1 Thinking has its philosophy, we need to learn to make better choices, the best way is to imitate expert thinking, in the process of accumulating knowledge, to do scientific thinking, careful thinking, learn to find and solve problems. At present, the scientific hypothetical paradigm can effectively point out a local optimization path for us, and it can continuously approach the overall optimum. Learn how to learn, always be skeptical, keep your mind open, constantly seek evidence to support your hypothesis and keep updating your hypothesis (like recursion) to create a reduced foundation for understanding the world. Of course, in this process, mistakes are inevitable, and this is the current condition. We need to know how the brain works in order to provide a theoretical basis for specific decisions.

The first is to discover one's own beliefs, whether they are scientists, skeptics, or religious believers? Science cannot explain everything, it is just a tool for us to understand the world, and the inability of science to explain does not mean that it is unreasonable, and scientific theories should conform to reality, not the other way around. Be aware of your situation, preferences, interests, personality, etc.

The controversy is essentially caused by information asymmetry, so we can only end up with a certain equilibrium at different scales.

2 The so-called illusion is a set of pattern recognition naturally formed by our brain, which is an expectation effect, and our brain will constantly improve this cognition according to a certain similarity, after all, this is the working mechanism of our brain, such as various face recognition, etc., with the help of this method. Human memories are actually stored dynamically, so they can be blurred or even distorted by external influences.

If you listen to the beat to identify a song, people will identify patterns that match their experience based on their own tendencies, which is actually a source of difficulty for people to put themselves in the other person's shoes. It may be that the process of life is a Markov process, and every decision now depends to a certain extent on various past experiences, so a certain transfer probability matrix can be obtained according to this information, corresponding to different processing modes of people. Finally, human thinking and even decision-making in specific situations are probabilistic expressions of these states. Whatever choices we make in a given situation are probabilistic, and this transition probability matrix determines who we are, whether we are warriors or cowards, and can be reflected (warriors have a higher probability of rising to the challenge, cowards are the opposite). But as this probabilistic model reveals, there is also a chance that a warrior will become a coward under certain circumstances, and cowards can also move forward bravely, and the possibilities in this world are endless. Pattern recognition of songs is also a Markov process, which can only derive specific patterns based on the past experience of unique individuals.

The unconscious is essentially the collection of all information, which can imperceptibly affect the various organizational measures of the neurons of the brain, and finally can cause people to have specific thoughts without being aware of their source. This process can be understood as the formation of a transfer probability matrix of the Markov model, which is bound to be expressed on a sufficiently long time-space scale (the law of large numbers), which is similar to brainwashing, which is actually the mechanism by which our growth environment affects us.

The processing of reverse information, which has a limited resolution, can still produce specific information because people are also collecting information in an unconscious state. Generally speaking, when people have certain expectations, it can have an impact on the collection of information, because people's brains have limited memory, and information that does not meet expectations will carry more uncertainty or entropy, which may consume more mental resources to process.

The working mechanism of brain pattern recognition allows us to see what we want to see, to be able to think that the earth and brain make up contours that do not actually exist, etc., and this ability to recognize patterns is the result of being trained like a neural network, because we have the need to recognize faces, and only in this way can we survive better. Guided by this expectation/objective function, we automatically ignore irrelevant information, highlight all possible correlated factors, and finally integrate them. The brain is like a neural network that quickly converges to a specific combination under certain objective function constraints. There is also the recognition of various scribbled handwriting, which is also the first set of relevant patterns (trained objective functions) stored in the human brain, and then mapped to the external environment to quickly match the stored patterns according to limited features for recognition. This kind of operation is fast, but it is also the result of enough training by the human brain. Essentially, these are classifications, and classifications can be divided by linear combinations of linear algebras, which can satisfy certain situations with certain constraints, such as finding general term formulas.

Unlike the recording of a deterministic memory card, the recording of the brain is a computer that assembles the input and output of complex storage operations, and the process of receiving information is also coupled with information processing, so the original structure of the brain may have many effects, such as people often do not believe in what they see that does not meet their psychological expectations. Unlike computer storage, which is encoded, our brain's storage is divided into different modules (linearly independent substrates) that can be combined to form specific memories (linear combinations), so there may be confusion about things that happened in different times and places. After all, memories are not stored, but constructed, so memories are malleable and susceptible (a possible mechanism of memory transplantation, since there is no difference between true and false memories, which are essentially combinations). Of course, the human brain has certain mechanisms to correct this error, such as multiple determinations. There is still a certain competitive game in the mechanism of memory and amnesia. We can do what we need by promoting/inhibiting related mechanisms, such as inhibiting unpleasant painful memories, and we can also promote memory enhancement.

All sensations are based on contrast, and the various sensory systems are patterned through comparative classification, because in essence the formation of sensations is the selective activation/inhibition of various receptors. The nature of the world is independent, and the world that our brain understands is based on the selective expression of the former, and all worlds are divided into various ways. In essence, the world we are talking about is also constructed, the real Heavenly Way is ruthless, we just use various definitions that we can accept, such as colors, shapes, and so on, to elaborate on the world, but these concepts that we can accept are not entities, but abstractions that depend on real entities. It's just that we all live in this abstract world, so the line between reality and illusion is very blurred. Therefore, I can accept the concept of ghosts, which is the same as the world on which human beings depend, and they are all worlds constructed by human thinking.

3 Know ourselves, our consciousness is a floating iceberg in the infinite sea of consciousness, we can only see the result, but the concrete operation is hidden. Like programming, there are various encapsulated functions and classes. These complex calculations are carried out at the unconscious level.

We sometimes don't know what we're doing because there may already be specific behaviors that are predefined, but need to meet certain conditions to actually operate, and the idea is to think of the behavior of the complex organism as a certain computational model that can be programmed by sequentially selecting loops and so on. In other words, we are constantly programming our brains to collect information from the outside world, which is essentially interacting with the outside world, such as when they use a plural noun, such as box, snake or peach, and give them some subtle response, as if you would use "en", "ha", and nod your head in a normal conversation. Eventually, as the conversation continues, you may start to notice that your friend uses more plural nouns in the conversation. At the end of this long conversation, if you ask them if they've noticed a change in their use of words, or why they use so many plural nouns, they may not even know what you're talking about. So this situation allows people to change their behavior without the other person's knowledge, because people interact with the outside world at any given moment that they may not be aware of, and constantly adjust to it, because this is a complex operation at the subconscious level, just like our other learning behaviors.

Self-assessment predictions tend to be higher than average. Because this is a multi-level and multi-angle quantitative evaluation, everyone can find a specific evaluation factor formed by a specific combination of indicators, which can make themselves at an excellent level, of course, the evaluation system of the society is relatively simple, and individual evaluation will not necessarily be recognized. The failure of prediction may be the result of human adaptation. Things are often not as tragic as we predict, and vice versa, and we are not necessarily happy to get what we want. This rationalization is also a psychological defense mechanism for human beings, so that we do not go to extremes.

Happiness can't be quantified, but specific metrics can. In fact, we consider modeling, and consider happiness as a function of multivariate influence, and individuals have different weights for different indicators, so it is difficult to repeat, different people may react differently to the same situation, we can only observe from a large-scale statistical scale, such as the quality of life will make people happy, and so on. We refer to the occurrence of object-oriented programming to define happiness as a class, and its internal parameters are the various indicators we evaluate, such as physical health, affluence, etc., and the specific internal functions need us to consider the interaction of these parameters.

4 Intuition and rationality, using mathematical thinking to model things, quantify them accurately and then make calculations. This requires us to use scientific thinking, put forward hypotheses and then keep collecting evidence to prove them, or else we will come up with new hypotheses, and so on. The solution to the problem is abstracted into a certain model and continuously optimized. The construction of this system can simulate the development of traditional Chinese medicine theory, and at the beginning it can be based on the simple competition of yin and yang systems, that is, the brain has two sets of basic perceptual and rational information processing mechanisms. It can then be further refined into other mechanisms such as the Five Elements System, such as various fears, escapes, pleasures, and so on. For example, specific emotion recognition requires calling different brain regions, nuclei, and neural circuits, and finally can be integrated to obtain certain classifications, such as happiness, anger, and other emotions, which is the output of the calculation.

In the consideration of decision-making, we may not be able to find the optimal solution, but in most cases find a better choice, which may be the local optimum. We can continuously improve through feedback.

Anchoring effect: All decisions are not based on absolute values, but on certain criteria, and comparisons are made.

The road to experts: fast pattern recognition, rapid extraction of features, and then combination to form a certain classification. This requires a lot of accumulation and training, such as the 10,000-hour rule. To do what you like to the extreme, you must mercilessly strive for victory in a certain field and work hard. Only by increasing their scarcity and irreplaceability can they obtain rewards. Although at that time, the object of our current career may no longer matter, such as when we were children, we wanted to grow up to buy more toys, and chose to pursue other things when we grew up. Only a moment of growth cannot be paused.

5. Learn how to learn, using the working mechanism of the brain and the mechanism of memory to learn. Only by having the courage to push out of your comfort zone can you truly learn.

Spaced learning (deepening memory, improving learning), learning by doing, and taking on appropriate challenges: I test myself in various ways when studying, such as doing post-book quizzes, doing exercises, doing flashcards, etc. Arrange your studies step by step. Different questions and materials are mixed in a learning period. Strive to find the reason why a given fact or concept is correct. Find connections between new knowledge and what I already know. Read some sections of the textbook chapters repeatedly. As I read, I mark the key points in the study material. Write a summary of your studies. Memorize new words or concepts using keyword mnemonics or image mnemonics. When reading or dictating, I try my best to make a visual memory of the textual material.

Learning is better only if you have more knowledge, as it is an exponentially increasing process. It can improve the efficiency of subsequent learning.

Memory encoding mechanisms, retrieval mechanisms, and selective activation/inhibition of different neural circuits enable the construction of this mapping correspondence. The underlying physiological change is synapse formation.

6. Practical thinking: experiments and data analysis, and finally discover the essence of things. The scientific method can be universally applied, i.e., constantly questioning and then experimentally confirming or falsifying. Everything is a linear combination in nature, which, of course, exponentially explodes. But finite paths are meaningful, so the Bayesian method, i.e., focusing on the experience of predecessors, is an effective occurrence, which is actually a kind of dynamic programming based on greedy algorithms. The state space created by the combination of various parameter adjustments is greatly reduced, like the pruning of a depth/breadth search. This storage-based intermediate search can reduce repetitive operations, such as the solution of Fibonacci sequences, in this dynamic programming.

7 The nature of things: The world is based on randomness and non-randomness.

Inspiring interest, the construction of an interest in things lies in insight, essentially answering meaningful questions, thinking critically, from simple all the way to complex domains. The manufacturing method can be understood as certain algorithms, such as Bayesian inference, decision trees, that consider multiple possibilities and give different weights.

Independent influencing factors will eventually form different distribution patterns, such as normal distribution, such as multiple dice thrown at the same time, and the sum of the numbers formed by them has a certain normal distribution. So the general situation is to revert to the mean (equilibrium), but there are always some extremes. For example, different people with the same disease may have different intensities of associated symptoms. The placebo effect may not only be a psychological effect, but the final accumulated effect of the interaction between different modules of the body to move towards the mean (disease is the effect out of balance), which is the so-called immunity of the human body.

Causal situations are dangerous, such as treating negative events as curses, where the intervention we impose only has a certain effect on the internal integrated interactions, but ultimately the effect is the sum of these effects. The formation of various stereotypes is also the formation of this natural relationship and is constantly consolidated. People are reluctant to change their minds when evidence is presented contrary to what they believe.

Change your perceptions: 1. Discover your own beliefs 2 Find evidence to support your own concepts 3 Discover the level of evidence and look for the scope of application 4 Whether it is reasonable to use this evidence to reconstruct your own beliefs 5 If not, what evidence should be needed 6. Discover the value of believing a particular idea. It's learning from your own mistakes, like recursive/dynamic programming

8 special thoughts

Memories of wonderful mental processes, such as psychics, out-of-body experiences, etc., may be constructed, but the brain mistakenly believes that this experience is associated with some kind of magical being, such as the effects of cannabis and other hallucinogenic drugs on the neural circuits. Essentially, it is mining information from the subconscious level to the surface consciousness. Suggest a new view that memories are not stored in the brain, but stored in the environment, and that we simply acquire information through interaction with the external environment (externalized knowledge internalized to the environment). So maybe religion and so on started with this coincidence.

Surreal exploration also requires a scientific experimental approach, and we need to acknowledge the existence of high-dimensional intelligence in advance. These seemingly unscientific things may be knowledge that is beyond the scope of scientific explanation. We don't have to believe, but it's good to be in awe. Because everything extra-experiential can be explained by a linear combination of special mechanisms of the psyche. Superpowers such as prophecy rely on certain psychological mechanisms, and the so-called astrology is the search for certain patterns. It's the belief that there is a correspondence to certain objects, and that we just need to find them.

Coincidental occurrence is a necessity in large-scale attempts, i.e. patterns that we are able to identify. The probability that a dream is related to reality is very low, but once it happens, we naturally think that the dream becomes a reality. This particular relationship formation leads us to think about the formation of witch doctors, which may be the inadvertent discovery of a specific relationship and then the continuation of it, but in fact it is only a random relationship. For example, if a child with mumps draws a big tiger on the cheek, in fact, this is not a treatment, even if someone sees its effectiveness, but this relationship cannot withstand scrutiny. This strange explanation of truth is not a simple relationship construction that people would idealize, and many times it is just a coincidence, not statistically significant. And because this idea is easy to understand and easy to promote, a lot of experience has spread, although there is a certain amount of real and meaningful (existence must have its rationality), but more is scum, this qualitative idea such as disease is sick qi into the body is in line with the cognitive level of people at that time, but also built a set of grand systems, but like the Ptolemaic system of geocentrism, although it can also explain the trajectory of the planets, heliocentrism can be better explained, so we need to continue to advance our understanding, after all, Chinese medicine relies on daily rules and strategies to simplify the complexity of medicine。。

9. Healthy thinking

Diseases can be understood in terms of probability, such as skin diseases with eruptions, 1 in 1,000 people will have internal complications, and 1 in 100,000 people may have brain damage due to measles infection.

The placebo effect may be a large part of the role of acupuncture, homeopathy, chiropractic, detox diet, blood food, and so on. There are extensive statistical citations that suggest that about 30 to 33 percent of people who get a placebo get better, essentially reverting to the mean, the result of multiple independent error factors. The construction of a large number of random independent multiple factors can form a certain distribution, that is, some people can recover health, and some people cannot. We need to avoid aftereffects, i.e., reverse effects as causes.

The mechanism by which the placebo effect allows you to somehow get a physiological response in the absence of an effective drug or effective substance is based on the change in external performance caused by the interaction of different levels within the group, on the one hand, we can think of it as introducing new variables, on the other hand, we can think of it as an illusion (psychological sensation is confused with specific physiological changes, response bias), of course, we can also use this very personal feeling as the object of study, such as the treatment of pain and depression is a good application, because it may involve complex neurophysiological changes, and other quantifiable indicators such as blood pressure and other symptoms of the placebo effect is not so obvious。 TCM may also cause the patient to receive ineffective physical treatment, but due to the patient's ignorance and trust in the doctor, as well as the body's ability to heal itself, it is likely that the body's natural recovery may be mistaken for the result of these medical measures. The placebo effect can be seen as a survivorship bias at this scale.

Complementing form with form is a simple concept, most of the cases are false, although there may be a few that have a certain truth such as eating animals ** to improve sexual performance, but this is a coincidence, not to the deeper essence. There is also the intuition that natural things are best, such as natural foods, which are largely just satisfying the psychological needs of people. But it's this concept that is easy to generalize because it's inexpensive to explain and satisfies the security needed to satisfy people's fear of the unknown. Of course, this concept has become part of our collective unconscious. At the molecular level (bioinformatics), we can often infer the possible functional similarity of sequences from the similarity between them, which may be a kind of rebirth?

The effectiveness of wellness therapies such as herbal remedies, mind-harmonizing methods, dietary therapies, or traditional therapies needs to be tested in large-scale, randomized, double-blind experiments, and it is likely that the individualized effect is not a hidden unknown mechanism, but a survivorship bias caused by the placebo effect. The real individualized effect is built on this basis, just as the greedy algorithm needs to continuously approach the global optimal from the local optimum, and constantly explore more effective therapies from the methods that are sure of efficacy, rather than directly a system falling from the sky. Finding a common cause is a good idea (e.g., illness is sick qi into the body), but it still has its limitations. Because even if you find this so-called immobility point, such as all the patients working at the same table, it doesn't actually change anything. This common ground is always there.

10 Practical thinking, dealing with topics about people's lives and livelihoods, making judgments and decisions about decisions is related to the production of forensic evidence.

The world is biased, and experimenters are expected to have a large impact on the outcome of specific experiments, so the importance of randomized, double-blind large-scale experiments is particularly prominent.

The Pygmalion experiment revealed that children who were expected to have more room for development did perform better, but this so-called expectation was actually randomly selected, but the experimenter affected the teacher and finally the student. A little bit of higher expectations leads to a little bit of better results, and a little bit of better performance leads to a little bit of higher expectations, so that a healthy positive feedback is formed, and the student continues to grow.

The matching of DNA, fingerprints, pictures, etc. is actually carried out by a pre-set algorithm by people, and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed to be 100%. Human judgment and decision making are involved in the production of forensic evidence.

When there is a relevant input of information (true or false), it is always easier to exclude the infection of noise and dig out possible patterns, which is consistent with Bayesian inference that when given a prior probability, one can further calculate the posterior probability through the input of the information. This may be one of the computing mechanisms of the human brain. The enemy's computation may be carried out at the bottom of the subconscious, and our superficial consciousness may not be able to recognize this process.

It is believed that conspiracy theories are simple and easy to understand, and because the brain is able to focus one-sidedly on the evidence that supports these claims (the confirmatory bias), it is always easy to abstract such a manipulative individual or group, which is consistent with the invisible hand of our economics, the "market", which can explain everything through a simple whole. Believe in the power of statistics, because local observations are always limited.

11. Scenario development

Information-decision-forecasting

The influence of the environment on people's decision-making, the weakness of human nature, people are always susceptible to being affected by the external environment. In the past, various moral education only changed the probability matrix of making relevant decisions in different situations, and the decisions of specific situations can often only be predicted at the statistical level, and it is often impossible to predict a single situation.

All behaviors are the result of the interaction between the inner and the environment, which can be seen as the transformation (e.g., multiplied by a transformation matrix) of the original internal framework, that is, the transfer probability matrix. The shaping effect of the environment on individual behavior is clear.

12 Change the world

Learn to use the tool of learning to think about the complexities of imposing opinions, to use the scientific method to test and determine how confident to believe, and finally to predict human behavior according to the individual's qualities and the influence of the environment. This requires us to focus on a specific segment, integrate all the relevant information, learn to analyze the problem and break it down, in order to improve the quality of thinking, and finally really make some changes. And this change is ultimately reflected in the implementation of various projects, which are broken down into small tasks that can be executed, and implemented step by step, just like the writing of various functions and classes in programming.

Course Summary: Illusion, Reason, Learning to Learn, Scientific Method, Testing Claims, and Predicting and Regulating Human Behavior by Analyzing Scenarios.

Being reasonable, thinking is the most effective shortcut for us to change ourselves and thus the world. Think more effectively, avoid fallacies, learn and remember information, learn to look for evidence to support opinions, and finally make the right decisions.