In a small conference room at Firefly headquarters, Warren Buffett frowned and quickly read the Clover Fund investment materials in front of him. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 ｉｎｆｏ

Buffett originally thought that he wanted to take a look at the Clover Fund's stock portfolio and would be rejected by Eric, which is a company's trade secret after all, even if he is also a shareholder of the Firefly Group, if Eric insists, he will still not be able to see it.

However, to Buffett's surprise, Eric agreed very happily and didn't even ask him to sign any non-disclosure agreement.

Now, looking at the pages of information in his hand, Buffett also realizes why Eric is completely defenseless against him.

Clover Fund's equity portfolio focuses on three main areas.

The first category is Internet technology stocks, the main investment targets include Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, AOL, Sun, Oracle, etc., this type of stocks accounts for more than half of the total investment scale.

The second category is telecom company stocks, that is, AT-T, Sprint, Verizon and other companies, and the proportion of investment in this part is about 30%.

In the end, less than 20 percent of the investment went to a few large cable operators, namely Comcast, Telecom, Basic Cable and even Time Warner.

To put it simply, these three types of company stocks are basically very hot technology stocks at the moment.

In recent years, both large investment funds and small retail investors have basically been chasing these types of stocks. Therefore, even if the Clover Fund's portfolio is made public, there is nothing special about it in the eyes of outsiders.

In Buffett's eyes, Eric's portfolio is completely chaotic and has no rules.

Generally speaking, the more complex a fund's equity portfolio is, the more resilient it is. But again, the less likely the fund is to achieve high returns. Because diversified equity investments will keep the return on investment of this fund in line with the overall market market.

Excellent investors have always been able to outperform the market. The reason why Warren Buffett himself is called the god of stocks is that Berkshire Hathaway's annual growth rate has basically been far behind the Dow Jones index by more than 10 percentage points for decades.

A fund's return on investment is aligned with the broader market, which in Buffett's view doesn't make any sense at all. Because the growth of the stock market actually means the overall growth of the country's economy, if we remove factors such as rising prices and monetary inflation, the real value and purchasing power of assets will not change much.

Of course, Buffett also understands that Eric is betting on the arrival of a new bull market in the NASDAQ market, and then taking the opportunity to carry out stock arbitrage, which is actually equivalent to outperforming the 'market'. Warren Buffett is not against stock arbitrage, and he often does it himself. It's just that Buffett will never hold arbitrage stocks for a long time, let alone buy a large amount of money for a long time without a purpose like Eric.

However, seeing the total asset value of the last clover fund, Buffett's brows did not stretch, but he couldn't help but be speechless.

In two years, the investment of $5 billion has increased to $9.1 billion.

If all of Clover's shares could be sold, excluding taxes and the Firefly Group's own surplus, the company would have made a net profit of more than $7 billion for the year.

Most of the company's financial reports in 1997 have not been disclosed, but Buffett clearly remembers that in 1996, General Motors, the most profitable company in North America, had a net profit of only $6.88 billion.

As a top investor, Buffett has not yet put down the information in his hand, and he has involuntarily begun to think about how to invest if he has the $7 billion.

Perhaps, you should first buy the national insurance company that you have been interested in for a long time, and you can also increase your holdings of Coca-Cola's shares. Compared with these high-risk stocks that generally have a price-to-earnings ratio of 50 or 60 times, insurance companies, companies such as Coca-Cola are the best investment targets that can bring long-term stable returns.

When Eric walked into the conference room, he happened to see the old man thinking or in a daze.

Feeling a figure sitting down across from him, Buffett reacted, put down the file in his hand, took off his reading glasses and said, "Eric, I want to know, what exactly are you going to do?"

"Firefly will invest another $2 billion in technology stocks this year, and I intend to accumulate capital for the next big expansion of Firefly Group, so that the company can minimize the proportion of equity transactions. ”

Buffett shook his head slightly and said, "Eric, you haven't experienced a stock market crash, I don't know how terrible it is, but I've seen some billionaires, facing a stock market crash, sometimes it only takes a day to go bankrupt." Most of these stocks that Clover invests in, in my opinion, could fall below your buying price in the short term in the event of a crash. ”

"Warren, I'm not a greedy person, so I think I can still figure out when to take a stand," Eric said confidently, smiling.

The reason why Eric did not hesitate to present the Clover Fund's stock portfolio to Buffett is because he is confident that this information will not provide Buffett with any useful information. Your most important hole card is actually a prophetic vision of the future.

Although the rise and fall of the NASDAQ index will be more or less affected by Eric's 'butterfly', the overall economic development trend at the national level will not change much, and Eric's current influence is not yet to this extent.

Warren Buffett shook his head again and said, "I appreciate a manager's long-term layout of the company, but in my opinion, you don't need to take risks at all now." ”

Eric spread his hands and said, "Warren, I'm not taking any risks. The $5 billion, as well as the $2 billion planned for this year, are the surplus funds of the Firefly Group itself. Even if they are all lost, although it is a pity, it will not hurt the foundation of the Firefly Group. If I want to take a risk, I will definitely use investment leverage now, and it is still easy to leverage the capital of $20 or 30 billion with a principal of $5 billion. ”

Although Buffett still felt that Eric's investment was too risky, he had to nod his head in agreement.

However, even with the prospect of huge profits, Buffett still does not agree with Eric's move, and he prefers to hold the funds in his own hands and make the investment he wants.

Berkshire Hathaway's shareholding in Firefly was 5%, and in 1996, the net profit of Firefly Group was $1.76 billion, and Berkshire Hathaway received a dividend of $88 million, while Berkshire Hathaway's net profit was only $725 million in the same year. In other words, Berkshire Hathaway's 5% stake in Firefly brings more than 10% of its annual profits. As a diversified investment company, a profit ratio of 10% is still very important.

Eric also guessed his general idea from Buffett's expression, and said with a smile: "Warren, in fact, you can sell the Firefly Group in the hands of Berkshire Hathaway to me, according to the recent Wall Street valuation of the Firefly Group of $100 billion, 5% of the shares, $5 billion, what do you think?"

Firefly Group will certainly not be able to come up with $5 billion at once now, but if Buffett or other shareholders are willing to give up their shares, it will not be too difficult for Eric to raise $5 billion in the short term.

"Eric, I'm not going to give up my stake in the Firefly Group. Hearing Eric say this, Buffett shook his head without hesitation and smiled.

He had studied in detail the current state of the Firefly Group, a company that was getting bigger and bigger, but it didn't have any redundant and bloated tendencies.

The entire Firefly Group, Firefly Pictures, New Line Pictures, Disney Pictures, Bowei International Distribution Company, ABC Television Network, AE Television Network, ESPN Television, Pixar Animation Studios, Disneyland, Digital Field, etc., this long list of subsidiaries are all high-quality assets that can bring huge profits to the parent company, and the shares of such a large media group that can achieve diversification but complement each other are simply Buffett's dreams.

As long as Eric does not make a company development strategy that he thinks is completely unreasonable, Buffett will never sell the shares of Firefly Group. After all, even if it is not possible to obtain profit dividends from the Firefly Group, the stock of such a company is destined to achieve stable appreciation for many years to come.

Eric didn't expect Buffett to sell his shares, but he still said, "Warren, you can also tell other people that if they want to sell Firefly shares at any time, I can give the most generous buyback price." The annual growth rate of Firefly Group is actually very low, and I think in the next few years, they will definitely be interested in Nasdaq technology stocks, and they need money to invest. ”

Warren Buffett patted the Clover Fund investment information in front of him and said, "In my opinion, this is just a bunch of bubbles." ”

"I don't think so," Eric shook his head, "After the Southeast Asian economic crisis, a lot of hot money will pour into North America, and when the time comes, the bubble that has accumulated hundreds of billions of dollars, even if it bursts, what is left will be a huge wealth for us." ”

Buffett still had a gentle smile on his face, shook his head and said: "Eric, I won't be deceived by you, my investment principle is not to involve areas that I am not familiar with." If I have my eye on a company, I will research it thoroughly before I make a move.

If you think about it, this is also true for you. The Firefly Group and Firefly Investment in your hands, as well as its countless subsidiaries, have developed to a very large scale, although you still maintain a good control over these companies, but sooner or later you will have a feeling of powerlessness, at that time, what you have to do is to give up the field you are not familiar with, and develop what you can control to the extreme. ”

Eric nodded and said, "So, among the professional managers in North America, the one I admire the most is Jack Welch." ”

"If you're interested, I can introduce you, but it's not a good thing that Jack is too obsessed with diversification, and GE's business has actually become bloated. I think over the next 10 years, whether it's voluntary or forced, GE will gradually scale back its business. ”

After Buffett finished speaking, he analyzed with great interest: "In fact, in the early days of Jack's tenure, it started with the fine cutting business, when General Electric's business and staff system were bloated, Jack once reduced the management level of General Electric from eight to three layers, and the company was able to travel lightly, and now has more than 100 subsidiaries with assets close to 300 billion US dollars.

But no manager's business philosophy can be perfect, and although Jack has done an excellent job of ensuring GE's rapid development for more than a decade, the problems accumulated over the years due to the flaws in his own management style are destined to become more and more serious. For example, Jack's overly obsessed diversification, in my opinion, GE has more than 100 subsidiaries, such as NBC television networks, which are basically unnecessary. If the next manager can't perfectly solve the problems he left behind, GE will inevitably go into decline. ”

Eric listened carefully to Buffett's analysis, and when he finished speaking, he asked with a smile: "What about you, Warren, you have been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway for more than thirty years?"

"It's different, it's very different, GE is in the real industry, I'm doing equity investment, and I haven't stopped changing my portfolio for decades. Not to mention. Berkshire Hathaway is now worth just over $39 billion, which is far from being bloated for me. ”

After Buffett finished speaking, he looked at Eric with a smile and said, "So, I'm actually still very jealous of you little guy, in just ten years, you have made achievements far beyond the lifetime of us old guys." Sometimes, I want to take a big gamble like you did during the Kuwait War, the economic crisis in Southeast Asia, and now the new wave of technology, but I can't convince myself to take the same risk as you did. By the way, you've made a lot of money in Southeast Asia this year, right?"

"$1.1 billion," Eric said, "I didn't expect it to be so much." ”

"As far as I know, the two funds in Soros's hands have earned about $6 billion this time, and his own income is $2 billion, but your principal is definitely much lower than the two funds in Soros's hands. Buffett said, and couldn't help but shake his head with emotion. (To be continued.) )