"Nobody knows when the game is over, so what you said about 'one minute before the end' doesn't hold up from the start. "www.biquge.info In fact, the decision to run and stay where you are is usually only made at the very beginning. If you wait for a while, it's hard to choose to run again. There is an interesting problem in logic. ”

Riko's eyes sparkle with beauty.

"A professor told their students that there was an exam on a certain day next week, but it would be a surprise on which day the exam would be held. The professor's students were panicked, and everyone began to speculate about when the exams would be. Since there are only five days of classes next week (Monday to Friday), you can analyze the probability of taking the exam on each day. First of all, to put it simply, it is impossible for the exam to be held on a Friday. This is not a surprise because on Friday morning students know that exams cannot be held Monday through Thursday (because they have already flipped through the calendar from Monday to Thursday), so they must be held on Friday. ”

I nodded. I hadn't thought of thinking in this way before, but after listening to Riko's analysis, I felt that she made a lot of sense. If you spend Monday and Thursday so safely, even the stupidest student will know that there will be an exam on Friday. But this can't be called a surprise at all.

"But if the exam can't be held on Friday, then for the same reason, it can't be held on Thursday either."

"Huh? Why? ”

"Because if the exam is held on a Thursday, then the student knows on Thursday morning that the exam cannot be held from Monday to Wednesday, so they know that the exam will definitely be held on Thursday or Friday. But according to the previous reasoning-"

According to previous reasoning, the exam could not have been held on a Friday. So the exam is bound to be held on Thursday. But if students know on Thursday morning that there will be exams today, then this can't be called a surprise at all. Therefore, it is not possible for the exam to be held on a Thursday either.

However, if this reasoning is followed, then the exam cannot be held on Wednesday.

Because if it is held on a Wednesday, then the student knows on Wednesday morning that the exam cannot be held from Monday to Tuesday, so they know that the exam will definitely be held on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. However, according to the previous reasoning, Thursday and Friday are not possible, so the exam must be held on Wednesday. But if students find out about this on Wednesday morning, then it can't be called a surprise at all. So Wednesday doesn't work either. Not on Tuesday, but on Monday......

Looking at my distressed expression, Riko smiled and patted me on the shoulder.

"Do you think it's impossible to hold an exam on any given day?"

"That's right." I nodded, "I think the teacher said something impossible. It is not possible to be 'accidental' at the same time as the exam. So what exactly is the ending of this story, and what day is the exam? ”

"It doesn't matter which day the exam is. After careful analysis, the students felt that it was impossible to be 'accidental' on any given day. They don't think they will take the exam on any day. So no matter which day the professor schedules the exam, the students will feel that it is against their logical reasoning, so it is an 'accident'. ”

"Wait, Riko-san, what kind of ending is this!"

My heart is full of mixed feelings. How to say, sometimes not a pigeon is also a pigeon. When a person often releases your pigeons, but that day he arrives as promised, you feel an inexplicable sadness in your heart. This kind of dove that is not a pigeon can't help but give people an elegy for the soul.

All in all, this strange contradiction still can't let me go.

"A lot of people have the same problem, which is actually a noted paradox in logic. It is commonly known as the surprise examination paradox (surpriseexaminationparadox), also known as the hangmanparadox (hangmanparadox), one of the cognitive paradoxes in the strict sense. Cognition here refers to the vague definition of some basic cognitive concepts. In this example, for example, the definition of surprise is very vague. In general, the surprise is interpreted as unexpected, cannotbededucedinadvanced, or unknowing. All three different translations will give different interpretations of this paradox. But in fact, the exam paradox is a little more complicated, it is different from traditional logic, because it is tense. ”

"Tense?"

"That's right. You see, are you assuming something in the process of reasoning? Your reasoning involves the inversion that if the exam is held on a Wednesday, then the students will feel how they will feel on Wednesday morning. Then this means that you clearly feel that Wednesday's students are different from Friday's students, and that Friday's students inherit Wednesday's status. There is time and voice in these overthrows. Past tense, future tense, so-and-so on Wednesday, so-and-so on Friday. Adding time to a proposition is equivalent to adding an extra dimension. A proposition without time can be 'the sun rises'. When the tense is added, it becomes 'the sun has risen', 'the sun is constantly angry', 'the sun will rise', 'the sun has been rising until now', and so on. In fact, it contains four operators: strong/weak, future/past, for example: there were dinosaurs in the past, there has always been a universe in the past and now, the future will exist for 3019 years, and the sun will rise again and again in the future. ”

I couldn't help but nod my head, and I remembered the various tenses in it when I was learning English. Come to think of it, I really haven't seen a description of time in logical propositions. The math teacher only taught simple declarative sentences such as "A-kun is a student of the mathematics department" and "There are seven continents in the world".

In fact, there is no concept of tense in classical logic. This was noticed at the end of the ancient Greeks, but their arguments were limited to the simple discussion that the sun would rise. It was only after World War II that there was more research on this subject, and its own axiomatic system was established. In this problem, only the description of temporal logic can clearly explain the crux of the problem. Going back to where we are now, let's say that the point in time we are at is a. The paradox is that we can find a suitable time to start running, let's say a time that allows us to run in the first half of the run without having to struggle very hard. Suppose it's point B, but when we get from point A to point B, everyone hasn't run yet, and everything has returned to the original state. Because we can find a suitable time point to start from A to the end of the run, then we can also find another suitable time point from B to the end, C, which is between B and the end. By the time we get to point C, we can still find D......"

I understand what Riko means. Presumably, a person with procrastination thinks it's good to start work one hour before the deadline, but when it comes to the end of the hour, he thinks it's okay to start work half an hour before the end. When there was only half an hour left, he decided that it would be okay to delay another fifteen minutes.

"Wait, do you want to push it down forever like an exam paradox?"

"Maybe. In this way, we keep looking for a point column of A, B, C, and D, and we should eventually converge to the end point, so that we know that in the end, no one really starts to run forward. ”

"But maybe everyone has a bottom line in their hearts, such as leaving at least one minute to run." I thought about it for a moment and retorted, "Even the most serious procrastinators know that they can't finish their homework in just ten seconds, and they can't even finish copying answers." ”

"But we don't know when it's going to end." Riko explains, "Everyone doesn't know when it's going to end, so whether or not people will set off and run forward depends on their emotions. At this point, logic doesn't work, and everyone can't maintain their sanity. The longer the time drags on, the more the physical person will feel the loss, and the doctor who is destined to not win will feel that it is best to delay until the end of the trial. ”

I took off the prescription glasses from the bridge of my nose and rubbed my forehead carefully. Riko was so brain-burning that it took me a lot of effort to keep up with her train of thought.

"I still think that people with good physical strength will start running first, then those who are not so good at physical strength, and so on."

"You're half right, I don't think the specific description is accurate." Riko said, "It shouldn't be 'those who have good physical strength run first', 'those who are confident in their physical strength should run first'. ”

Indeed, my physical strength is by no means good. But I'm probably more confident about it than a doctor and a girl with glasses.

"But most of the time the two statements are the same."

"It's a big difference." Riko shook her head, "Because everyone is not confident in themselves!" ”

Riko's words made me feel empowered. That's right, self-confidence. This is the crux of the whole issue. If we had all seen a table beforehand that ranked everyone's physical strength and athleticism, then there would be nowhere for the doctor's ploy. The person who ranks first in physical strength will be the first to start, and the second person will start if he sees the first person running. The top 50 are all gearing up, and the bottom 50 will try to exploit bugs.

However, no one knows their position before they start.

Even if you feel like you're in the top 40 percent, no one is sure of that. When faced with critical choices, people generally doubt themselves. Surveys have shown that people tend to score lower than their actual scores after major exams. As a result, more than 50 percent of people will not have confidence in themselves and will choose to follow the doctor to use bugs to decide their fate.

In fact, the doctor's plan was so successful that four out of five people actually had no confidence in themselves, and they all chose to stay. It's a game where people look at each other's faces to see if they're panicking or if they're not confident in themselves. In a game, everyone's decisions need to change based on the decisions of others. The doctor has already established a lot of prestige for himself before this, so that everyone will subconsciously follow the doctor's decision when they are caught in a dilemma.

"So, has the doctor already won?" I couldn't help but mumble to myself.

At the very beginning of the game, the Medic has already won. He managed to force more than half of them to stay with him at the starting line – the best he could have achieved in his current situation. I can't help but think it's a little funny, but in the end, it's like in real life, too? Everywhere there are people who are born with a golden spoon in their mouths. For example, the man in black, no matter how tyrannical things he did, he could easily win just by relying on his extraordinary physical strength. The Doctor's credibility was crucial to his victory, as he succeeded in quelling the riots caused by the Man in Black and leading the group through the rules. Sure enough, victory is reserved for those who are prepared. It's normal for doctors to be prepared before they know the rules, and it's normal to be so relaxed. The man in black was right, the trial had already begun.

ps：

Happy Holidays everyone!

I've had plenty of time lately, so I'll try to write as much as I can. You may be able to see that the basic brain hole in this volume is Shijiro Tsuchihashi. Specifically, his "Beyond the Gate" + "Escape from Paradise Island" + "Battle Royale Arena". I also borrowed from another Akatsuki Driving Arrow's "My Meaning of Survival", mainly from the setting of monsters. I'm sure you've all heard of the daimyo outside of the title.,I think it's cool to look at.,It's really depressing to write it.。 After this trial is written, I'm going to write about the great sword. Greatsword is currently about 45% progress, and I'm trying to finish it slowly. Recently, I've watched some Greatsword fandom again, and I seem to have found some feeling again.

I've compiled some of the books I've read a long time ago. If you are interested, you can take a look: [url=/booklist/58256caa394961d30745fcaa]Booklist[/url]

In addition, we welcome your valuable book reviews. Although I know that even if I did, you wouldn't have written a book review. Is there really "you"?