In a typical gray-hued middle-class home on Farnham Avenue in Omaha, Nebraska's capital, Warren Buffett hung up a phone from New York and stood at his second-floor studio window, looking out with a hint of irritation between his eyebrows.

It's Saturday, and although he didn't go to Hathaway, Warren Buffett is still working.

Outside the window, a conspicuous Cadillac stopped, and a well-dressed family of four got out of the car, pointed at Buffett's residence, and then excitedly snapped pictures of each other.

Warren Buffett used to feel a little proud when he saw this kind of situation, and he once proudly told his friends in a joking tone that he may be one of the few legends in the United States who is still alive and someone has taken pictures in front of his home.

But today, Buffett, who sees this situation, does not have the slightest smugness. Remembering what had happened in recent days, Buffett's brow furrowed again.

Since Firefly Pictures suddenly and uncharacteristically released its annual financial report in January, Buffett has anticipated Firefly Pictures' intentions.

According to their own situation, enterprises carry out annual financial statistics at different times every year, some at the end of the year, some after the tax season, and some in the autumn after the peak season. ABC usually counts financial information as a full fiscal year after the spring program is broadcast, but in order to fight back, ABC deliberately announced its own performance information in 1993 in advance.

However, although the media in the ABC camp did their best to exaggerate how rare ABC's market share of 23% was, and repeatedly emphasized the uncertainty of the profit of the film company. Firefly's huge profit of $1.19 billion is full of luck. But ordinary people, including most shareholders, only see the 'superficial' fact that Firefly's annual profit is more than twice that of ABC. In order to attract attention, many media have also followed this trend and touted the status of Firefly Pictures higher and higher.

Buffett has not stopped researching Firefly Pictures since he revealed that he was going to enter the television industry, and he found that in the first few years of Eric's career with Home Alone, he relied on some off-the-beaten-path comedy or horror films to make huge profits from the box office market in a short period of time. Especially after other studios have increased their investment in the same type of film, Firefly Pictures will have a smaller and smaller competitive advantage if it does not give in to the big studios, and perhaps like many solo film production companies that have disappeared like shooting stars, this miracle film production company may also fall quickly.

But things didn't go down that trajectory.

Since three years ago, Firefly Pictures has abandoned this kind of small and broad production ideas, and relied on Pixar Animation Studios and special effects companies in the digital field to open up two very stable profit routes for 3D animated films and special effects films, "Terminator 2", "Tornado", "Toy Story" and other big-budget films have laid the foundation of Firefly Pictures in Hollywood again and again, and finally prompted Firefly Pictures to annex Disney, the old film company. Become one of the top seven Hollywood studios.

Warren Buffett strongly believes in a theory called a 'bridge toll booth', which is simply if you have a 'bridge channel' from A to B. Then you can rely on this 'bridge' to obtain stable and lucrative profits. Warren Buffett's investment decisions in The Washington Post, Coca-Cola, and the ABC television network were all influenced to some extent by this 'bridge toll booth' theory.

In the process of researching Firefly Pictures' data, Buffett found that Firefly Pictures' Pixar Animation Studio and digital field special effects company have this kind of bridge toll station effect. Eric Williams invested tens of millions of dollars in "Toy Story" and "Terminator 2" before they were released, which is almost impossible for major Hollywood studios where most investment decisions are hampered by boards and shareholders.

Eric Williams's huge investment years ahead of other companies has created two unique 'toll bridges' for Firefly Pictures, and in the past three years, Firefly Pictures has been enjoying the huge dividends brought by this unique monopoly 'toll bridge'.

Judging from the pursuit of CG special effects films and 3D animation in the North American and even global markets, as long as Firefly Pictures can maintain the technological advantages of the digital field and Pixar Animation Studios, the toll bridge effect of these two subsidiaries in Firefly will not be invalid for many years to come.

ABC, on the other hand, although the ABC television network made a high profit of $520 million last year, the television network is still in crisis. Even a decade ago, the U.S. television industry was firmly dominated by the three major television networks ABC, NBC and CBS, and at that time, the three major television networks were able to easily obtain 30% of the market share, even if the business was not too ideal. But since the rapid rise of national cable channels in the 80s, the life of the three major television networks has deteriorated day by day, and in the late 80s, Murdoch from Australia founded the Fox public television network and successfully established itself in North America, once again shaking the market position of the three major television networks.

In this case, Buffett realized that the ABC television network has become less and less of a 'toll bridge' effect. Therefore, after Firefly Pictures threw an olive branch to ABC, Buffett quickly moved his heart to the business.

It's just that Firefly Pictures is far more difficult than he imagined.

Warren Buffett has never felt that he is a very greedy person, so when he first met, he gave what he thought was a very generous merger offer, but the young man refused without thinking about it, and the proposed cash acquisition plan made Buffett realize that Eric didn't really care about how much Firefly spent on the amount, he just wanted to pay as little as possible for Firefly Pictures' shares. And the formal negotiations that followed proved it.

Since it was felt that the bridge toll booth effect of the ABC television network was failing. Warren Buffett already had the idea of selling Berkshire Hathaway's shares in ABC for cash. Before Firefly Pictures proposed to buy it, he sold some of the shares one after another. But in the face of Firefly Pictures' insistence in negotiations, Buffett, who also has a stubborn side in his character, did not make too many concessions, and the private contact ended in failure.

But Buffett is a very sensible person, since he is optimistic about this business, Buffett will not give up easily, and he also knows that Firefly will definitely not change the acquisition target so easily. After Firefly Pictures publicly released the acquisition information, Buffett also took advantage of the trend to promote the acquisition negotiations between the management of the two parties.

And then. Especially in the last week, Buffett has found that this matter has begun to spiral out of control.

The last time this feeling of loss of control was four years ago when Salomon Brothers was in crisis, and then Salomon Solomon, the king of Wall Street in the '80s, went into decline in just a few years. Because Warren Buffett took over the company while Salomon Brothers was under investigation, many have placed the blame for Solomon's decline on him.

As he pondered what to do with the recent events, Warren Buffett saw a black sedan drive into the house, and his investment partner, Charlie Munger, who is also the vice president of Berkshire Hathaway, got out of the car.

Charlie Munger looked up at the figure in front of the window and waved at Buffett.

Coming to Warren Buffett's studio, Charlie Munger hugged Buffett and said, "The situation has been looking a little bad lately, and I think I should come here in person." ”

Buffett smiled lightly. Estrian Menks, who was actually his live-in girlfriend, was instructed to prepare some Coke for the two of them, and handed some of the materials that had been rummaged over the table many times to Charlie Munger: "Take a look at it first." ”

Charlie Munger has his own business. Although he is also a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway, he has not paid as much attention to the progress of the ABC acquisition as Buffett.

It wasn't until four days ago that Charlie Munger had to take matters seriously when the news broke down in the media that the Firefly's acquisition talks with ABC were falling apart, and the Los Angeles Times confirmed that the two sides had suspended contact.

In the following working days, because of the stimulus of this negative news, ABC's stock price, which had already risen to a high of $52, quickly retreated, falling by 9.6% in just three days, and the stock price returned to the level at the beginning of the year, at the same time, because of a series of rumors that have not even been confirmed, the shares of the other three major public television networks NBC, CBS and FOX have all risen by more than 5%.

After quickly skimming through the information in his hand, Charlie Munger raised his head and said, "From the current situation, if we don't agree to this deal, other shareholders may call an extraordinary general meeting to vote?"

Warren Buffett found a letter from his desk and handed it to Charlie Munger, and said in a somewhat heavy tone: "Not possible, this is a text message from David West, president of State Street Global Funds, to me, they are already planning to do this." ”

Charlie Munger took out the letter and glanced at it, and scolded with some annoyance: "These fools, don't they know which side they should be on?"

Buffett didn't mind his friend's gaffe, sighed slightly, and said: "If there is only one public television network in the United States, ABC, of course they will stand firmly with us." But unfortunately, Firefly Pictures is not the only choice of ABC, if it weren't for ABC's operation far better than the other two, maybe they would have let go at this time, this is the reason why David West and these people are so urgent, everyone can see that the business of the public television network is shrinking, so they are unwilling to give up this opportunity to cash out at a high level, not to mention that they can also get a part of the shares of Firefly Pictures, and the company that can achieve an annual profit of 1 billion US dollars will not exceed 50 in the entire federation. ”

Charlie Munger felt a little lonely in Buffett's tone, and said with a smile: "But we're not bad at all, aren't we?"

The frustration caused by the miraculous rise of the latecomer only stayed in Buffett's mind for a few seconds, and after hearing Charlie Munger's words, Buffett quickly regained his usual confident smile and said, "Of course, we are not bad at all." ”

"Alright, man," Charlie Munger reached over and patted Buffett on the shoulder, "Let's talk about what to do about it now." Do you have any good ideas?"

"Originally, there was one. Warren Buffett expertly pulled out a piece of paper from the pile of materials on his desk and handed it to Charlie Munger.

Charlie Munger glanced down. It was found to be a movie release schedule cut out of a newspaper, with several of the films marked with an asterisk.

"'Saving Private Ryan,' 'The Lion King,' 'True Lies,'" Charlie Munger looked at the names of these movies and looked up and asked, "Are these three movies the main films of Firefly Films' summer season?"

Buffy nodded and said: "Of course, "Saving Private Ryan" is a war movie, "The Lion King" is a traditional hand-drawn animation, and "True Lies" is a very ordinary large-scene action movie. And the cost is very high, reaching $100 million. ”

Charlie Munger is not very good at movies, and he knows very well that Buffett is the same, but Buffett has done a lot more work than him during this time, so he can only nod his head and listen patiently.

Buffett paused briefly to give his friend time to think, and then continued: "I called Warner's Robert Daley to inquire about this, and Hollywood hasn't had a big-budget war movie like 'Saving Private Ryan' for many years, because the risk of failure is very high. Firefly's distribution strategy for The Lion King is also very different from the traditional distribution method, and this kind of 2D hand-drawn animation is usually screened for a long time at the end of the year. Although there are no competitors of the same type in the summer season, this kind of competition will greatly shorten the screening time of 2D animation. Finally, there is "True Lies", last summer, there were two action movies of the same genre that ended in failure, one of which was still the protagonist of "True Lies" actor Schwarzenegger, and now Hollywood is very cautious about this kind of big-budget action movie project. ”

Charlie Munger remembered the materials he had just seen and said, "Are you saying that Firefly Pictures has completely abandoned the CG special effects films and 3D animation films that they are better at in previous years this year, and it is likely that they will fall behind these three films this year?"

Buffy nodded: "So, I think that if the negotiations can be delayed to the summer file, as long as the summer film of Firefly Pictures fails, then it will break the miracle of Firefly Pictures' film investment." We can take back the initiative again. ”

Charlie Munger nodded approvingly, but he quickly spread his hands and said, "However, the current situation is that Fireflies definitely won't give ABC that much time, right?"

Buffett showed a faint wry smile and said: "Yes, and, judging from the recent signs of frequent sales by Firefly Pictures, I feel that if they can't complete the deal this month, they may really have to let go." ”

"You started selling ABC stock at the beginning of last year, and I think you must be very keen to make that deal, right?"

In the face of friends who have known each other for many years, Buffett did not hide it, nodded honestly, and said, "Yes." ”

Charlie Munger said: "Then what do you think is the upper limit of Eric Williams' offer, I think it should not be difficult for you to guess, right?"

Buffett is best at data analysis, nodding and saying: "The focus of the controversy is on the share of the equity swap, I think he may only sell 25% of the shares at most now," After saying this, Buffett was a little annoyed: "If David West and these guys can be more patient, the 30% deal plan I proposed this Monday may be able to work, and at most two percentage points back." ”

"Otherwise," Charlie Munger tapped on the table and suggested, "contact Tom, how about the three of us go to Los Angeles, and maybe have the excitement of the Oscars." ”

Buffett shook his head lightly and said, "I don't think this will make the young man make any concessions, and now he has the advantage." ”

"I think the three of us old guys will come forward in person, and the young man will definitely make some concessions if he is smart enough. ”

Warren Buffett knows what his friend meant, he, Charlie Munger, Tom Murphy, and others have been in the federal business world for decades, and they have countless tangible and intangible resources in their hands, as long as they are willing to exchange them, they can definitely exchange them for tangible benefits.

"But these benefits will not fall on us in vain, we will reap them in advance, and we will have to pay them in the future, and I don't think Eric Williams will take advantage of us. ”

Charlie Munger saw that Buffett said this, but his tone had agreed, picked up the phone on Buffett's desk and prepared to arrange a private jet, and said: "I'm getting more and more interested in that young man, heh, and the cliff villa he built in Malibu, the last time I talked to John Bonn, he said that the world may never find such a great location for building a private manor villa, if Eric Williams is willing to make a move, he is willing to pay 200 million dollars to buy that sharp manor." ”

Although he has never pursued any special material life, Buffett did not hide his true opinion, nodded and said: "That villa is really good, although the actual value is certainly not as much as 200 million US dollars, but Eric Williams will definitely not sell it for 200 million US dollars, he is not short of money at all." ”

Charlie Munger dialed the phone, said a few words, then put down the microphone and said: "Haha, I almost forgot about it, your title of richest man was taken away by him just after a year in office, is it a little lost?"

Buffett actually enjoyed the feeling of being in the limelight, and of course he was a little disappointed, but he still commented very professionally: "It shouldn't have been mine, and he hid the data last year, which I can still see." (To be continued.) )