In the September season, the beginning of the school season, the Xiao family of three is in school, it is time to go to school, and it is time to go to work. Pen fun and pavilion www.biquge.info

Hua Junyao touched her pulse, opened her eyes in disbelief, carefully tasted the pulse, pressed the surprise in her heart, and waited for the child's father to come back and tell him the good news.

"Jingle bell ......" The phone rang, and Hua Junyao, who was sitting at the desk, picked up the receiver with her long arms and said, "Hey! Hello, I'm Hua Junyao. ”

"Haha......" There was a ghostly crazy laugh on the phone.

"Hey, hey!" Hua Junyao shouted.

"Yaoyao, it's me." Hua Guoqing, who finally stopped smiling, said.

"What's the matter? So happy. Hua Junyao rubbed her chin and said.

"People say that a pregnant woman is stupid for three years, but you don't know that yesterday the finance ministers of the five countries signed the Plaza Agreement at the Plaza Hotel in New York. The agreement stipulates that the yen and the mark should appreciate sharply in order to recover the overvalued dollar. After the signing of the "Plaza Accord", the five countries jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market, and each country began to sell the dollar, which then formed a selling frenzy of market investors, resulting in a continuous sharp depreciation of the dollar and the appreciation of the yen. Hua Guoqing said happily, "We have made a lot of money, not to mention the stock market and real estate, just in the foreign exchange market, haha...... The signing of the agreement is tantamount to giving international capital investment in Neon's stock market and housing market a sure insurance policy. Dancing excitedly.

In 1985, Japan overtook the United States as the world's largest creditor, and Japanese-made products flooded the world. The pace of frenzied expansion of Japanese capital has caused the Americans to exclaim, "Japan will occupy the United States peacefully!" ”

Many large manufacturing enterprises and congressmen in the United States began to sit still, and they lobbied the US government one after another, strongly urging the Reagan administration at that time to intervene in the foreign exchange market and depreciate the dollar in order to save the increasingly depressed US manufacturing industry. Many economists have also joined the lobby to lobby the government to change its stance on a strong dollar.

Hua Junyao suddenly realized that she was really pregnant and stupid for three years, but she resolutely would not admit it, "Domestic information is lagging behind." ”

September 22nd. It is a common practice for governments to choose a Sunday to announce major news, as financial markets are closed, giving the market plenty of time to react. September 23 is the autumn equinox, a neon holiday, and Europe and the United States do not rest. So the market reacts extremely quickly.

"Okay, you're always right." Hua Guoqing smiled happily, "We will increase our investment in the neon policy." ”

"Uh-huh!" Hua Junyao snorted lightly, "As for being so happy?" ”

"Shouldn't I be happy that Neon is unlucky!" Hua Guoqing said with a smile, "Being jointly encircled and suppressed by others, tsk...... It's so sour. ”

"You're probably inclined to conspiracy theories too!" Hua Junyao rubbed her chin and said, "Although conspiracy theories provide an easy-to-understand explanation, they are often far from the truth. People often talk about conspiracy and are willing to believe it. ”

The reason why the Plaza Accord was signed, conspiracy theories often say this: after the fifties and sixties, the economies of Japan and Germany recovered strongly, and various industries frantically interfered with American companies, and in terms of exchange rates, they each implemented a semi-fixed exchange rate system, so that their own currencies maintained a relatively low price against the US dollar to maintain their trade advantages with the United States, and after the seventies, American companies were already completely defensive against German and Japanese companies, and in the late seventies and early eighties, because of the impact of the second oil crisis and the Reagan reforms, The U.S. dollar has risen relatively sharply, once approaching 300 yen per dollar, and the U.S. economy is even more overwhelmed.

At this time, the United States felt that it was too much of a loss, so it summoned these major countries to discuss: I am fighting the Soviet Union in order to protect a few of you, and it is not kind to me that you are doing this economically. For the sake of the capitalist camp, and for your own sake, you have to normalize the exchange rate and not make my domestic economy and employment so uncomfortable. So there is a square agreement for countries to return their currencies to normal.

Makes sense, but not absolutely.

"Admittedly, it is clear that Neon has always been an economic giant and a political dwarf. Since he is politically attached to the American Eagle, he still has to listen to the words of the American Eagle, so he can't be considered completely with rational thinking. Hua Guoqing changed his words and said, "Of course, the neon people took the initiative at that time, and later the meeting of the finance ministers of the five countries reached an agreement, and none of us are stupid, on the contrary, they are still very shrewd, just take what they need." From the perspective of financial markets, the exchange rate of the Deutsche Mark has also risen rapidly.

The reality is that the exchange rate was really out of balance at that time, and everyone realized it and wanted to take a way; And the exchange rate increase is not without its benefits to Neon. ”

Hua Junyao said slowly, "The most important thing in the exchange rate is balance, balance is fundamental, appreciation and depreciation are only appearances, and on the basis of maintaining balance, whether appreciation or depreciation is beneficial to a country." The biggest impact of exchange rate changes is not the export and import of products, but the flow of capital and the corresponding wealth effect. Be in the center of the storm and look closely, and you'll learn a lot. ”

In today's international currency markets, no one should really believe that the government has the ability to intervene in the international currency market

Because the government's resources are very limited, it is incapable of dealing with market prices – one of the main reasons why the world's major industrial countries, led by the United States, have justified their inaction in the wake of the economic crisis in Southeast Asia.

Even now, the funds that the five governments participating in the Plaza Accord can mobilize to carry out public operations are extremely limited compared to the huge turnover in the international currency market, and they will be swallowed up by the market in the blink of an eye. To use the classic metaphor of Samuelson, the great economist, just as "the greatest king of mankind is powerless to change the currents of the sea", governments cannot intervene in the international currency market as they please.

Moreover, the various policies promised by the five participating countries in the "Plaza Accord," especially those measures linked to domestic financial and fiscal policies, have not been substantively implemented and implemented.

In fact, for a long time after the Plaza Accord, Japan's trade surplus with the United States increased sharply rather than decreased. The appreciation of the yen has not opened up a broad Japanese market for American goods, because Japanese products are structurally different from those of the United States, and there is no price competition. Even in the most tragic era of the Japanese economy after the collapse of the bubble economy, there is no evidence that Japanese products, whether they are electrical appliances, automobiles, or intermediate machinery products, have lost their international competitiveness. Therefore, the Plaza Accord was a complete failure in terms of the goal of reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Japan.

And after the deal, a lot of hot money poured into the neon market, pushing up the stock market and real estate, which caused the "lost decade".

"Uh-huh!" Hua Guoqing nodded frequently, "I've been taught." ”