After becoming a shareholder of Firefly Pictures, both Warren Buffett and David West began to pay attention to the Hollywood film market.

After Eric's speech, all three of them realized that this year's Hollywood films such as "The Mummy" and "Saving Private Ryan", or the failed "Beverly Hills Police Detective 3" or "Law Enforcement" adopted a hairstyle strategy that Eric called a full release, so they also agreed with the conclusions in the first article.

None of the three of them were so breathless as to ask Eric why he was talking about this, but quietly followed Eric's movements and turned to the next page of information.

"First of all, I want to make a statement," Eric said, flipping through another page of the file, "My plan is to close Disney's hand-drawn animation department, but I definitely didn't say anything about stopping Disney's animation, I just wanted Disney's animation studio to move from traditional hand-drawn animation to more advanced digital animation." ”

Of course, the three Buffetts knew this, and they all smiled and nodded in agreement, they also knew why Eric said this, and now the rumors about Eric's move have been exaggerated to the point that Eric wants to replace the Disney brand with Fireflies.

Eric smiled and said, "Well, the next material is a comparison of the four animated films released by Disney between 1991 and 1994, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, Toy Story, and Bug Crisis." These four films represent typical 2D animation and 3D animation, respectively. Overall, we can see that the total box office of "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" is slightly more than the two 3D animations, but from the analysis of the box office curve, it is not difficult to find that "Beauty and the Beast" and "Aladdin" are very standard long-term screening models, and the eight-week box office of the two films accounts for only 57% and 53% of the total box office respectively. The corresponding figures for "Toy Story" and "Bug Crisis" reached 89% and 88%, which are typical of full-scale release films. At the same time, we can see that the number of screens in Toy Story and Bug Crisis quickly slipped below 1,000 at 13 and 12 weeks, respectively, giving up the screen to other films. Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin held 1,000 screens for 25 weeks and 21 weeks respectively, and I believe in the next few years. With full distribution completely occupying the mainstream of the market, it is absolutely impossible for cinema companies to continue to dominate a large number of screens for a long time in order to obtain more box office. ”

Tom Murphy asked, "Eric, that doesn't seem to be enough to prove the imminent obsolescence of 2D animation, we could have made 2D animation use full release mode as well, and The Lion King seems to be like that." ”

David West and Warren Buffett nodded without a trace.

Eric, however, seemed to expect them to ask, and said with a smile that remained unchanged, "So, let's move on to the next document." ”

The three of them glanced at each other and turned to the next page again.

"I'm going to explain it next. That's why 2D animation can't be fully distributed," Eric looked at Tom Murphy and said, "We have just reached a tacit understanding that The Lion King is just an event movie, and we haven't seen any expansion in the 2D animation market from the box office trends of animated films such as The Little Mermaid, Roger Rabbit, Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin, so I hope you can ignore The Lion King for the time being, okay?"

Tom Murphy nodded awkwardly, and Warren Buffett and David West were already looking at the documents in their hands.

Eric continued: "What you see is a table comparing the box office of four animated films in a single week. We can see that the weekly box office fluctuations of the two 2D films are very volatile. Even after eight weeks, there will be ups and downs, sometimes the box office has slipped to more than $5 million, but the next week it suddenly rises to more than 8 million, and the other two films have a steady box office curve similar to the city-dwelling films, why is this happening? The answer is on the next page. ”

After the four of them turned the page at the same time, Eric looked up at the three of them and said with a smile, "Is it the amazing strip of the first bar-scale drawing that catches the eye?"

After Eric's reminder, even if they didn't notice it, the three Buffetts saw the abrupt strip of the first histogram at this time.

The histogram in front of me lists the proportion of moviegoers of different age groups for 2D animated films and 3D animated films. In order to show the results more intuitively, I divided the age of the moviegoers into four ranges (0-13 years old), (14-18 years old), (19-28 years old) and (>28 years old). ”

Eric explained briefly, "We can clearly see that in 2D animated films, young moviegoers aged 0-13 account for an astonishing 41% of the total audience, while the same data for 3D animated films is only 26%. However, this does not mean that the number of children who like 3D animation has decreased, but because the number of viewers over the age of 13 has increased significantly, in the bar chart, the proportion of moviegoers in the two types of films in the 14-18 year old population has formed a strong contrast with the 0-13 range, 17% and 29% respectively, and the 19-28 age range, this contrast is also obvious, 7% and 16% respectively, I believe, in this age range, the 7% of 2D animation There must be a large part of the crowd to bring children with them, and the audience over 28 years old who watch 2D cartoons, I believe that they are basically to meet the needs of children. ”

After briefly describing the data, Eric stopped looking at the file and looked up: "Disney has always had the practice of re-releasing 2D hand-drawn animated films every seven years, because Disney itself also has children aged 7-13 as the main audience, and every seven years, a new group of children appears." Through these detailed statistics, it is not difficult to find out why the box office curve of 2D animated films is very unstable and why it can only adopt the mode of long-term screening. ”

"Because the audience of 2D animated films is very young, this part of the child audience is incapable of independent behavior, and must be led by parents to watch the movie. And even during the summer holidays, adults need to work. They are often only able to take their children to watch 2D cartoons on weekends or special holidays, and in order to cope with the very uncertain schedules of parents, studios must adopt the long-term screening model that is about to be phased out in order to fully exploit the box office potential of 2D animation. ”

"3D animated films are different, this new animated film model is not only loved by young children, but also recognized by teenagers and some adult audiences who have developed their own purchasing power. In the statistics of the proportion of moviegoers just now. Only 26% of 3D animated films are watched by children, while 45% of the main movie consumer groups aged 14-28 are combined, which is not much different from live-action moviegoers, which is why 3D animated films can adopt the same marketing strategy as live-action films. ”

After Eric finished speaking, Buffett and the three of them fell into a short period of contemplation, Eric did not disturb the three of them, raised his hand and looked at his watch, and before he knew it, fifteen minutes were about to pass. He didn't want the waiter to break in, so he turned around and whispered a few words into Kelly Haines' ear.

Kelly Haynes, although a little reluctant to give Eric's high-spirited speech, still obediently took the initiative to get up and walk out. When she walked to the door, Kelly Haynes realized that Eric had almost reached her ear just now, maybe a little further forward to kiss her on the cheek, but she didn't resist in the slightest, and instead felt the earlobes that had been brushed by Eric's breath inexplicably hot.

A slight closing of the door is heard behind you. Eric looked at the three who came back to their senses and smiled, "So." Shall we proceed?"

The three of Buffett nodded, although they could still pick out a lot of questions in their hearts, but looking at the information left in their hands, the three subconsciously felt that the young man in front of them must have considered any question they might ask.

Tom Murphy and David West have almost been persuaded by Eric at this time, and Buffett looks at Eric with a deep approving and eager gaze. He is 65 years old and still full of energy, but the question of death has begun to plague him and the company's other partners, many of Berkshire Hathaway's partners have asked him more than once about the company's next heir, and Buffett's children are apparently not capable of holding the position.

Although Buffett believes that he will be able to work for at least another ten years. He once joked that even after his death, he would have a spirit to govern Berkshire Hathaway, but anyone, including himself, knew very well that once he died, Berkshire Hathaway would definitely usher in unknowable changes.

Buffett has also tried to raise an heir more than once, but several attempts have ended in failure. And at present, this young man who can calmly see the development trend of an industry when the box office of "The Lion King" is so popular, and does not choose long-term plans for temporary profits, has keen insight and firm execution has always been the most important prerequisite for his ideal heir.

It's just that......

Buffett soon had a strong regret in his heart, Eric's current wealth and status also means that he is unlikely to be the next leader of Berkshire Hathaway, because Buffett prefers that his heir can focus on Berkshire Hathaway's business and not be distracted by other things, but Eric's property is already much larger than Berkshire Hathaway, and it is difficult for Eric to allocate too much energy to manage this equally large company by handing Berkshire Hathaway to him.

Although he regrettably confirms this, Buffett is still a little unwilling in his heart.

Eric didn't know what Buffett was thinking, and seeing that the three of them had no objections, he said: "So, after talking about the external factors that affect 2D animation, the next thing is the internal reasons." I think you're definitely aware of the difference in cost between the two films, and yes, the two 2D animated films listed here cost less than $30 million, while Toy Story and Bug Crisis cost $50 million and $80 million, respectively. ”

Speaking of this, Eric paused and said: "First of all, I want to explain a problem, whether it is 2D or 3D animation, the main cost is the cost of human resources, and every frame of the image of the two animated films is drawn manually, but the drawing medium is different. Because hand-drawn animation has been developed for more than half a century, the entire industry is very mature and the number of animators is very large, so even the best hand-drawn animators in the world at Disney Animation Studios have an annual salary of more than $100,000. But digital animators are a budding profession with a scarcity of talent. As a result, after the success of Toy Story, Firefly had to raise their salaries in order to prevent Pixar's skilled digital animators from being poached by other studios. Similarly, after "The Lion King", if Disney continues to maintain the hand-drawn animation department, these animators, who originally earned an average of $50,000 a year, may earn more than $10,000 a month in the future, which means that the production cost of 2D animation will double ......"

When Tom Murphy heard this, he suddenly interrupted Eric with a smile and said, "Eric, you just said that "The Lion King" is an event movie?"

"Of course, but just because I think so, doesn't that mean that Hollywood thinks the whole of Hollywood, doesn't they all think that the golden age of 2D animation has arrived?" Knowing that Tom Murphy was just joking, Eric explained, "The Lion King has already cost more than $45 million to make, and if it were doubled, the cost of 2D hand-drawn animation in the future could exceed $100 million." ”

Eric clearly remembers that in 1999, when he happened to see Disney's latest 2D hand-drawn animation "Tarzan" through the Internet, he played the banner of the highest-cost animated film in history and promoted "Tarzan of the Apes" The production cost has reached $150 million, and then the North American box office of this film is only 170 million, according to the experience that Eric has now accumulated, the cost plus the huge distribution expenses, even if the live-action animation calculates the subsequent peripheral profits, Disney is very likely to lose money.

"So, if in the next few years, cinema companies are no longer willing to waste screen resources on long-term distribution of 2D animated films, with costs of up to $100 million and the average promotional investment that could rise to $50 million, we can almost certainly be sure that unless event films like 'The Lion King' continue to appear, it will be difficult for companies to recoup the cost of films at the box office. Then, you're sure to say that the peripheral income of animated films has always been very lucrative, so let's move on to the next statistic......"

The three Buffetts were inexplicably poked by Eric's last sentence, and they all continued to turn the page with a smile, and at the same time, Kelly Haynes, who had just left, also returned to Eric's side silently. (To be continued.) )