Chapter 427: A Judgment That Goes Against Common Sense
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"As for what is coal chemical industry, in a nutshell, it refers to the process of using coal as a raw material and converting coal into gases, liquids and solid fuels and chemicals through chemical processing. (If you like this book, please bookmark biquge.info) According to the world's proven recoverable fossil fuel reserves in 1984, coal accounted for about 74%, while oil was about 12% and natural gas was about 10%, and from a resource point of view, coal would be the main raw material for the potential chemical industry. In the future, the development of coal chemical industry in which fields and at what speed will depend on the progress of coal chemical technology itself and the changes in oil supply and demand and prices. In the short term, the coke used in the metallurgical industry such as iron and steel will still rely on the coking of coal, while coking chemicals such as naphthalene, anthracene and other polycyclic compounds are still difficult to replace organic chemical raw materials in the petrochemical industry. With the development and application of new gasification technologies, coal gasification will continue to be a major aspect of coal chemical industry. The development and research of gasification of coal into syngas, and then the chemical synthesis of a series of organic chemical products through guò carbon and one chemical product is slightly less difficult, and progress can be made in recent years. Extracting liquid fuels from coal, whether by low-temperature dry distillation, direct liquefaction or indirect liquefaction, has to depend on the evaluation of technology and economy," said Chen Kangjie, who had no reservations about Li Chaoren as he knew what he knew.
Chen Kangjie has mentioned coal chemical industry to others before, but this is the first time he has discussed this issue alone.
After listening to a large part of Chen Kangjie's words, Li Chaoren's first thought was why Chen Kangjie's little head contained so many things? Ouyang Zhenhua is not surprised, anyway, since he met Chen Kangjie, he has been surprised enough, he is used to it and numb, in his habitual logic, Chen Kangjie should understand everything.
"According to you, wouldn't it be possible for coal chemical industry to replace petrochemical industry?" , Li Chaoren's heart lit a fire.
"It's not possible in the short term, at least not in twenty or thirty years", Chen Kangjie's firm answer immediately extinguished most of Li Chaoren's fire.
"Why?" , Ouyang Zhenhua, who was listening quietly, was also interested.
"Very simply, the current price of oil is very low, and the technology of petrochemical industry is now very mature, and its requirements are lower than that of coal chemical industry," Chen Kangjie glanced at Ouyang Zhenhua and said with a wry smile.
Why did Chen Kangjie smile bitterly, he was worried that Li Chaoren would be frightened by his two words, but he had to tell the truth.
"Isn't it cost-effective to do coal chemical industry in the short term?" , Ouyang Zhenhua's question is simply on fire, but what he asked is indeed the key.
"Relatively speaking, the main key is in the technology, although the coal chemical industry has been widely used in the second half of the 18th century and the 19th century has been widely used and formed a system, coking to form coke is the earliest coal chemical products, after entering the 20th century, many organic chemicals with agricultural and forestry products as raw materials are changed to coal as raw materials, and coal chemical industry has become an important part of the chemical industry. After the Second World War, the petrochemical industry developed rapidly, and the production of many chemicals shifted from coal as raw materials to oil and natural gas as raw materials, thus weakening the position of coal chemical industry in the chemical industry, so coal chemical industry is not as mature as petrochemical industry in technology", after a pause here, he found that Sir Li listened very carefully, listening and thinking at the same time.
Chen Kangjie took a small sip of the teacup to moisten his throat, and continued, "But we have to see the prospect of coal chemical industry, one thing I can make a judgment is that the price of oil will rise sharply in the next ten years, even the sky-high price of nearly 100 US dollars per barrel, and at that time, if anyone can master a complete set of advanced coal chemical technology and have rich raw coal resources, then they can move towards a new success."
The latter passage said by Chen Kangjie can be regarded as encouragement and encouragement, that is, he has drawn a big cake, and those who believe will be able to really have bread to eat at that time, and those who do not believe will naturally only be able to eat dirt at that time.
"A big rise? Bī nearly $100? The current Brent crude oil is not even $20, is there such a big increase? Li Chaoren heard Chen Kangjie make a prediction about the specific market situation for the first time, and he felt a little incredible, but he still wanted to hear how Chen Kangjie explained, if Chen Kangjie said that he guessed, it was a child's words.
On the contrary, Ouyang Zhenhua no longer doubts Chen Kangjie's economic predictions, and what he is thinking about in his mind is how to get the most benefit from this ** price increase.
"Sir Lee, do you have confidence in the economic development of our country?" Instead of answering Sir Lee's question head-on, Chan Kang-kit used a roundabout strategy to ask him rhetorically, and Chan Kang-kit intended to answer his question with the help of Sir Lee's answer.
"Of course, of course, I am confident, I believe that it will continue to grow rapidly, otherwise I will not increase investment in the mainland", Li Chaoren replied firmly.
Li Chaoren's answer was completely expected by Chen Kangjie, because this is the actual answer. Chen Kangjie remembers that before 97, many wealthy people in Hong Kong sold their properties and businesses and immigrated to Canada, the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries, they were worried about the communist policy of the mainland, but Sir Li just took advantage of this opportunity to carry out Haidilao, and finally after Hong Kong's smooth return, the unchanged remained unchanged, and the economy also got the synchronous development it should have, and housing prices rebounded, and those Hong Kong people who sold their properties earlier to the past found that they were not so good when they went abroad, and they were not familiar with Hong Kong. The development is very difficult, many people have run back, the return of these people, and the housing prices have been pushed to a new height, Sir Li has made a lot of money from it, and he has firmly established his position as the richest man in China.
"Since you have confidence in our country's economic development, it is easy to do, at present we seem to be a net exporter of oil, in fact, China's oil resources are not abundant, the reason for this, is that our economic aggregate is not large enough, and so on, with our economic development, industrialization is deepening, we will change from a net exporter of oil to an importer, the number is not small, the increase of automobiles, the improvement of people's consumption level, all need a large number of petrochemical products. If we look at it from a global perspective, the current peaceful environment will not only make the economies of the developed countries in the West have a certain degree of growth, but also the economies of many third world countries such as South Asia, South America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and West Asia will also usher in a long period of development. This will greatly increase the demand for oil and push up the price of oil. There is another factor, after the outbreak of the Gulf War last year, the OPEC organization will become more closely united, for their own interests and more sustainable development, they will not increase oil production without restrictions, so far, we have not seen these countries have a large-scale construction plan to increase oil production, as long as there is a contradiction between supply and demand, prices will inevitably soar", Chen Kangjie analyzed the possibility of oil prices rising sharply from various factors at home and abroad.
Li Chaoren looked at Chen Kangjie in a daze, it was really incredible, obviously Chen Kangjie's rhetorical analysis had convinced him that the qiē of releasing Buddha was about to be displayed in front of him.
"Then what do you think of polar bears, will the United States and other Western countries allow polar bears to increase their oil wealth and restore the glory of the former Soviet Union?" , but then he thought of an interesting question.
As soon as Li Chaoren's interesting question was asked, Chen Kangjie immediately knew where the core was, Ouyang Zhenhua slowed down by half a beat, and thought about it for half a minute before grasping the essence of the problem.
"Yes, why oil prices were not high during the Soviet era, this is a suppressive factor, we know that the world's two largest oil markets are in the United Kingdom and the United States, in other words, oil prices are controlled by them to a certain extent. The former Soviet Union was a large country with rich oil reserves, and in order to prevent the Soviet Union from using this wealth to enhance its national strength, the West naturally wanted to suppress oil prices, which was also for their own sake. Now the great Western powers, represented by the United States, are undergoing economic transformation, and manufacturing will be replaced by a new economy that requires less energy. Since the third and fourth Middle East wars, the large oil companies of Western countries have gone all out to lay out the layout in the world's main oil-producing areas, and the layout of giants such as Shell, Mobil, and Exxon has been almost completed after twenty or thirty years, which is another important reason why oil prices will rise. On the surface, the rise in oil prices can allow polar bears to gain a lot of wealth, in fact, we should also see that polar bears' oil production facilities are very backward, which limits their production capacity, in fact, it is due to geopolitical reasons, it is difficult to diversify his oil exports, and besides, what the West needs is a weak Russia, and does not need a húnluàn Russia, so it is necessary to ensure that he has a certain source of stable income. If we look at the problem from a longer-term perspective, we should also see that an appropriate increase in oil prices is not necessarily a good thing for polar bears", originally discussing coal, but Chen Kangjie has a lot of experience to explain this coal competing product.
"Jie Shao, I don't understand, why is the price increase not necessarily a good thing for Russia?" , Ouyang Zhenhua listened too devotedly, so even the title was naturally brought out.
On this question asked by Ouyang Zhenhua, Li Chaoren actually didn't quite understand, it stands to reason that this should be a good thing, if you can quickly increase your wealth, how can it not be good for Russia? It's counterintuitive.
Chen Kangjie was not busy answering this question, after saying so much, he was still a little dry, Chen Kangjie smiled and filled his teacup with a cup of warm tea.
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