"I think that the final discourse of this year's politics and economics will also require us to analyze the events that may have had the most far-reaching impact that year. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 ｉｎfo”

In one villa, fifteen or sixteen young men were sitting in the living room, men and women, all dressed in bright clothes, holding notebooks, listening to the chatter of a plainly dressed young man standing in the middle.

The young man standing in the middle had closed his book in his hand: "And I think that the most far-reaching event of this year for world politics and economy was the collapse of the Lehman Bank. ”

A young man on his right interrupted him: "Classmate Zhuang." Personally, I think it should be the Dragon scam. ”

Hearing his questioning, Classmate Zhuang turned to face the young man head-on and said, "What Classmate Ni said seems to be very right. The Dragon scam has indeed caused economic turmoil throughout the world, with great political and economic implications. But its impact on world politics is not as far-reaching as the knock-on effects of the collapse of the Lyman Brothers bank. ”

Another young man who seemed to be casually writing down a few words in his notebook occasionally heard him say that, raised his eyes and asked, "What did Classmate Zhuang say?" ”

"After the Long scam was completely exposed early last month, hundreds of businesses and millions of people around the world suffered losses, and the direct economic losses amounted to more than 73 billion. And many countries have been strained because of this incident. The impact is enormous. However, the Long's scam only exposed the regulatory loopholes in the speculative market, and as long as this loophole is filled, it will no longer have an impact on the economy in the future, and the impact on politics will be quickly eliminated. That's why I say that the political and economic impact of this event on the world is not far-reaching. ”

"The collapse of the Lyman Bank is significantly less impactful than the former."

Classmate Zhuang held up a finger and said, "What Classmate Cui said is the same as most ordinary people's opinions. But it's not. The real ripple effects of the collapse of Lyman Bank have not yet been fully exposed. Today, the collapse of Lyman Bank has ostensibly cost depositors. But what many people don't notice is that Lehman Bank was engaged in a very risky business before it collapsed - subprime credit lending. This is also known as subprime mortgages. Essentially, it's a high-stakes promotion. Real estate developers and financial institutions provide mortgage loans to people with low credit ratings, or low incomes who have little ability to repay, in order to promote the prosperity of real estate. Banks are required to guarantee these investments. Once the bank fails, the entire subprime chain will be broken. If this link is broken, then the entire subprime mortgage chain will collapse. ”

"But that doesn't happen, does it?" Cui did not agree with Zhuang's words.

Zhuang raised a second finger and said, "This is the second point I want to make: I noticed a recent financial report about Lehman Bank before its bankruptcy. The amount of collateral assumed in their subprime mortgage business has exceeded their bank assets by more than 1.5 times, amounting to $160 billion. If there are no problems, these guarantees can generate a lot of income for the pending receipts of the Lehman Bank. But the problem was that when those debts turned into bad debts, the Lehman brothers went out of business. ”

"So, what's going on?" Zhuang said with a smile. "I don't know if you have noticed that the transaction volume of the real estate market in the United States has shrunk by more than 15% in the past six months, and there have been more than 10,000 cases of repossession of mortgages that cannot be repaid. Real estate installment is the main target of subprime mortgage business. What's more, the world is now raising interest rates because of inflation. The U.S. mortgage rate has raised interest rates 16 times in a year and a half, and mortgage rates are now as high as 7.6%, which has overwhelmed homebuyers. ”

After a pause, he continued: "As things stand, the unemployment rate in the United States remains high, with the data released in December last year showing a high unemployment rate of 8.6%, and it is worth noting that the average American is almost not in the habit of saving money. Lyman Bank had to declare bankruptcy precisely because these people were unable to repay their mortgages and incurred a large amount of bad debts. I believe this is just the beginning, as the impact of the collapse of the nation's fourth-largest insurance bank was temporarily suppressed because of the collapse of Lyman Bank, where a large number of subprime mortgages were passed on to other banks. But we have to see that in the United States, subprime mortgages have accounted for 48% of the entire real estate market last year. Personal borrowing is even more than 60%, and once the unemployment rate reaches a critical point, the entire banking industry in the United States will be overwhelmed by non-performing assets. ”

He seemed a little out of breath, took a deep breath, and then concluded: "I personally think that the collapse of Lyman Bank is a fuse, but I don't know how long this fuse can burn." ”

In fact, he felt that this event was very similar to an economic event that had occurred in his previous world. After his analysis, he believes that the economy of the whole world has one foot on the edge of the cliff, unless someone has the ability to turn his hands into clouds and rain with his hands, otherwise it will definitely be an economic crisis. As for when this crisis will erupt, it will depend on how long those banks can hold on. But he knows that real economists can certainly see the risk.

Cui put down the pen, his eyes flashed with light, and asked, "You mean that the shrinking transaction volume of the real estate market will cause the credit bankruptcy of the subprime mortgage?" ”

Mr. Zhuang nodded and said, "I do have such an opinion, as for why, it is not the scope of this basic business." ”

Having experienced this business four times, Cui knows Zhuang's rules. Zhuang's rule is to only point out the key points of the exam, but find or summarize the answers by yourself. If you want to know the answer to the question or the key points of the answer, you will need to charge an additional fee. And each person only answers one, and each question only answers one person.

Yes, you don't look at them as if they are talking about the general trend of the country, in fact they are just trying to cope with the upcoming exams.

Cheonhai University is one of the best private universities in the world, and the final exam questions are very large and the range of test centers is very wide. There are also more subjects than national universities, and the lecturers are not the ones who write the questions, and many of the questions are not even teachers from Tianhai University. The examiner refers to the textbook to make the question at random, so it is not easy to do well in the exam.

In addition to the semester before graduation, students at Tenkai University are required to take more than 35 subjects and at least 25 required courses per semester. Therefore, at least 80% of students will fail the course every year.

But this Zhuang student has never failed the exam in the past three years, although it can't be called a miracle, but the miracle is that he majored in one major and minored in two, and when others were desperately reviewing before the exam, he was busy making money. And the grades were still able to maintain the degree where the school allowed him to minor in two majors.

For students who minor in two majors, the school may allow the student not to attend classes, but require that the written score of each compulsory course must be at least 105 points at the time of the examination - the maximum score for the major course is 120 points, and the average score must not be less than 108 points. After the first year, he applied for permission to minor in two majors, and after that, he was not stopped because of his grades.

Later, someone learned that his guess of the exam questions was very accurate. It's surprisingly accurate.

It is said that when many students are revising, they will ask him if he will take a certain question. When asked, he would not fail to answer. But it's just "it's possible", "it's unlikely", and "I should be able to take the test".

He said that what may be tested will basically appear on the test paper, and it should be tested, and it will definitely appear. If the test center is unlikely, it will not be tested. But if you ask him what form he will take the test, he will pass it perfunctorily.

Later, he received a title: Zhuang Banxian.

It's just that this Zhuang Banxian didn't have much time to meet people before the exam. It is said that he was busy making money and tutoring high school or junior high school students.

And these people paid him to help with the focus. But this money is also only to pay for the basic business - the focus.

Cui nodded and said, "You continue." ”

"The teachers specially invited by Tianhai are of a very high level, and there is no reason why they can't see this problem. Therefore, I think that more than eighty percent of the essay questions for economics majors this semester will be examined for this topic. ”

Speaking of this, Zhuang said: "Okay, that's the focus of the political economy exam. I'll take my leave. He is going to start another professional business next.

After he finished speaking, he put the book back in a school bag, and another slightly fat young man also stood up to pack his things. The two packed up and left the villa together.

When they left the villa complex, the slightly chubby student spoke: "Wood, this is the last year, don't you want to get two more first-class scholarships?" The money for a first-class scholarship is not as much as you can get. But that's a big benefit for employment after graduation. Will it be more important for you to get more money than to get a job in the future? ”

Zhuang is not actually from this world. And this world is also strange to him. In this world, the history of China has changed a lot. Perhaps this changed in the late Western Han Dynasty. There was no Eastern Han Dynasty behind, and after Xinmang, it was a Chinese Empire. Although the Chinese Empire weakened several times, it also prospered many times, and each time it underwent a transformation. He didn't know if the founding emperor of the Chinese Empire was a traverser, but he was able to introduce mercantilism from the end of the Western Han Dynasty, and died on a woman's belly because of his lustful prime, and finally made the wealthy family the real ruler of the Chinese Empire. If it's not a traverser, it's almost inseparable.

After nearly 2,000 years of development, today's Chinese Empire spans the whole of Asia, with a centralized empire occupying almost two-thirds of Asia. Although the germ of capitalism formed by the mercantilism of the Chinese Empire has experienced many twists and turns, it has also allowed the Chinese Empire to stand tall. The impact on the whole world is very large. It's just that the internal contradictions are not small, and they have experienced many splits and reunifications.

More than 300 years ago, a strong emperor appeared in the Chinese Empire, and in order to suppress the family, he terminated the foreign trade policy, which caused the Chinese Empire to enter civil strife and maintain only formal unity. After more than 150 years of turmoil, an alternative separation of powers was finally formed: the imperial power, the judicial power, and the legislative power.

The imperial power represents the state, and has part of the legislative power, executive power, and part of the military power, and has the judicial power to supervise and restrain the imperial power, and part of the military power. The legislature, which means that the common people have the vast majority of legislative power and oversee the executive and judicial oversight, and controls at least half of the army.

The establishment of this separation of powers allowed the Chinese Empire to enter a period of basic stability for more than 150 years. However, during this period, it has also experienced many ideological changes, and the continuous improvement of various ideological movements, this separation of powers, has now penetrated into the hearts of the people of the Chinese Empire.

But perhaps because those changes were from the top down, the Huaxia of this world was very different from the world he was familiar with. There are many thousand-year-old families, and these families control the political and economic lifeline of the entire Chinese Empire.

This slightly chubby student is Zhuang Mutou's roommate and his only friend in school. Tianhai University does not require students to live on campus. There are also several levels of student dormitories. The first is a single apartment, but that number is very small, and the cost is very high, 40,000 yuan a year, so it is usually the preserve of wealthy students.

And the two of them live in a second class double apartment. Everyone has a small room, and the living room, kitchen, and bathroom are shared. It costs 10,000 yuan per person for accommodation every year.

That seems expensive. But the world is only now in the fourth year of the 21st century, but both the economy and technology are already on par with the 20s of the 21st century. And Tianhai is the richest city in the country, and the consumption is very high, if that dormitory-like double apartment is outside, at least each person needs at least one thousand and a half.

"Lao Zhu, do you think they will allow me to take it in the last year after winning the first place so many times?"

"Can they still come to Yin?"

"Whether they come or not, I'm not sure. But I can't afford to risk it. Do you think that Cui Hao is really as polite as he seems? He is considered to be the best son of his generation. can stand out in a wealthy family like Cui's, do you think he wants to be as harmless as he seems to be? Zhuang Mutou smiled and said. Besides, it's not like you don't know about me. ”

It is said that Lao Zhu's fellow scholar is not very rich and expensive. But compared to Zhuang Mutou, who was born in a small town in the mountains, it was already between rich children and poor children.

What is particularly important is that this student Zhuang Bifan takes medicine every day like a meal, and the cost of taking medicine a day is at least equivalent to the food expenses of an ordinary student for a week. So he had to work hard to make money.

Zhuang Mutou's classmate, of course, is surnamed Zhuang. However, his real name is Bifan, and the title of wood is one because his surname is Zhuang, and the second is the confession of how many girls with unkempt maternal hair he has refused. The point is that his name is Zhuang Bifan. Thankfully, the world doesn't pretend to be such a thing.

And he was not originally from this world. Or rather, his mind does not belong to this world.

He was supposed to be in a republic, but now it was the Chinese Empire. The emperor is still alive, and the country is more than twice the size of the republic. Compared to the republics of that world, the eastern border to Bering HN occupies more than half of the islands in Southeast Asia, and almost the entire South China Sea has become an inland sea. To the north is bordered by the Arctic Ocean. The western and northern sections are bounded by the Lena River, the middle section crosses the Caspian Sea, and finally the middle line of the Persian Gulf, and the Persian provinces were incorporated into the Chinese Empire 1,200 years ago.

The others didn't need to look to know that the world was not the same as he knew. In fact, he didn't believe in anything going back in time or traveling through existence.

Because he feels that time does not exist. Yes, while the scientist is right, he does not believe that time exists. He believed that time was just an illusion of human beings.

The universe is composed of energy and matter, and it is three-dimensional, front and back, left and right, up and down. However, time, non-energy, non-material, has no carrier.

Of course, he couldn't prove that time didn't exist. But even if time exists, there can be no turning back. Time, no direction. Because even if there is time, the carrier of time can only be the whole universe. The movement of the universe is universal and directionless.

A very simple fact, if the past world has always existed, does that mean that every second will create a new universe? Where does the energy and matter come from?

Well, to say so much is to say that he really doesn't believe that people can have the opportunity to travel to another parallel earth.

But reality gave him a slap in the face with serious consequences. Now he is indeed on a parallel earth.