Chapter 379: Reform
"Uncle Liu, the laws and systems are different, and even the judges are authentic foreigners. The official language of pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info is different, one is Mandarin, the other is Cantonese. The text is different, one is simplified and the other is traditional. The currencies are different, one is the renminbi, the other is the Hong Kong dollar, and even the weights and measures are different. What do you think will happen when you return? But not that I didn't think of it...... Even with a high degree of autonomy, most of the wealthy businessmen have transferred their household registration or their children's household registration to countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia, and what will happen if the same system is implemented? Therefore, the above has no choice but to take back the sovereignty first, so that the cost of taking it back will be very small. Uncle Liu, don't discuss this issue in the future, at most 20 years, you will see how the people of Xiangjiang treat the mainland. This time, I am not targeting ordinary Xiangjiang people, how can I try to avoid ordinary Xiangjiang people from being affected, and I will have you to cooperate with me when the time comes. ”
Li Mo said.
How to complete the operation after more than four months, Li Mo already has a rough plan.
As for Xiangjiang, Li Mo really doesn't hate regional attacks, and this situation also exists in China, such as Cai Mingyan. Similarly, there are many people in the demon capital, and they also look down on outsiders. But few people in the magic capital have seriously reflected on the reason why there is today's magic capital, one is the superior geographical location of the magic capital, on one side is the sea, there is an excellent port, and on the other side is the Yangtze River. The second is the support of various state resources, but where do these resources come from? They are scavenged from the heads of the common people of other provinces and cities bit by bit and concentrated in the magic capital.
It is not the British slaves who hate it, there are also many people in the country, even if the country is getting better day by day, they still lie under the feet of foreigners and become slaves.
If you don't believe it, go to various bars, even if it's a black girl, it's easier than a Chinese man.
What Li Mo hated was that many Xiangjiang people had a bite of a branch and a mouthful of locusts.
You all think of me as a branch and a locust, why should you be polite to you?
But these are not important, the important thing is that Li Mo needs a lot of money, and what he needs is an excuse to make the upper authorities not angry and rob Xiangjiang.
Li Mo continued to look at the materials, read the materials of East Germany, and looked at the Soviet mineral deposits collected by Liu Xiangzhong, mainly the reserves and production of gold and gem deposits.
Finally, it was the information collected by Liu Xiangzhong on the Soviet side.
Li Mo combined the memories of his previous life and the information collected by Liu Xiangzhong, and finally saw the real reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union, and finally saw a very good opportunity.
There was a key factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that was the ruble.
The exchange rate between the ruble and the dollar remained at 100 dollars to 80 rubles 85 years ago, and at low it was 90 rubles. However, after 86 years, the Soviet government gradually raised the exchange rate, and 100 US dollars could only be exchanged for 70 rubles, to 88 years could only be exchanged for more than 60 rubles, and when it was low, it could only be exchanged for 50 rubles, and the right should be 100 to 60. Now the exchange rate is about 100 to 61 rubles...... In 90, the Soviet government held its neck and adjusted the exchange rate to 100 to 55, and until the dissolution, the official exchange rate hovered between 100 to 60 to 100 to 55.
Li Mo can't remember this.
He could only analyze it based on the information Liu Xiangzhong brought back and some memories of his previous life.
After the resumption of exchanges between China and the Soviet Union, the central bank also held some rubles, including some people in the northeast, and it was impossible to follow the official exchange rate of the Soviet Union, which was a "reasonable exchange rate", but a few years later, as long as those who held the ruble, no matter what kind of reasonable exchange rate they held, they all lost miserably.
On the contrary, India did a clever thing, in the eighties, India successively borrowed more than $10 billion from the Soviet Union, at this time, more than $10 billion was a lot of money, and there were only a few people in the world with a personal wealth of more than $10 billion. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia took over the debts of the Soviet Union, and India, seeing that the ruble had fallen to 3,000 to 1 against the dollar, had an idea, and immediately repaid the ruble like waste paper, and the debt of more than 10 billion US dollars was dealt with by several million US dollars. At that time, India was happy and then retributed......
On the surface, it looks very similar to the renminbi exchange rate, which is still worth 3.7 to one dollar, but since the failure of the price barrier, the real purchasing power of the renminbi has further declined, resulting in the exchange rate on the black market approaching 8 to 1. It seems that the governments of both countries are stiffening their necks and suffering for the sake of face.
There are similarities, and it is true that the current exchange rate of the renminbi is extremely irrational.
But there are many different places.
After Gorbachev implemented market-oriented reforms, the Soviet Union's fiscal deficit rose sharply, reaching an average annual deficit of more than 70 billion rubles in recent years. By '91, the Soviet Union's fiscal deficit reached 205 billion rubles, and the deficit of local governments and member states amounted to 482 billion rubles, accounting for 26% of GDP.
It was not until '91, but this trend began in a big way. The Soviet government did not feel the imminent crisis and, on the contrary, took the initiative to rely on fiscal deficits to achieve financing to solve the long-standing difficulties of lack of funds and limited access to financing.
A modest fiscal deficit is not necessarily a bad thing, and later all countries with rapid economic development had deficits, but the Soviet government did another thing, large-scale and indiscriminate issuance of currency, and from 1971 to 1985, the Soviet currency issuance has maintained a steady growth, with an average annual total of 3.3 billion rubles. In 1986 there was a slight increase, rising to 3.9 billion rubles. In 1987, the amount of money issued approached 6 billion rubles, and in '88 it soared to 18.8 billion rubles. Li Mo already knows this set of data. But it was not over, by 91, the currency issuance amounted to 127.6 billion rubles.
Currency really cannot be issued indiscriminately, if there is less, the currency will shrink, and if there is more, it will inevitably be inflationary.
And that's not the worst......
In '87 and '88, the Soviet Union successively promulgated two laws, allowing enterprises and cooperatives to raise their own funds to establish joint-stock commercial banks and cooperative banks, and at the same time have credit autonomy and give unplanned credit the right not to be restricted by the state credit policy.
Focus...... Otherwise, with the current closed political environment of the Soviet Union, it would be impossible to make a profit under normal circumstances. However, the Soviet government took the initiative to open a big gap for Li Mo and some other "discerning" people.
This was a painful lesson, which is why China has always had strict control over banks, and it was precisely because of the serious mistake of the Soviet Union that it was punished.
Private banks want to make profits, in the case of limited investment projects, they have chosen to lend, only loans, in order to earn interest, by 91, the long-term and short-term loans of commercial banks reached 400 billion rubles. In 91, the total amount of money in the Soviet Union reached 1,451.9 billion rubles, or more than 2.5 trillion dollars according to the official exchange rate, while the real GDP of the Soviet Union was only about 700 billion dollars, which is still an overestimate.
Commercial banks have raised interest rates, and ordinary people and enterprises have also quickly deposited money in banks.
It seems that these commercial banks are revitalizing the economy, but as their proportion and size increase, the control of the Soviet Central Bank is getting weaker and weaker. If you have weak control, you can't control it well.
In desperation, the Soviet government did another thing that was rapidly dying, and through the method of large-scale wage increases, the funds in the savings account were quickly cashed, especially this year, that is, in 89, the wages of some cooperatives increased sixfold in one year. In China's 88 years, the saying that wages were exchanged for price increases, and where did you see it from the Soviet Union...... Fortunately, it was quickly aborted.
In the case of excessive wage growth and a sharp contraction of social production, the gap between the amount of money that the population has the ability to pay and the amount of goods available for consumption is getting wider and wider, so that the stagnation of money is formed, which in 91 almost reached 1.4 trillion rubles.
Gorbachev led his subordinates one after another, including restricting the circulation of large denomination rubles, freezing residents' personal savings accounts, and limiting the total amount of cash withdrawn from these accounts to no more than 500 rubles per person per month, and accelerating the reform of price liberalization.
As a result, several reforms and adjustments have caused the Soviet economy to completely fall into a super vicious circle of currency stagnation and inflation, which is either currency stagnation or inflation. To put it bluntly, these reforms have not been changed to the focus at all, that is, to help industry, especially to help the development of light industry, there is not enough goods, change back and forth, or a large pile of paper money, how can there be no problems?
In particular, the ensuing liberalization of prices dealt a fatal blow to the Soviet Union.
The growing disapproval of the ruble by the population has led to a serious loss of ruble credit. The high level of corruption in the upper echelons of the Soviet Union made the people seriously disappointed with the government. Therefore, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was clear that the CIS countries were miserable, but there were still not many people who missed the former Soviet Union.
The Soviet Union also forcibly apportioned rubles to the member countries, and in addition collected the resources of the member countries from Russia, which led to the centrifugation of the Soviet government by the member states.
Inevitable, fortuitous (819, the negligence of the eight coup leaders of the "Emergency Committee" Yeltsin), led to the collapse of the USSR.
Why didn't Li Mo say it to the above.
In fact, by 89, it was already possible to feedback to the top that the Soviet Union would collapse if it was not done well.
But there are two possibilities, one is that Gorbachev will not implement price liberalization, but will adopt a similar approach to China in the years after 89, and slowly and step by step liberalize prices.
The Soviet Union will not disintegrate, and even if it does, it will be able to survive for more than ten years, and even if a capable person emerges, he will be able to readjust the Soviet Union.
From China's standpoint, do you want the United States to suppress and encircle it across the ocean without lethality, or do you want your northern neighbor to deploy millions of troops at every turn and conduct an exercise on the border?
Second, as long as the emergency committee on 819 took Yeltsin to the next day, the Soviet Union succeeded in bringing these eight people back to the tough path of the former Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union would not disintegrate.
Li Mo cannot interfere in this process, and China cannot interfere in this process.
Through this disintegration, a lot of problems can be seen.
Gorbachev and the chief designer were both engaged in reforms, one leading the Soviet Union to the road to death, and the other leading China to a wide and flat avenue.
China has also made many mistakes, but it has been suspended and adjusted in time. Gorbachev was also adjusting, but the more he adjusted, the worse the USSR became.
Later, there were indeed many ills in the country, but the general direction was good.
Without money, how can a warship make dumplings?
Technology is also catching up step by step, the front said that China can not produce ballpoint refills, and the back special steel is manufactured. In the front, Samsung used OLED screens to disgust Chinese mobile phone companies, and many companies began to develop OLED screens.
Through a comparison, just like now, Li Mo wants to launch a high-tech thing, which can force him to use his strength to eat milk, because the technology of the entire industrial chain is seriously backward, no matter what thing is launched, it will force Li Mo to upgrade the technology of the entire industrial chain.
That is, technically, it has also begun to shift from quantitative to qualitative changes. The bad is the bad, such as Li Mo's disappointment with some leadership practices. A good thing is a good thing, or just beat it to death with a stick?
The second is the loss of wealth.
Some say that the Western world took away more than two trillion dollars of the Soviet Union's state-owned wealth.
The GDP of the Soviet Union was only a few hundred billion dollars, but when the combined value of forests, mines, railways, and houses was calculated, the national wealth was more than 20 trillion dollars.
But most of the wealth evaporated, evaporated into nothingness, and no one was gained.
Most of the remaining wealth was acquired by the powerful in the Soviet Union.
The Western capitalists did not reap much benefit, and it can be said that there were very few of them that premeditated their advance into the Soviet Union.
999 per 1,000 entered Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and 990 per 1,000 entered Russia after Russia underwent shock therapy. The amount of fishing is also limited, with 200 billion US dollars reaching the sky, and some people, such as Soros, have also carried a big heel in Russia.
Third, what the Western world did was to weaken the Soviet Union as much as possible, and second, to tempt Gorbachev to lead the Soviet Union to capitalism and share their values, so as to "turn enemies into friends", and no one thought that the Soviet Union would collapse.
If nothing else, if Yeltsin had been placed under house arrest in 819, the Soviet Union would not have disintegrated.
Even after the disintegration, no one expected Yeltsin to implement a more radical shock therapy, well, the official exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 91 was still six to ten, and the actual black market exchange rate, the two were about the same. Soviet multimillionaires were equated with American multimillionaires in real exchange rate comparison.
In 1994: $1 = 3,300 rubles, multimillionaire = $30,000, in 2000: $1 = 28,000 rubles, multimillionaire = $350, and became poor.
It's all about reform......