158 Sherlock Holmes (Part I)

What is a popular model? Can a popular model be predicted and created? Can the life cycle of a product be accurately predicted? Is advertising and marketing an empirical science or a theoretical science? Is that kind of mystical consumer psychological analysis a theory to guide practice, or is it a law that is summed up from the phenomenon with the benefit of hindsight?

Any product operation wants to get answers to these questions, but these questions are destined to have no standard answers. β€”β€”If the operation of the world can really be completely β–‘β–‘ according to the consumer psychology, then there will be no unsalable goods, and every piece of clothing will be a hit. If you want to let the gold medal marketing of China's fashion industry summarize the phenomenon of popular styles, probably after a few cups of strong tea and a series of frowning, tacit eye exchanges, people will get a few vague 'um......', and a meaningful summary: 'Small explosions depend on people, big explosions, then it depends on the sky.'" ’

Yes, what style can explode, what brand can explode, to what extent, no one can assert, sometimes, even the creators of big explosive products, buyers, and even the market itself, will not realize that they are participating in a wave of surging waves, and they will only be slow to realize that this brand, this dress, is the latest general trend.

"This year's new clothes, it seems that the sales are unexpectedly good, compared with previous years, the speed of selling out seems to be much worse. "For peripheral buyers like Qiqi, they don't notice the change in sales at all, and they don't even have much change in public awareness - since more than half a year ago, [rhyme], Qiao Yun, and Qin Wei have been frequently mentioned in the three-dimensional world, and they haven't increased their topic recently because of this show, so it doesn't look like sales will increase dramatically, in fact, if it weren't for ' Brother-in-law's fans are loyal, and her prediction of sales will be more pessimistic, because, although this will not affect her determination to buy, Kiki has to admit that she is ...... this show I really didn't feel it at all, and I could even say that I had a slight disgust.

This disgust is not for brands and clothes, but I don't like the atmosphere of the whole show, in Qin Wei's fan base and 'brother and sister-in-law fans', most people feel similar to her, either they can't understand it at all, they feel that it is black and inexplicable, or they go further, and they feel that this atmosphere makes people hair all over their bodies, and they can't even watch the whole show, and they will close it after seeing half of it.

"But the everyday clothes look pretty good. At the end of the big show, the fan group discussed it, and the daily model was still recognized, and many people were optimistic, "Didn't there be no show last year, and it sold super well even by live broadcast, even if the first wave didn't sell well, maybe it wouldn't be unsalable if it was done live-"

This is a prediction based on everyone's feelings: unsalable. But it was overturned half an hour later, and the sales speed of the style is still similar to that of the big show in March last year, and it is the same as when there was no show in September last year, the new style is not on the shelves for more than ten minutes, and several more basic styles, such as striped suits or something, will be sold out in a few minutes, and there are even one or two super popular styles, which can be said to be a spike, and even the option of 'appointment to buy' has been grayed out, even if you want to make an appointment, you can only wait until the next time to put it on the shelves.

On the shelves so many times, some of the unspoken shopping rules of [Yun] have also been summarized by customers: generally speaking, the first time on the shelves is about 100-150 pieces, and then about 250-300 pieces will be released every week, and you can make an appointment until six weeks later, and when the shares of six weeks are sold out, it will be completely off the shelves, that is, the longest waiting period is six weeks. Wait until the seventh week to start a cycle, but this time, the weekly loading volume will be adjusted to about 300-500 pieces, which is also because the production cycle of a piece of clothing is about six weeks, and it will take six weeks for the brand to produce it after deciding the follow-up order volume according to the sales volume of the day. If it's not a very long-selling and best-selling basic model, it will probably maintain a relatively abundant stock after the third release - it is also close to the end of the season at that time, and it will be removed from the shelves after the third six weeks, and it will not be sold.

Therefore, the first time it was put on the shelves, it didn't give them the feeling of selling - the first time it was on the shelves, it was less than 200 pieces, and the total appointment was about 2000 pieces, and Taobao's explosive models were seen for thousands of seconds, and they didn't think it was so explosive, and the fan base was discussing the issue of whether to organize sales when they were on the shelves for the second and third time, after all, the sales group formed by everyone in the last season was useless - they couldn't grab it, and the so-called shameful knife was difficult to get into the sheath, and it felt very meaningless if you didn't rush it once. However, there are certain problems in continuing to organize: after all, it has been a long time, many fans haven't seen Qin Wei for too long, and they began to retreat, embarrassed to say that they can't eat, they are not so fanatical, and find some other reasons for themselves, Qin Wei has not appeared in public with Qiao Yun for a long time, although my sister-in-law said that last night, everyone thinks that the person who called is my brother, but after all, I am not completely sure that it is not, if they have quietly broken up, what the group is doing now will be completely meaningless.

They have a little bit of a feeling about sales, from the second and third shelves are still empty, like Qiqi, a little girl who lives in a big city, also got a hint of inspiration from life - suddenly, the three-dimensional world also began to be full of discussions about [rhyme], the sisters and aunts who were gossiping with her before, just casually put on clothes from [rhyme], as if this is the most normal thing, and when the copycat clothes about [rhyme] on Taobao are easily sold for 5,000, When it was 10,000 or 15,000, they vaguely had this feeling: The sales of [Rhyme] didn't seem to be affected by this show at all, did it improve a small step compared to before?

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"How much did they sell?"

A little more than the average customer knows, is the clothing industry insiders - but they can only rely on clues to guess, and the previous model is different, [rhyme] is not strong dependence on agents, just to ensure that a city has one or two high-V customers, not relying on large-scale opening counters and expansion, so from the common large agent mouth to gossip, it is difficult, the only thing that can be observed is only the trend of [rhyme] cooperative manufacturers. Is overtime work frequent? Is overtime frequent or not? Is there any recruitment to buy machinery? Will orders be given to small manufacturers with close relationships?

"It's supposed to be crazy this year. "People with a heart such as [Shengge] Mr. Ma, I feel that it is obvious that every time he comes to N City to grasp production, he will find an opportunity to have a meal with Brother Hong, the largest manufacturer of [Yun], but I haven't seen him this year. Brother Hong is really busy and dizzy, the whole factory is now completely not taking other orders, that is, it is running in three shifts, so it is not enough, and asked the small factory to borrow skilled workers, and the workers will not be released after entering the factory, and all the food and drink are all covered in the factory, so they are asked to save all their time and use all their energy to work.

As for Chen's, another major downstream manufacturer of [rhyme], Chen Indigo can't dig it, and Chen's can't dig either, Mr. Ma has never been in the past, just watching from the sidelines - they are also much busier than before, however, this reference is not too significant, after all, Chen's has been in a dizzying expansion since [rhyme], whether it is because of the new model is busy with spanking eggs, this is really hard to say.

"Sales are definitely a big step up from before. "This is Mr. Ma's judgment," which also shows that the previous sales of [Yun] must have been fraudulent, this time, the order volume has increased so much, but it is not more difficult to buy on the Internet than before, and it is not alarming, that is, because the real sales have squeezed out the original moisture." ”

From the launch of the official website to the present, the first time [Yun] is on the shelves must be a few hours, dozens of minutes, or even a few minutes to be taken off the shelves, which has almost become a natural common sense - how can there be so many rich people? Why do they love to buy [Yun] so much? These questions have long been confused by the public, and they have already calmed down about it, and they don't think too much about it. Including Qiqi, these customers, although they were surprised by the speed of the short sale, but after thinking about it, they were relieved, there may really be many customers who are very loyal, they have always been brainless to buy, buy, buy, and grab orders has become an instinct, and even this show can't scare them away. will even laugh at those who doubt: in the soaring housing prices, the value of families in first-tier cities has doubled, and the wealthy receivers have surfaced one by one, the horizon is still a little small as before, China's rich people are much more than everyone imagined, it is already a consensus, millions of houses, one staircase and one staircase have been bought, what is the value of thousands of clothes?

But for practitioners, this kind of 'common sense' is fundamentally anti-perceptual, so many SKUs, each piece can sell tens of millions of pieces, in terms of luxury goods, it is already a jaw-dropping sales, generally speaking, first-line luxury bags and shoes can only reach this number, it also takes a period of accumulation, and the brand's clothing sales will definitely not reach this number, and it will be cut several times or even more than ten times, after all, the simplest point, bags and shoes can be used for a quarter, and clothes can be worn for a quarter?

Every time the number of launches, consumers will estimate, competitors are also analyzing, Ma has always suspected that it is sales fraud, hunger marketing, but I am not sure - [rhyme] After all, she is the first person to achieve large-scale domestic luxury goods, and her situation is something that no one can assert, maybe people can sell so much?

Now, one of his doubts seems to have been answered - maybe this year, Yun really sold so many sales, but in previous years, there was absolutely none, it is impossible for every SKU to be empty in seconds, and their second time is completely a strategy that is matched with see and buy, that is, hunger marketing!

"Uh...... But maybe the current order volume has soared, and it is not necessarily that the domestic sales have squeezed out the water - maybe the domestic sales have no water in the first place, and Brother Hong is suddenly busy because the water from overseas has been injected in, which has raised the level of the entire pool?"

- After all, he is not in the game, outsiders come to analyze, they are all in the fog, and a cautious prompt from his hand knocked Mr. Ma's determination back to the prototype, he muttered and did not speak, and only said blankly for a while, "I can't control foreign countries...... But is it possible that domestic sales have always remained stable......? Hasn't it changed?"

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Consumers, friends, such a big market, such a new type of sales method, even market research companies may be difficult to accurately predict the sales of [rhyme] in the new season, at most there is only a vague sense of the ups and downs, and there is probably only [rhyme] in the whole of China The company's internal technical personnel in charge of sales, and a few high-level executives can know how exaggerated the sales of this season are, and even they don't know what the reason for such a rise is, and they are completely in a state of confusion, Qiao Yun even thought that he was mistaken, or this was a ploy of a friend, and repeatedly asked for a re-examination, and after making sure that there was no cat, he also held a closed-door meeting for this purpose.

"So, after three or four weeks, now our sales should be undoubted, indeed...... That's eight times what it was in the same period last year. Even now, Qiao Yun didn't have a sense of reality when she said this number, she coughed lightly, "I can tell you that there is really no moisture in this sales, and it has nothing to do with our marketing strategy." In fact, this year's hunger marketing strategy has been suspended since the night of the show, and here it is eight times more inclusive of explosive growth from overseas, and local ......"

"There is also explosive growth in the local area. She was entangled for a while, and couldn't find an adjective, Chen Indigo picked up and finished it for her - at this time, she could see the quality of the big boss, and he was not ecstatic when such sales rushed over, but his attitude was more serious than before. "Sales were several times higher than the same period last year, and suddenly there was such an increase in all aspects when our publicity and marketing strategy had not changed in the slightest. This is actually a serious challenge for us and a direct proof that the quality of our work is not high. β€”β€”The market has such an improvement, which is enough to show that the brand itself does have potential, but we have not found the right way to tap it. And if we have not been able to grasp the G point of the market and find the law of this, then such a sales miracle cannot continue forever, and there may even be a backlash decline, affecting the rhythm of the healthy development of the brand. ”

He put his hands on the bridge, leaned on his chin, his eyes slid over Qiao Yun and Fu Zhan's faces, circled around the executives, and in Qiao Yun's nod of approval, he said solemnly, "So, to say that today's will be about the life and death of [Yun], I personally think it is not an exaggeration, everyone should give full play to experience, combine data, and put forward an investigation idea, in the future, we must be like Sherlock Holmes, do not let go of a trace of detail, do our best to solve this mystery, and find the root cause behind the explosion of [Yun] this season......" 166 Reading Network