Chapter 969: The so-called decade of disappearance

"The little good mother is right, the strength of neon over the years is because others are too weak, and although the technical strength of neon has been improving for more than ten years, others have improved faster and become relatively stronger, and neon is not so strong. When the neon economy was in full swing, we were turning to a market economy that had suffered from the planned economy, and the surrounding Asian tigers, ASEAN and other countries and regions had already taken the lead. After more than 10 years of market baptism, these forces have successively challenged neon products. The people of these regions, who share the tradition of industriousness and frugality among the Neon people, have launched a charge in the face of competitors whose incomes are dozens of times their own. Coupled with the fact that the American Eagle will not let the neon grow bigger and keep castrating, we will catch up sooner or later. Gan Liangsheng said confidently.

"In short, while they are crazy now, someone will take over, we will withdraw, don't jump off the building in the end, no one wants it, and it will be smashed in our hands." Hua Junyao reminded Hua Guodao.

After being emasculated by the American eagle, the neon economy inevitably declined, and Neon called it the 'Lost Decade.' ’

Soon, with the fall of the woolly bear, the end of the Cold War, the countries of the world again focused on economic development, the planned economy has proved unfeasible, the market economy is popular all over the world, and the world for the first time ushered in the global economic chorus.

Trade is the foundation of a market economy, and all parties involved in free trade are based on their comparative advantages. The competitive advantage is relative, you will appear strong when you are not strong and others are weak; You appear weak when you are strong and others are stronger.

At this point, the economy built on a super competitive advantage inevitably underwent a neon recession as its competitiveness declined comparatively.

Therefore, the essence of the neon recession is caused by the relative decline in competitiveness compared with other countries. The only way to solve this problem is to distance oneself from other countries by significantly improving one's own competitiveness, or else it will have to adapt to this process. In 90 years, Neon's employee income was more than 50 times that of Chinese employees, and this indicator was still more than 10 times that of later generations.

In addition to real estate, Neon has also bought some companies in the American Eagle, which are already entering middle age, while American companies and governments have relied on the funds to invest in various emerging industries. After entering the 90s, the American Eagle quickly got rid of the economic stagnation of the 80s and created the "Clinton miracle" of long-term economic growth.

That is, the American Eagle successfully detonated the computer and network technology revolution, and the American Eagle that led this technological revolution naturally gained a super competitive advantage, and thus enjoyed the glory for more than ten years. Because the strong development of the American Eagle at the end of the last century coincided with the appreciation of the yen after the signing of the Plaza Accord, and because the neon regulation and control of the economy went wrong after the appreciation of the yen, people took it for granted that the appreciation of the yen was harmful to neon and benefited from the American Eagle.

However, Neon did not recognize the root cause of the problems facing its own economy, and tried to use monetary means to counter the economic recession caused by the relative decline in competitiveness, and the fiasco was doomed long ago. In fact, if you think about it, you should understand: how can neon workers maintain more than 50 times the income of Chinese workers? Not to mention fifty times, it will be difficult to five times in the future. If neon leaders understand this truth, they should not confront the law of development, artificially stimulate the economy, cause the economy to inflate, and eventually cause a huge bubble and cause serious damage to the economy and society due to the bursting of the bubble.

Many people blame the neon recession on the yen's appreciation, which is misleading. First, economies such as Germany, which appreciated at the same time, did not experience a recession; It's still world-class. Secondly, the appreciation of the yen did not reduce the foreign trade surplus of Neon, but the trade surplus with the United States increased, which shows that the appreciation of the yen did not have a great impact on the export of Neon; The third is that if the yen does not appreciate, it will face a worse situation. The pattern of the American Eagle printing money consumption will cause the yen to face greater upward pressure; Fourth, the purpose of a country's economic development is to improve the living standards of its citizens, and there is no theory that long-term artificial depressing of the exchange rate will be beneficial to the increase of a country's wealth; Fifth, what happens if the yen does not appreciate? Can Japan's economy continue to grow at a high rate? Can the income of neon workers be maintained at more than 50 times that of workers in China, India and other countries for a long time? None of this is clearly possible; Sixth, there is not a single case or theory that proves that a country can overvalue its exchange rate for a long time and cause a recession. The exchange rate is regulated by its own market, and the appreciation of the yen is ultimately the result of a market game.

In fact, there is no inevitable causal relationship between Japan's recession and appreciation. The quality of a country's economy is mainly determined by its competitiveness, and it is said that Japan's economy is good because of the rapid increase in Japan's competitiveness at that time. The yen's appreciation is the result of the market's choice, and the Plaza Accord only brought the appreciation forward by 0.1 seconds. After the Plaza Accord, the currencies of major Western countries appreciated against the dollar, with the exception of Japan, which appreciated the most. None of the other countries had the economic bubble and recession that followed Japan, which shows that there is no necessary causal relationship between the Japanese economic bubble and the appreciation of the yen.

The appreciation of the yen is not a failure of Japan, but the failure to properly distribute this huge wealth to the Japanese people is a failure of Japan, and the unreasonable use of large resources and huge losses to fight the recession is an even greater failure.

However, many people say that neon was in decline for ten years, but in comparison, in the entire 90s of the 20th century, the neon unemployment rate was only about 3%, which is half of the unemployment rate of the American Eagle in the same period.

In the future, the unemployment rate of the American Eagle will be close to 10%, social inequality and poverty will continue to intensify, more than 40 million people will not have health insurance, economic security pressure will increase, the national deficit will increase sharply, and the total foreign debt will exceed 14 trillion US dollars. At the same time, the unemployment rate of Neon was 5.5%, which was one of the most equitable countries in the world, and the Gini coefficient was the second lowest in the world; the universal health insurance, the people's education level was high, and the crime rate was very low; in 2009, the per capita income was more than 90% of that of the United States, and more than 30 times that of China; It has no external debt, foreign exchange reserves of more than $1 trillion, and is the second largest creditor country. How can an island country with scarce natural resources and an area not as large as one of our provinces be able to do this, and this can be called a "lost decade"?

It should be said that Neon is stagnant at a high level. It has been 20 years since the loss of momentum for development.

In the past 20 years, it has lost its manufacturing industry, which is the pillar of the economy, and it has not been able to find a new economic pillar, which is the fundamental reason.

Of course, this does not prevent Japan from being one of the best and most harmonious countries in the world.

This should be regarded as a 'disease of wealth', economic growth must always converge, and the returns are diminishing. It is impossible to maintain high growth for a long time.