Chapter 315: Waiting for the Moment to Witness the Miracle

Anyway, what is Zhang Junyi doing at this time?

In fact, Zhang Junyi, who is now at home, in addition to being ashamed of being a different woman from himself every day, is basically trying to recall the movies that have achieved good results in recent years in his previous life, and he is at ease to play the role of a copyist, and the matter of shorting the Hang Seng Index is handed over to Zhou Huaiyuan, Zhang Junyi is very relieved, plus Zhou Huaiyuan reports every day without interruption, Zhang Junyi is not at ease!

As the days passed, Zhang Junyi's heart was also up and down day by day, his ups and downs were not because he was worried about his investment in the financial market, nor did he have anything to do with the affairs of the company under his name, the reason why Zhang Junyi was excited was because he was about to witness the excitement of his previous life, just like Liu Qian's words in his previous life, the moment of witnessing the miracle was getting closer and closer!

In fact, what no one knows is that in his previous life, even Zhang Junyi, who was born as a professional financial editor, had not experienced such a big era, and he only had a general idea of the rise and fall and development of the Xiangjiang stock market. Pen | fun | pavilion www. biquge。 info

In the previous life, even when commenting on Hong Kong stocks when doing shows, it was more still on paper.

Practice brings true knowledge, only Zhang Junyi, as a person who has traveled through understanding, personally experienced this great era of Xiangjiang, and even more than three years of touching, climbing, rolling and playing in the financial market of this great era, can he truly understand the true meaning of the financial market of Xiangjiang.

Hong Kong's stock market has a long history in Asia. The initial stage of stock trading in Hong Kong can be traced back to 1860, when businessmen from British countries set up joint ventures in Hong Kong, and the transfer of shares was in the form of private transactions through intermediaries.

In 1891, the Hong Kong Brokers Association was formally established, and in 1914 the association was renamed the Hong Kong Exchange. In the early days, most of the deals were made on the side of Xuechang Street, where brokers exchanged information, including the supply of goods, the price, etc., and then the brokers would take a rickshaw to negotiate with investors (rich guys). At that time, the pace was very slow, and there were not many transactions, mainly British companies such as HSBC, Hongkong Land, Wharf, HK Electric, Towngas, Tramways, Swire Dockyard, Whampoa Dockyard and Kwon Yik Warehouse.

Since 1950, the economy and society of Hong Kong have grown rapidly, and it is known as the "Pearl of the Orient". The reason why Hong Kong has been able to develop into an Asia-Pacific financial center and one of the four Asian tigers with a small land and an explosive population is that in addition to the appropriate measures taken by the Hong Kong government, management, finance, and taxation, and more importantly, after 1948, a large number of middle-class and above strata from the mainland, as well as knowledge and technical personnel, poured into Hong Kong, and coupled with the factors of political and social stability, the economy of Hong Kong developed rapidly.

Hong Kong's economic prosperity and financial integrity came in the 50s and even 60s. At that time, Xiangjiang was second only to the small island countries in terms of economy, industry and commerce, national income, and educational level, ranking second in Asia, and at that time, the other three small tigers of the four small tigers, Taiwan Island, Bangzi Country, and Singapore, were still working hard to make an upward trend! It was not until the late 60s that the economy of Taiwan Island grew rapidly.

It was not until the mid-70s that the pace of economic development accelerated. By the end of the 80s in the previous life, the economic growth of Taiwan Island and Bangzi Country had surpassed that of Xiangjiang. Xiangjiang is an economic and social form dominated by light industry, service industry and financial industry, and has become an important transfer point for cross-strait economic resources and family exchanges, and its status is even more important.

For nearly 100 years since 1891, the Hong Kong stock market has lacked a unified trading order and a strict listing and supervision system. The small Kowloon area of Hong Kong has four exchanges: Hong Kong, Far East, Gold and Silver and Kowloon. Large investors, dealers and industry leaders hold shares in the market, calling for wind and rain, so that the Hong Kong stock market has not been able to break through the bottleneck and become a truly global stock market.

Zhang Junyi vaguely remembers that until 1986, that is, four years later, on April 2, 1986, the four exchanges in Hong Kong merged to form the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (referred to as the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited).

After the liberation of China in 1949, some brokers of the Shanghai Stock Exchange moved to Hong Kong, bringing talents and funds. Listed companies such as Wheelock also moved to Hong Kong for listing, and the Hong Kong stock market was once active. Before the liberation, Jardine Matheson's main business was concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta basin, but after the liberation, the trade and yarn factory business invested in China were lost, but fortunately, there were still many investments in Xiangjiang, such as Hongkong Land and Wharf. After recuperation, in 1961, Jardine Matheson Holdings was listed in Heung Kong, issuing 900,000 shares at 16 yuan per share, which was oversubscribed 56 times at that time, and the opening price was 31.25 yuan. In 1965, there was a bank run in Xiangjiang, and the share price of Jardine Matheson fell below the listing price, only 12 yuan.

In 1967, when riots broke out in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Exchange was suspended twice for 10 days each time. According to the late veteran broker Mo Yingji, there is no difference between whether the market is suspended or not, because there is only selling, not buying, and no transaction can be reached. However, the bank requires the broker to put the selling price as high as possible when placing a sell order, and the bank uses the selling price to evaluate and minimize the occurrence of "liquidation". In the 60s, there were only dozens of listed stocks in Hong Kong, and the number of brokers was only a few dozen, and the transactions were very sparse.

Even if Zhang Junyi studied these things in textbooks in his previous life, and even remembered them firmly in his mind, as a young man born in the new century born after the 80s and grew up under the five-star red flag, he still can't experience such things if he hasn't experienced them.

In the past life, in the nearly 100-year history of the stock market, there have been four major booms in Hong Kong.

1969-1973 Stock Market Frenzy (First Stock Market Frenzy): In the 70s, Heung Kong stocks began to become popular, with the establishment of the Far Eastern Exchange in December 1969, the Gold and Silver Exchange in 1971, and the Kowloon Stock Exchange in 1972. After the establishment of the four institutes, many members have been added, and the participation of the general public has also increased.

In 1969, the citizens of Hong Kong invested in stocks, initially with the mentality of preserving value. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the British pound, which is depreciating, and Hong Kong is starting to experience high inflation. In addition, in 1967, the Chinese high-level ordered the Shenzhen garrison not to allow the masses of the Cultural Revolution to pour into Xiangjiang, which indicated that Xiangjiang was valuable to China and that the state would focus on protecting it. At that time, the minimum spending was about HK$10,000, and the transaction had to be placed with the broker's errands, who secured their clients with their own assets before they could be traded through the broker.

The broker's commission is about 0.75%-1%, and the errand runs share the commission from it. After the establishment of the Far Eastern Exchange in December 1969, the number of brokers increased dramatically, and these brokers were much more active, reduced commissions, and provided margin services, which could make 90% of mortgages.

In 1969 the estate gradually recovered from the 1967 riots. At the end of 1969, an American consortium bid for the land of the Sheraton Tsim Sha Tsui Hotel, which stimulated the real estate market, and small shareholders also restored their confidence, and the stock market was considered to be an easy product to cash out.

From 1969 to 1973, the stock market frenzy in Hong Kong brought the attention of British brokerage firms to the Hong Kong stock market. In 1971, Victor and Ka Hui were the first to arrive in Hong Kong to trade Hong Kong securities for foreign funds. Throughout the 70s, more and more British-funded brokerage firms came to Hong Kong, and at the peak there were more than a dozen of them. But this changed dramatically in the mid-80s, when the British financial sector underwent a major overhaul in 1986 called Big Bang, which allowed foreign banks to buy British brokerages and financial institutions.

Therefore, in the late 80s, these more than a dozen British-funded brokerage firms with branches in Heung Kong were successively swallowed up by British, European and American banks or investment banks. After a series of acquisitions, the local securities market in the 90s was gradually monopolized by large banks and investment banks in Europe and the United States, and the number of local brokers gradually dropped from nearly 1,000 at the peak of the "Four Sessions" to less than 400 at present, and the share of transactions dropped from over 90% to less than 30%.

The whole sixties was the period when Hong Kong's industry took off. From 1962 to 1973, Hong Kong's GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 9.4% after adjusting for inflation. GDP in 1962 was HK$8.6 billion, rising to HK$41 billion in 1973.

In the 60s, the Hong Kong stock market was basically out of touch with economic development, and its industrial achievements were world-renowned, and it was the world's largest exporter of textiles and garments, clocks and watches, toys, wigs, plastic flowers, etc., and the tourism industry was also well-known as a "shopping paradise". The employment situation is good, and the unemployment rate is close to zero.

The Hang Seng Index, which was established in July 1964, was 100 points, and in 1965 there was a run on banks, in 1966 there was a Cultural Revolution in China, and in 1967 there was a riot in Hong Kong, and the Hang Seng Index fell for three consecutive years to the lowest point in 1967 at 58 points.

Hong Kong's economic foundation is sound, its savings capacity is high, and its external financial market is volatile: in 1967, the pound depreciated, and the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the pound, and with the depreciation of the pound, prices in Hong Kong began to rise rapidly. In 1971, the United States abolished the gold settlement system in the balance of payments, which stimulated the rise in gold prices, and the Vietnam War in the sixties stimulated the demand for commodities, so that from the late sixties to the early seventies, all commodities including copper, iron, cotton and precious metals rose in price. The savings rate is high and there is a fear of inflation, so small people should invest their savings.

The successful auction of land in 1969 led to a flow of money to stocks. The stock market continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 107 points in early 1969 to a peak of 1,775 points in March 1973. Between 1971 and 1973, there were many new listings, including Cheung Kong, New World Properties, Sun Hung Kai Properties, etc. The listing was subscribed at the par price of one yuan, and the stock price soared 20-30 times after the listing, which made shareholders fascinated. At that time, the mentality was to prefer to buy real estate stocks rather than real estate, and although the former was expensive, it was easy to cash out. Hong Kong's emerging industry at the time was real estate stocks, similar to Wall Street's 1929 airline stocks.

It has been swallowed up by British, European and American banks or investment banks. After a series of acquisitions, the local securities market was gradually monopolized by large banks and investment banks in Europe and the United States in the 90s, and the number of local brokers gradually dropped from nearly 1,000 at the peak of the "Four Sessions" to less than 400 at present, and the transaction share dropped from over 90% to less than 30%.

1973 Hong Kong Stock Market Bubble (First Stock Market Crash)

The whole sixties was a period of industrial take-off in Hong Kong. From 1962 to 1973, Hong Kong's GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 9.4% after adjusting for inflation. GDP in 1962 was HK$8.6 billion, rising to HK$41 billion (including inflation) in 1973. In the 60s, Hong Kong's stock market was largely disconnected from economic development, and its industrial achievements were world-renowned, and it was the world's largest exporter of textiles and garments, clocks and watches, toys, wigs, plastic flowers, etc., and its tourism industry was also well-known as a "shopping paradise". The employment situation is good, and the unemployment rate is close to zero. The Hang Seng Index, which was established in July 1964, was 100 points, and in 1965 there was a run on banks, in 1966 there was a Cultural Revolution in China, and in 1967 there was a riot in Hong Kong, and the Hang Seng Index fell for three consecutive years to the lowest point in 1967 at 58 points.

Hong Kong's economic fundamentals are sound, its savings capacity is high, and its external financial markets are volatile: in 1967, the pound depreciated, and the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the pound, and as the pound depreciated, Hong Kong's prices began to rise rapidly. In 1971, the United States abolished the gold settlement system in the balance of payments, which stimulated the rise in gold prices, and the Vietnam War in the sixties stimulated the demand for commodities, so from the late sixties to the early seventies, all commodities including copper, iron, cotton and precious metals rose in price. The savings rate is high and there is a fear of inflation, so small people should invest their savings.

The successful auction of land in 1969 led to a flow of money to stocks. The stock market continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index rising from 107 points in early 1969 to a peak of 1,775 points in March 1973. Between 1971 and 1973, there were many new listings, including Cheung Kong, New World Properties, Sun Hung Kai Properties, etc. The listing was subscribed at the par price of one yuan, and the stock price soared 20-30 times after the listing, which made shareholders fascinated. At that time, the mentality was to prefer to buy real estate stocks rather than real estate, and although the former was expensive, it was easy to cash out. Hong Kong's emerging industry at that time was real estate stocks, similar to the aviation stocks on Wall Street in the United States in 1929.

The 1973 Xiangjiang stock market bubble was also the first stock market crash in the history of Xiangjiang, because Zhang Junyi had not crossed at that time, so the opportunity to make a fortune at that time did not catch up, and the Xiangjiang stock market crash was a copy of the United States in 1929.

The establishment of the Far Eastern Exchange in December 1969, which allowed small investors to do 90% margin trading through brokerage firms, was the same as Wall Street in the twenties, which later triggered the stock market bubble of 1973. At that time, there was no securities regulatory or securities law in Hong Kong, and banking regulations were relaxed, and the form of margin was also in the form of banks lending money to brokerage banks, which in turn lent money to customers. The incumbents were helpless because of the lack of effective management, and it is certain that they did not learn from the 1929 US stock market bubble.

In order to push up its share price, Hongkong Land offered to give 5 new shares of Hongkong Land for every old share of Hongkong Land, which rose to a historical high of 67 yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 230 times. In the 21st year of his previous life, Zhang Junyi clearly remembers that Hongkong Land's share price has not yet returned to the level of that year.

In March 1973, after the Hang Seng Index rose to 1,775 points, the market found that fake shares of Hopewell were circulating. Subsequently, most similar situations were discovered, causing investors to sell at any cost, and the stock price fell sharply, triggering a wave of margin calls. After peaking in 1973, the Hang Seng Index fell to its lowest level of 150 points in December 1974.