Chapter 156: The Divine Use of Logical Reasoning
……
Alice glanced in the rearview mirror, rolled her eyes at Roy who was changing clothes in the back, and then stopped thinking about him, and looked intently at the thought map in her hand, this paper was the crystallization of Roy's teaching.
The core of the theory on paper is the common sense diagram of logical reasoning, which is not difficult for Alice to understand, but to really apply the above routines in practice, and translate the information provided by the S1 team into actions that can verify the data, you still have to use your brains, follow the map, and improve the process step by step.
After a while, Roy turned over neatly, sat back in the co-pilot seat in a chic manner, and drove the entire body to shake up and down.
Not far from their car, there were six young men standing, they frolickingly pointed in the direction of Roy's car, joking with each other, "I didn't expect there to be a car at the gate of such a remote factory, brothers, should we go over and enjoy it." ”
"Forget it, the boss will call us in a while, I'm afraid it's too late. ”
"Hey, do you think we'll be working here in the future?"
"Who knows? If it weren't for the boss who had already paid my salary, I would have thought I had met a scammer. ”
"Look, the car over there isn't shaking anymore. ”
"Hahaha...... Three seconds of real man ......"
……
In the car, Roy pulled out the makeup mirror, admired his new appearance, and asked proudly: "Alice, how do you think of me, is it a boy who is very hip-hop, very fashionable, and has a sense of street fashion?"
Alice glanced at it obliquely, and saw that Roy's whole body had changed drastically, wearing a loose alphabet tracksuit, and the jacket was also printed with exaggerated skulls, especially his shoes, which were bright yellow and blue, as if he was worried that others would not know that he was wearing shoes. Alice couldn't complain, and reluctantly coped: "Not bad." ”
"Haha, yes, I think it's good too, I'll follow you behind your ass when I go out in a while, of course, not directly behind, but behind the side, carry your bag and get documents for you, and be a cute little assistant...... Don't worry, I'll naturally pretend to be stupid to set off your heroism and talent......"
"-Boss, can you please come back to the show later? I haven't finished sorting out the things you told me. ”
"Ha, say it earlier, I'll help you ......"
"-No, just keep quiet and give me another five minutes. I think the six lads have arrived, and I'm going to pick up the speed as well. ”
Roy looked out through the car window, and there seemed to be about six people faintly not far away, it seemed that Doyle was very reliable and recruited a group of well-behaved younger brothers.
Alice had guessed before that Roy wanted to do something with a listed company with financial problems. But there are two big questions standing in the way: first, how can you find out that a company has financial problems? Second, when you find that a company has financial problems, how do you verify and confirm it?
With Roy's operation and explanation, Alice finally got the answer, and the answer was surprisingly simple, that is, reasoning.
Whether it is solving a case in reality or a god-like detective in suspense, they all have an extraordinary ability, that is, observation and reasoning, relying on their wise insight to uncover the truth behind each cruelty.
However, in the real world, the difficulty of judging some hidden data is obviously not as difficult as the suspense case, especially the verification of the turnover of the dry forest paper industry in front of us, as long as you stay at the door of this factory, faithfully record the vehicles that come and go every day, after sorting and analyzing the data, more than 99% of the probability can judge whether the company's performance is fake. (Appendix 1)
Of course, the main reason is that this type of enterprise is relatively low in reasoning, and some enterprise business lines are very complex, and there are many service items that are virtual products, which do not need to be delivered through physical items, so that kind of enterprises need more careful data collection and subsequent causal reasoning.
What Alice has to do now is to indirectly verify whether the company's finances are correct by converting the problematic financial points of a company identified by the S1 group into data that can be obtained by observing the "nodes" outside the real world. If the verification is successful, there is room for maneuvering, and if it fails, you can either find another kind of observable and verifiable "node" to judge, or give up sniping.
For example, the node of dry forest paper's turnover is the number of trucks in and out of its factories every day.
Isn't it a bit ridiculous? Or do you feel like it's too difficult to operate in reality?
In fact, this is the same as a detective solving a case or a primary school student solving a problem, as long as the core "node" is identified, the probability of verifying the facts is very large.
Historically, there have been two such companies named Muddy Water and Citron, which, as top rotten eaters, have a keen sense of smell to find out the listed companies that conceal their deaths, and kill them with one blow and rarely lose. They stir up trouble on Wall Street, do the business of ants gnawing elephants, and make a lot of money.
Alice had already done a lot of research on Dry Forest Paper when she came, so according to Roy's reminder, it is not difficult to find the corresponding executable "node", even if you find it wrong, it doesn't matter, and then find a logical contradiction, and change it again.
After one final check, she called Roy and got out of the car.
Roy walked a little back from Alice's side, holding Alice's file bag, nodding all the way, with a silly smile on his face, it was really - into the play.
Alice glanced to the side, feeling that she was embarrassed and cancerous, and having such a boss whose psychological age was no more than 17 years old shattered her three views, and the whole person was inexplicably brought into another rhythm, and some of the principles that she adhered to before were loosened.
They came to the place where the six teenagers were standing not far away, and greeted, "Hello, I'm Alice, and this one next to me is ...... Intern assistant Xiao Fan. ”
Roy greeted everyone happily behind Alice, however, no one paid attention to him, everyone's eyes were attracted by Alice, who would care about Roy, who was next to him like a fool.
Alice listened to the six of them, either politely or shyly, finish their introductions, and she continued: "For some time to come, your place of work will be here. The task you have to do is very simple, but it needs to be carried out faithfully and rigorously, and the data I ask for is recorded. In case of collusion, the whistleblower will share the counterfeiter's prize equally. I've arranged for you to work in shifts, so it's not too hard, and I hope you can do your duty. I would recommend it to Mr. Roy for the outstanding members, and eventually I will have the opportunity to work next to him. ”
"Mr. Roy!" The promise of the last sentence completely ignited the serious atmosphere, and the six teenagers were eager to try, which showed Roy's huge appeal in their hearts.
Roy, who was next to him, politely handed out work orders to them according to Alice's instructions, and made a few simple reminders.
The six teenagers said yes, but they didn't look at Roy, but waited intently for Alice's new instructions.
Looking at this funny scene, it was clear that the legendary idol was in front of them, but they regarded it as dung, Alice pursed her lips and almost laughed. She reconfirmed that everyone understood the mission and left.
The teenagers looked at the figures of Roy and Alice, and their thoughts were complicated.
"I really didn't expect that the person who was shaking with Miss Alice turned out to be this boring bastard. ”
"Yes, Miss Alice's eyes are inversely proportional to her appearance, like most women. ”
"I've long seen that bastard next to me unpleasant, and I'm really going to be angry with this smug villain. ”
"Isn't Alice Mr. Roy......'s assistant?
"Haha, very good, if you tell Mr. Roy the news, the bastard will definitely be fired......"
……
The other side.
"Alice, I listened to you assign tasks just now, and she was very organized. ”
"Thank you. ”
"However, I have a question, how can you guarantee that the data submitted to you by these young people is not falsified?"
"How can you guarantee it?" ...... Alice suddenly thought of a terrible situation.
[PS] Appendix 1: Muddy Waters once shorted a Chinese company listed in the United States, Oriental Paper (ticker ONP), causing the latter's stock price to plummet by 90%.
How did Muddy Water find the problem?
It sent people to the door of Oriental Paper and found that the company did not have a few trucks in and out from morning to night, and they estimated that Oriental Paper's revenue was exaggerated by 27 times. It also had a number of other financial problems, including the acquisition of a small company worth only a few hundred thousand dollars, at tens of millions of dollars.