not enough because the price of betrayal is not enough, and compliance with professional ethics is also because the price of violation is not enough, in the face of hundreds of millions of dollars or even billions of dollars in profits, who is sure of people's hearts?

After pondering for a long time, Li Jiaming gave up speaking with data, and instead quibbled: "Robert, as you said, our system is different from yours. The vast majority of our elites are in the government, and most of them can see the ills that we can see, especially the think tanks of the central government.

You don't know our culture, and at their level, they attach a lot of importance to historical evaluation, and they can't make major mistakes for short-term gain. ”

Is that a reason?

Don't say that Robert doesn't believe it, even Lao Gu, who has dealt too much with government officials, doesn't believe it, but Li Jiaming insisted: "Don't believe it, even if Lao Gu has dealt with some officials, but I have dealt with a lot?" I've been messing around with officials since I was a teenager, and my father-in-law is still a substantive deputy minister-level official, do you know them?

Don't you look at many officials who are corrupt but incompetent? Who can climb to the top without ambition? Those who have reached the level of the Standing Committee do not need to climb any further, they only think about their posthumous names, and they will not do anything that may damage their historical evaluation. ”

Forcibly replacing economic issues with political topics, even Lao Gu, who had decided to side with him, was shaken.

Perhaps those who hold the final decision-making power value what history says about them, but how many people really understand economics? They are politicians and need to rely on think tanks to handle state affairs. However, those economists in China are all raised by major interest groups, so can they go against the interest groups to which they belong?

For their own sake, it's no wonder that those think tanks don't advocate stimulus investment!

Yes, with the emergence of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, those economists in China have already found a problem, and are clamoring to avoid an economic downturn by expanding domestic demand, but everyone knows that it is unlikely to be effective in the short term, and the immediate effect is to increase infrastructure investment.

This point was known not only to Li Jiaming, who had opposing views, but also to Zhang Zhaoyang, but no one continued the topic.

Everyone is no longer a child, and we all know that pointless arguments are meaningless.

(End of chapter)

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