Chapter 1017: Feasibility of the Scheme
In general, John Mark's proposal is equivalent to a stock underwriting contract, and from this point of view, John Mark is quite bold. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. biquge。 info
There are usually two ways in which an investment bank is responsible for underwriting a client's stock, one is underwriting and the other is selling on behalf of the client.
Under the underwriting model, the underwriter needs to ensure that all the shares entrusted by the customer are sold, and if there is any surplus, the underwriter needs to contribute the remaining part to the next part, so the underwriter needs to bear a lot of risk. In contrast, consignment sales do not need to guarantee the sales share of the stock, and the amount sold is as much as it is sold. Similarly, in this sales model, the underwriter can get only half of the commission ratio of the underwriting model.
Of course, both of these methods usually underwrite new shares issued by companies, but this time, John Mark intends to underwrite all of A.C.'s existing shares in Eric's possession, and the value of this stock is unprecedented.
In the proposal, John Marker proposed that Morgan Stanley use its own stock sales network to underwrite all AOL shares held by Firefly Investments. Firefly Investments is required to pay Morgan Stanley 5% of sales as a commission. At the same time, in order to cooperate with Morgan Stanley's sales, Firefly Investment also needs to give a relative preferential price, and it must also be a fixed price that is not affected by the fluctuation of the public stock price in the market, which is similar to the issue price of the company's IPO.
From 1992, when Firefly Investment Company first acquired a 30% stake in AOL for $60 million, to the beginning of the year when it aggressively absorbed AOL shares in order to strengthen its control, the total capital used by the Firefly system was $1.57 billion, a large part of which was spent on the absorption from the end of last year to the beginning of this year.
However, according to Eric's plan, only 3.1% of the shares held by the Clover Fund will be sold off next year when AOL's stock price is higher, which will be enough to recover all the capital that Firefly has paid over the years. Firefly Investments' 32.6% AOL's shares, no matter how much they sell, can be considered a net profit for Eric.
According to yesterday's closing price, Firefly Investments' publicly held 32.6% of AOL shares are worth a total of $14.2 billion.
What does $14.2 billion mean?
In the Forbes list of the world's richest people at the beginning of the year, the Mars family, which controls the famous Mars Foods, ranked 10th on the list, with a family fortune of only $13.5 billion. If you ignore factors such as capital gains tax that need to be paid for the time being, just this $14.2 billion in cash is enough for a person to squeeze into the top of the world's richest list.
If it can successfully cash in full at the current stock price, even if it cannot be compared with corporate giants such as General Electric and Wal-Mart, Eric will definitely become the individual with the most cash reserves in the world, and the amount will far exceed that of all other richest people in the world.
No one knows better than Eric the bubble in AOL stocks, and his original plan was to use the period before the dot-com bubble burst to sell as many AOL stocks as possible and cash out $10 billion or 20 billion.
Once the dot-com bubble bursts, even if the remaining stocks in hand still maintain a very high par value for a short period of time, in fact, no investors will easily buy them at that time.
Therefore, if he can cash it all out in a short period of time, even if AOL's current market capitalization is much lower than the highest point in Eric's memory, he will not resist John Mark's plan for a while.
It's just that, after carefully reading the plan given by John Mark, Eric looked up and asked, "John, when it comes to more than 10 billion dollars of capital operation, how sure are you that you can successfully complete this plan?"
"According to the information I have gathered recently, there has been a massive withdrawal of international money from Southeast Asia, and some hedge funds have begun to target the Russian ruble, and may even launch an attack on the ruble this month. Once launched, I don't think the ruble will be able to hold out for even a month. John Mark didn't answer Eric's question directly, and with a hint of confidence in his tone, he said, "So, Eric, I now very much agree with the point you said last time, the NASDAQ 2000 is just the beginning. In response to this plan, Morgan Stanley will release a series of analysis reports on the Nasdaq index will continue to rise to stimulate investors' confidence. ”
The official economic analysis reports of several major investment banks on Wall Street have a very strong influence, and in many cases may even affect the economic data trend of some countries.
In the past subprime mortgage crisis, it was because the major investment banks on Wall Street repeatedly advocated the safety and return rate of high-risk residential mortgages through a series of public economic data, which caused a large number of investors who bought related bonds to lose their money. Misled investors include even European financial giants such as Deutsche Bank, demonstrating the power of Wall Street investment banks.
With the Nasdaq breaking above 2,000, many investors who are aware of the tech bubble are starting to become more cautious. However, if a Wall Street investment banking giant like Morgan Stanley makes a clear endorsement of the Nasdaq, a large number of investors will be affected.
By saying this, John Mark has already made clear his confidence in the plan and the level of spending.
Eric thought for a moment, then asked another question that he was more concerned about, and said, "So, how long will it take you?"
John Mark had apparently considered the details, and replied decisively: "In three months, Morgan Stanley needs one month to release the relevant economic forecasts to build momentum." If the Russian economic crisis breaks out as scheduled during this period, we will be more sure. It will be a month before Morgan Stanley can market AOL shares to our affiliates. ”
"In that case," Eric leaned back into the armchair, looked at John Mark, and said, "What do you think I should do with the plan I told me about in the video conference?"
At a video conference in New Zealand at the end of June, Eric aggressively demanded that other AOL shareholders buy 10% of AOL shares within a month, otherwise Firefly would choose to sell to the open market.
At this time, nearly half a month has passed since the deadline given by Eric, and it is naturally impossible for him to just stop it.
John Mark suddenly realized that he was still negligent. From yesterday afternoon to now, it was almost natural for him to feel that after he came up with this very secure plan, Eric would definitely not stick to his original plan.
After Eric finished speaking, he paused for a moment, and before John Mark could speak again, he said, "John, I'd better tell you what I think." ”
John Mark couldn't think of words for a while, and when he heard Eric's words, he nodded subconsciously.
"Actually, everyone knows that other AOL shareholders, including Morgan Stanley, are not too resistant to buying the 10% of the shares, and you are just worried that Firefly Investment will weigh the remaining shares on you. ”
At this point, Eric paused slightly, and continued: "However, your plan solves the problem everyone is facing. In that case, I can make a slight concession, and the 10% of the shares will still be taken over by AOL shareholders at the price of $4 billion I initially offered. Next, Firefly Investments gave Morgan Stanley an additional 15% offtake right to AOL for $6 billion. At the same time, Firefly Investment publicly guaranteed that it would not reduce its remaining shares within one year. ”
John Mark had a look of surprise on his face, he didn't expect Eric to make such drastic changes to his plan in such a short period of time.
However, after careful consideration, John Mark also had to admit that Eric's modification plan is undoubtedly the most beneficial for Firefly Investment.
Sold a total of 25% of the stock for $10 billion. Based on the current market capitalization of AOL, Eric has given up about $900 million in benefits. But in reality, this price is comparable to what Eric quoted on a video conference at the end of June.
At the same time, the transaction will be divided into two parts, 10% of which will be undertaken by other shareholders of AOL according to the plan originally given by Eric, and Firefly Investment will no longer need to pay Morgan Stanley's 5% commission.
The other 15% of the shares are underwritten by Morgan Stanley, which undoubtedly greatly improves the success rate of the sale, reduces the risk, and at the same time Firefly Investment can also recover the funds in the shortest possible time.
If it is only 15% underwritten, Morgan Stanley will definitely not need to take as long as three months.
Selling 25% of the shares, Firefly Investment still holds 7.6% of the shares.
The shareholding ratio has been reduced to less than 10%, although it is still a major shareholder, but Firefly Investment can no longer have much impact on AOL, coupled with Eric's promise not to reduce its holdings in the last year, AOL's stock price will completely get rid of the shadow caused by the possible reduction of Firefly Investment, and return to the overall trend of the rapid rise of the entire market.
Finally, keep 7.6% of the stock, once AOL's market capitalization continues to rise, Firefly Investments can still make some gains from the stock price rise in the future.
However, in this way, Morgan Stanley's income will be much lower.
According to the original underwriting plan, although the risk is somewhat large, once successful, according to the 5% commission ratio, Morgan Stanley will receive 600 million to 700 million US dollars in commission income, just this one project will bring about 25% of Morgan Stanley's annual profit.
But now, Morgan Stanley will only receive $300 million in commissions for the $6 billion underwriting package, more than double the original plan.
For a moment, John Mark suddenly had the feeling of making a wedding dress for someone else.
If Eric could see through John Mark's mind, he would definitely admire the other party's ability to analyze all his intentions in such a short period of time.
Selling 25% of the shares at once, in fact, Firefly Investments and Clover still hold 10.7% of AOL shares. However, on the surface, the shareholding ratio of Firefly Investment has dropped to 7.6%, which is enough for the market to let go of its worries about Firefly Investment.
As for the 25% of AOL stocks, the price is only $10 billion, which is far less than the value of the highest market capitalization of AOL in memory memory. But Eric believes that even John Mark on the other side would probably make the same choice if he could see the future.
Only by completely removing the invisible 'reins' of Firefly Investment on AOL can AOL's stock price follow the overall trend of the NASDAQ market in the next year or so, soaring like a wild horse. Otherwise, AOL will only be shrouded in the shadow of Firefly Investment's reduction of holdings at all times, and Eric will not be able to give up his holdings of AOL stocks, otherwise this wealth will only be wiped out with the collapse of the Nasdaq index in the future.
In memory, this time next year, the Nasdaq index will also break through the 3,000-point mark. At that time, seeing the continuous explosion of technology stocks, not only Wall Street, but investors around the world will completely fall into a complete loss of mind.
At that time, Firefly Investment and Clover Fund will continue to reduce their holdings of the remaining AOL stocks, which will not only not cause much negative reaction, but will even be coaxed by investors.
Seeing that John Mark was silent for a while, Eric had no choice but to take the initiative to speak again: "John, I believe that there must be room for bargaining at the 5% commission rate you just offered. However, as long as Morgan Stanley cooperates with my plan, I can now guarantee that the 15% of the shares entrusted to Morgan Stanley by Firefly Investment will be calculated according to the 5% commission rate, what do you think?"
John Mark hesitated for a moment, but a faint wry smile appeared on his face, which had remained as calm as possible. At the same time, he admired Eric's keen business vision, and he rushed to Los Angeles to meet Eric, instead of contacting Chris Hansen, Eric's agent in New York, with the idea of 'pinching soft persimmons'. At this time, I realized that my little abacus was completely wrong.
Moreover, what if he doesn't agree now.
There are no restrictions on commercial solutions, such as patent rights. If he doesn't agree, Eric can find Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and other companies to cooperate at this time. Once this happens, it is estimated that Morgan Stanley's competitors will wake up laughing from their dreams, and several major investment banks on Wall Street have always wanted to snatch the firefly as a super big customer.
Without further hesitation, John Mark quickly reached out to Eric and said, "Well, then, we have a great time working together." ”
Eric reached out and shook the other party, smiling and nodding: "Good cooperation." ”
Eric will be involved in the filming of "Gravity" on Monday, and the detailed details of the cooperation will naturally be handed over to Chris, who is in New York.
After discussing the matter, the two talked about the issuance of a $2 billion bond issued by Firefly Group, the sale of which began last week.
Although Firefly Investment expects a large amount of money, Eric has not terminated Firefly Group's bond issuance plan. Not only is this plan already started and cannot be withdrawn temporarily, but also that the appropriate debt can also play a role in tax relief for Firefly Group.
After having lunch at Sharp Corner Manor at noon and seeing them off in the afternoon, Eric took Aniston to Hearst Castle in San Simeon, California, for the weekend.