Crazy, the current Internet industry is crazy, a ** millions, tens of millions, billionaires from this industry щ... lā

Under the madness and frenzy that can no longer be called a boom, Li Jiaming, who has already started a successful business, was arrested by his mentor Xiao Dading - ordered him to go to the school to give a speech and explain to the thousands of students in the school what the 'Internet wave' is.

It's a bit of a trick to get around, and Steve is the first generation of Internet heroes that can't be bypassed.

Steve Case, who is still just a marketing employee at Pizza Hut. His brother, who worked in an investment bank, helped him find a job at a computer game company that soon went out of business. However, through this experience, Case successfully entered another high-tech company, and then lost his job when the company went bankrupt and ...... unemployed.

In this way, there were ups and downs for a full ten years, and although he didn't make any money, Steve learned enough management experience. At ecase, he became the CEO of a dreamy and dynamic company, a small company with only a dozen employees called AOL, which is actually a provider of Internet services.

Stevecase, a business-savvy man, persuaded computer operators to install their trial products on their computers, and they went door-to-door to mail free installation disks. At that time, AOL was also encountering the first wave of the launch of the Internet in the United States, and they inadvertently stepped on the top of the wave and became the 'pig on the tuyere' in Li Jiaming's mouth, flying into the sky with the tide of the times.

By the time 'VegotMail' was released, AOL had 20 million paying subscribers across the U.S., and the cost of Internet access was $2,499 compared to other Internet access providers, as well as its own internal search, chat tool AIM , status updates and its own mailbox. In those eight years, the market value of AOL has risen 1,000 times, and the crazy Internet wave has accelerated the rise of this best growth stock in this era.

By 1999, AOL was one of the 25 largest companies in the world by market capitalization, more than General Motors and Boeing combined, and Steve Case, 40, was worth more than $1.5 billion.

Steve gained more than just profit, he also gained fame. He appeared twice on the cover of Business Week, where Wall Street was full of reverence, and President Clinton invited him to dinner. At Davos in Switzerland, global leaders listened attentively to his speech on the network.

And AOL has such a huge market capitalization, which can also allow them to buy any company in the world. So, on February 10, 2000, after countless meetings and discussions, the largest merger and acquisition in the history of the United States was born.

AOL, which only has 20 million users and does not have any hard assets, embraced the CEO of Time Warner, and Warner's big boss Tedtuer also described the excitement of this merger and acquisition as the first time. Because they will establish a charging model that packages cable TV, Internet access, and telephone, which will also become the business model for the future development of the United States.

I have to say that although Li Jiaming looks a little ugly, he has a very good demeanor, standing on the podium and talking eloquently, he has the confidence and passionate temperament of a successful person, and he has won the applause of the school and college leaders and thousands of teachers and students in the audience.

Unexpectedly, just after introducing the glory of AOL, Li Jiaming's voice on the stage changed and said unexpectedly: "The merger of AOL and the times indicates the future, but it marks the beginning of the decline of AOL." ”

There was a buzz, and then someone raised his hand to ask a question, but Li Jiaming on the stage shook his head and said: "Let me declare that students who are not from the School of Economics are not allowed to ask questions, and students with a doctorate degree or less in our school, and students who do not have more than three years of work experience are not allowed to ask questions." ”

Arrogant!

Although Li Jiaming on the stage smiled, his words were too crazy and arrogant!

is crazy, Li Jiaming has been in this garden for three and a half years, and he knows that if he wants to leave a legend in this garden, in addition to having real skills, he must also impress everyone. If you are about to graduate, although you have done a good job in three and a half years, it is not difficult to become a legend, but how is this enough? You have to borrow the pen and mouth of your classmates to lay a foundation for your future academic reputation! If you want to become a famous economist, you can't just rely on academic papers, you have to rely on everyone's praise or splashing dirty water.

"What's the matter? Unconvinced? Students, it's very rude to interrupt others at will. Isn't it rude for you to raise your hand and ask questions before I have even said my opinion?"

This big hat made those students who wanted to ask questions blush, and it also made Lord Xiao in the front row slap his hands and smile. This kid is good at everything, but he didn't see that when he pulled down his face, he had to have such a big achievement, so he had to have a long temper.

The first reason is that the two cultures are too different to blend.

AOL is an emerging Internet company, aggressive, and even aggressive, while on the other side is the traditional old media group, which has long been infected with the disease of large companies and has many internal factions. One side is radical and high-spirited, and the other side is conservative and old-fashioned, if these two companies can merge smoothly, then there is a ghost!

What's next?

Conflict!

There is an endless conflict, where departments ostracize each other because of their interests, and senior executives blame each other in the boardroom. ”

"Students, doing business is not about writing papers, and coordinating internal conflicts in the company is far from being so simple. Especially in this kind of conflict based on interests, the slightest carelessness can lead to serious consequences, and the size of the two sides is so large, who dares to guarantee that they have the ability to coordinate the interests of so many departments?"

The merger of two super-large companies with a total market value of more than $3,000 does not need to be explained too much by Li Jiaming, and some people with social experience in the audience know how complicated this is, and the corporate culture is so different.

"The second reason is time, yes, the market can't give them time to converge.

The charm of technology is fast, but the cruelty of technology is that there are no barriers. Brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Starbucks will still exist even if they will survive in another 20 years, and the brands they have established will have deep reputational barriers. And today's big tech companies, especially high-tech companies, may not exist in three years. ”

Speaking of which, Li Jiaming took out a delicate iPod from his pocket and advertised his company's products by the way.

"This thing, some students may know, it's called iPod. Since its listing last year, it has been selling well in the United States, and it is precisely because of its emergence that the stock price of Dimeng, a 20-year-old American audiovisual product company, has plummeted. It's hard to imagine that in just four months, the market capitalization plummeted from $5.6 billion to $13.7 billion, and it was just bought by the company 'Hi, Hear' yesterday at an offer of $14.2 billion.

Can you imagine how fast a $5.6 billion company can decay or even perish in four months?"

After finishing the advertisement, Li Jiaming continued to speak.

"The last point, and the most complicated point, is the statement just now, because it involves complex economic knowledge. Learning is learning, and my judgment may be wrong, but to refute me, it must be on the facts, and you can't mess around Therefore, students who are not majoring in economics and students with lower education than master's degrees in our college are exempt from respect, because you don't understand these professional knowledge."

It's really complicated, and it's very difficult to deduce a definite future from the available data, and it's so difficult that few economists in the world can succeed. It's easy to draw conclusions from a future, definitive result, and then look for the data you need from reality.

Li Jiaming spent an hour and a half to find useful data from the complicated phenomena, establish a mathematical model, and finally make a straight conclusion - there is a very serious bubble in the Internet industry!

"I believe that when the real yield of a NASDAQ stock is at the level of 65%, it is not considered overvalued, the second criterion: if the yield of the stock is lower than the real yield of 3% of the bond, the period of stock purchase is defined as a "bubble", and the third criterion: if the subsequent real yield is negative, the time of the stock purchase can be defined as a "bubble". ”

can't be calm, people who are not economic majors have a headache listening to this, especially the mathematical model that Li Jiaming announced through the projector, which is as profound as the Book of Heaven, but in the eyes of Dean Wu and Lord Xiao, it is tantamount to a treasure!

That's right, numbers don't lie, and if Li Jiaming's prediction is true, then this set of definitions of bubbles will become a classic theory with extremely high academic value. The current Internet economy is too hot, if Li Jiaming's prediction is true, his theory will be valid, and there will be a well-known economist in his academy who has not yet graduated.