At night, Gu Zhai. Pen "Fun" Pavilion www.biquge.info

The Sony 48-inch LCD TV in the living room, which just came out this year, was tuned to the Wuyue Satellite TV channel. Sponsor advertisements are being played on the screen, and the primary selection of the third division of the "Girls' Generation" talent show is still ten minutes away.

Gu Cheng plans to support domestic products, but the 04-year-old domestic TV has not yet made this specification, so he can only use Fusang goods with guilt like Wang Xcong.

However, it is not necessarily true to say that there are no domestic products in this at all - at least the set-top box in front of the TV is a domestic product. The factory has just been moved to Xihu Shuyuan in the Xiasha Development Zone.

In the second half of 2003, the Netcom branches of the two first-tier cities of Beijing and Hujiang in China piloted the upgrade of cable TV to digital TV for the first time, and the TV set-top box began to appear in the land of China.

In 2004, the second batch of six cities, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Jinling, Qiantang, Qingdao and Dalian, followed up and further expanded the scope of China's pilot digital television. Then in 05, there will be Fuzhou, Xiamen, gradually rolled out, until 2007 to achieve national digitalization.

All this is not a big deal in the eyes of the people who eat melons, but on the other hand, it has also paved the way for the further popularization and development of online digital video later, and has also allowed more netizens to have one more choice when entering the network - before the emergence of digital television, Netcom was too weak in the face of telecommunications, saying that it was "North Netcom, South Telecom", in fact, it was based on the premise that the early network coverage rate in most areas of the north was much lower than that of the south.

gossip, and said that Gu Cheng and Pan Jieying were sitting on the sofa, ready to study the "Girls' Generation" draft with an academic eye.

Pan Jieying's mood is still a little confused. The words that Gu Cheng said on the bus just now had a great impact on her spirit.

It's not that she still sympathizes with Sun Zhengyi, a Fuso person, but she feels that she has studied MBA for three years in college, and many of the equity operation theories learned in books seem to have collapsed. Although because of her work, she is not diligent in class, and when she was in graduate school, she only went to classes a few times a month, and she basically mixed her diploma.

Gu Cheng knew that his cousin's pedantic spirit needed to be reversed, so he took advantage of the advertisement to enlighten her.

"What is venture capital? Venture capital is actually a compromise that capital has to make in order to pursue its own value-added rate and prevent 'I used to have money, but I can't guarantee that I will always have money in the future' after discovering that there are more and more new factors of production that capital cannot coerce in the new era. ”

"Go back 50 years, or even 40 years, is there such a thing as venture capital in this world? In the traditional era of business investment, investment is secured by real executable wealth. For example, to establish a company, it can be funded with funds, or in kind, or by copyright, patent, trademark brand, and other property that can be pledged/enforced by law. ”

"However, with the development of the times, more and more new elements have emerged that are obviously valuable, but cannot be quantified, mortgaged, or pledged to enforce, and these new elements all belong to intangible assets, but they are not the category of 'intellectual property' that can be enforced under the law.

For example, capital spends money to make a star popular, and the star has the fame of personal attributes, which is valuable and can generate income. But people's reputation cannot be enforced by the law, celebrities hit the street or owe money, and the law cannot force celebrities' fans to become celebrities' creditors. In the past, capital could only use the channel resources of publishing houses and television stations to clamp down on celebrities, rather than on the 'reputation' of celebrities themselves, but with the shattering of channels in the Internet era, there is one less bargaining chip for capital.

Another example is that the number of users of QQ is valuable, which can generate traffic, advertising fees, and expected content consumption potential in the future. However, the number of users cannot be enforced, if one day Tengyun uses QQ's software copyright to mortgage the bank, and then defaults and does not enforce the copyright to the bank, and starts a new product called WeChat, and directs QQ users to WeChat. Then, the bank that got the copyright of QQ will have no choice, he can't ask the court to forcibly force the 'number of users' back to QQ, and point a gun to the heads of netizens to force them to use QQ -- this thing can't be done, which is why China Merchants Bank refused to accept the 'number of registered QQ users' as a mortgage. ”

To use one of the cruelest logic, it is that fans are immoral. They don't dislike an artist because of a product they use or an artist they admire because of their personal morality and ingratitude - at least they don't increase their costs for the sake of morality. Therefore, only those who have mastered the users and fans can do whatever they want.

Just as we know that many things in Tengyun are plagiarized, and the user experience is not much improved from the original, but because you can register a few fewer accounts and remember a few passwords, saving a little memory cost for the brain, everyone will use Tengyun instead.

Just as some software writing popular online articles in later generations were found to be plagiarized by machines, fans will also say strange things such as "You have the face to say that others copy you, why are you not as popular as the person who copied it" in order to reduce the cost of finding a book for themselves.

Just as people have already paid a certain amount of energy cost for chasing stars, even if Kim Taeyeon is anti-China, the person he should like still continues, because it will be more tiring to change idols again, and he needs to re-brew his feelings.

Inconvenience, but also a cost.

Human nature is lazy, after accepting one ideology, to wash out one's mind and accept another again, it is necessary to pay a spiritual cost, not everyone has the strong self-control of the brainwasher in Inception.

And so many people in this world who would rather be cheap than popular have grasped this inertia of human beings. Because they know that as long as they are fried cheaply and let the people who eat melons remember it, the people who eat melons will be too lazy to bother to forget about them.

And cheapness cannot be enforced by the laws of modern commercial society.

Of course, "cheap can't be enforced by law" doesn't mean "only cheap can't be enforced by law".

Although the motive is also "ruthless after eating and wiping off the capital side", Gu Cheng is not cheap.

Spiegel, who created SnapChat, is not cheap.

They are ruthless and ruthless.

They don't have to use cheap methods to secretly rub benefits from the capital side, but find out the weakness of the capital side like a cow, and cut meat according to the law with open fire.

Spiegel, 8 years after the parallel time and space, used the trick of "If you want the company, take it, I will migrate the users of the predecessor of SnapChat to the products operated by the new company", and left an empty software that had been hollowed out by one of his investment partners in accordance with the law.

If you can't understand it, let's use Ma Teng to assume that for example: this kind of style is equivalent to Ma Teng saying to Zhang Zhidong: "Don't you want QQ? But it's a QQ with 0 users. Brother copy a line of code is not repeated with QQ.、But poach all QQ users of the new software to play by yourself.。 ”

What Gu Cheng wants to do is similar.

Sun Zhengyi If you really want to take it, you can take it, but I believe that the paying users who have paid for the various games of Legend Entertainment will definitely not follow you Sun Zhengyi to continue to be slaughtered in new games after the decline of the legendary game.

Brother is confident that he will pull these 20 million people back into his hands at once. Even if you still have Alipay's most favored partner treatment.

These 20 million people are not loyal to legendary entertainment, let alone you, Sun Zhengyi.

It's me Gu Cheng.

Brother's name, the ecological environment created by brother, and the group of loyal artists and designers under my brother can make 20 million people follow and chase for money.

And will Sun Zhengyi be alert to this problem?

Hard.

Because in another time and space, there is also the experience of Zuckerberg and Spiegel's partner.

Where did this time and space come from? Xiaozha has been accepted by Gu Cheng, and Spiegel is still in junior high school as a bear child.

Sun Zhengyi can only defy the law and be a good teacher who does not receive a salary for future generations.

No, it's a good teaching aid.

It is said that a few years later, when the business schools of all universities around the world discuss the topic of "why software companies without intergenerational user stickiness in the Internet era are not valuable", Sun Zhengyi will be included in the textbooks for everyone to learn from.

Of course, that's all for later, and none of this has happened yet.

……

Those examples and arguments that were ahead of the times, Gu Cheng couldn't cite them.

So Spiegel and Zack's black history, he can only transplant it all to Ma Teng in an imaginary way, and then teach his cousin a lesson in the way of Black Ma Teng.

"A thousand years ago, when Wang Anshi was engaged in the Qingmiao Law, he borrowed grain for the peasants in the spring famine, repaid the loan in the autumn harvest, and the account period was half a year, what was the interest? If the landlords are allowed to engage in private small loans on their own initiative, the interest rate will be much higher, and it is normal for the interest to be doubled in half a year.

Five hundred years ago, during the Age of Discovery, when Antony, a Venetian merchant, borrowed money from Shylock, a Jew, what was the interest? I don't know the individual cases, but some economic historians have come up with about 30 percent, with an annual interest.

What about the industrial era 200 years ago? What about 100 years ago? Now? If you look at history, you won't be bound by an MBA program. Although capital seems to be very strong, and books teach us that capital is very strong, compared with their peers two hundred years ago and a hundred years ago, in human history, the control of capital over enterprises is getting weaker and weaker, and the rate of return that can be obtained by just investing money in industry is getting lower and lower, so the natural interest rate is also getting lower and lower.

If we compare venture capital to fathers, entrepreneurs and managers to mothers, and businesses to children.

My father is a philanthropist, just like a venture capitalist, in order to reduce the risk of 'if I am a loser in my life, I will not be able to let my heirs become rich for generations', and then give women and children a living allowance. The mother is the only one child, and she must use this settling-in allowance to be responsible for raising the child and educating her as an adult. (Of course, on the issue of venture capital, the "father" can kill the "loser".) Companies that fail to start a business can go bankrupt. ）

But in the end, what do we see when the child becomes a talent? The more advanced science and technology and the more open the world becomes, the stronger the technical barriers, the weaker the capital barriers, and the more valuable the valuable achievements cultivated by capital cannot be enforced by law.

The child's mother can easily take advantage of her own teaching and parenting convenience to transfer these intangible benefits that are not legally required by law, and the child's father will have less and less notarized property when he comes to the door to ask for alimony.

It is impossible to get the main reward of the child's success after only giving a sperm and a settling-in fee, and then not being responsible for teaching and nurturing. Children have a way to teach their fathers who abandoned their wives to be human ......"

The more Gu Cheng's words were spoken, the more shameless they became, which made Pan Jieying blush for a while, and finally raised her eyebrows and couldn't help but refute: "Father can also teach and raise children together, who stipulates that all scumbags are ruthless and leave some money?"

"Of course, the father can also teach and raise together - but in this case, he is not a pure 'scumbag' venture capital who only gives money, maybe he is a co-founder of the fund, or he is an external partner who also gives core irreplaceable resources.

A real venture capitalist needs to face many projects that he has no energy for. Take Sun Zhengyi, for example, he only dared to say to Ahri Baba, 'Hey, your foundation in data service and search is too weak, you need Yahoo Huaxia's cooperation and help'. And when this is translated, the nature is the same as 'you can't hold up alone, and there is a half-brother of yours who can cooperate with you in XXX'. The scumbag who is busy spreading sperm tells his son at most that he has a brother to help, and he will never go out to help in person. ”

Cold!

Insidious!

Vile!

Not people!

To be able to say such a thing and explain the problem with such a crude example!

After listening to Gu Cheng's cold and emotionless analysis, Pan Jieying felt that she had read all the books on the principles of share management capital in her MBA in those years.

In the face of Gu Cheng, an illiterate scholar of economics and management, those classic works have instead become rigid and rigid dogmas that only focus on the current glue and do not recognize the trend of historical progress.

Who let Gu Cheng come from an era when the gains of capital were already extremely weak? Standing on the height of history, he had no difficulty in seeing these truths clearly, just as modern people had no difficulty in seeing primitive people clearly.

"Where do you look at all these things? I think a lot of books have been read in vain in those years. Pan Jieying was very aggrieved in her heart, and she had a sense of powerlessness that she had done a lot of useless work.

"I don't think so, in twenty or thirty years these theories should be written, I just glanced at it casually. ”

Gu Cheng wanted to answer like this, but he couldn't.

Who made him a traverser, this sentence can't be said.

"I think I ...... That's basically it, you won't have any more dry goods. Hey, the third division is the southwest division, isn't this contestant Zhang Hanyun? I seemed to have seen this girl when I came to choose the heroine last time. ”

On the TV, "Girls' Generation" has already started, and Gu Cheng shamelessly changed his topic to avoid being asked questions related to crossing by his cousin.

It's a pity that Pan Jieying was confused in her heart, and she couldn't calm down and listen to the song. When Zhang Hanyun finished singing, she suddenly asked Gu Cheng in surprise:

"No! I always think there's something wrong with what you're saying. Capital gains are gradually declining, although this is the general trend, and I accept your setting for the time being. But according to the theories taught by the professors when I was studying in the MBA, in this process, capital must be unwilling, will struggle, will do everything possible to find new scarce resources and try to monopolize these scarce resources, so as to delay itself from being squeezed out of the circle.

For example, when you say that the printing industry requires a lot of intensive investment, capital can suppress the influence of media creators by investing in printing houses. When the cost of printing fell dramatically and printing resources were less scarce than creative resources, the ability of print capitalists to control content producers began to weaken. But even so, capital can cooperate with power, for example, in China, by monopolizing the number/book number, setting the threshold for publication, artificially creating scarcity, and further clamping down on creators. New scarcities will always emerge. ”

Gu Cheng was speechless for a while.

Can you still listen to the song happily?

Still, he had to respond to his cousin's question: "Artificially creating scarcity? Is capital unwilling to accept declining profits and reduced control? Of course, this kind of thing will happen, but it will not change the general trend of historical evolution." ”

Pan Jieying: "Then do you think that with the rise of new technology, how will the vested interests in the future prevent their wealth from appreciating faster than the rising stars brought about by technological progress? You also said that people who only have money and no resources are easy to be cheated by entrepreneurs and operators in the equity investment of new science and technology talents, and they must always find a way to find a safe place to play, right?"

"Buy a house. ”

Gu Cheng didn't have to think about it.

Does this question still need to go through the brain for future generations?

Pan Jieying was stunned, and did not refute for a long time, and finally she should have come back to her senses, and sighed weakly: "No wonder housing prices have been rising since last year...... Land is indeed an irreplaceable resource that cannot be supplied in large quantities. But at this rate of growth, there will always be a time when there will be more land and houses that can't be sold in a few more years, right?"

"With the total amount of land, capital can artificially create a local scarcity of land in first- and second-tier cities, what do you care? It's only been going up for a year, and you think it's enough? Okay, listen to the song. ”

――

PS: When I was writing this chapter, I discussed it with some book friends. They seem to be very resistant and backlash to the view that "people who only have money and no resources are easy to be cheated by entrepreneurs and operators in the equity investment of technology rookies". I'll just say a few dry words and argue for it.

At that time, they refuted me with the example of "if I bought Tengyun's stock ten years ago and have been investing for a long time, it is definitely better than buying a house, and the capital appreciation rate is higher", proving that even if you only have money, as long as you have the right vision, you will not be thrown away by inflation and CPI. I'll use this example itself to dissect the rebuttal.

Anyone who has seen Tengyun's stock price knows that 06~08, 11~13 is the year when Tengyun's market value skyrocketed, basically doubling in two years. But in '09 and '10, it almost stood still.

Why did they stand still at that time? Because many senior investors who have news and can analyze, after hearing about the WeChat project, feel that Ma Teng is very likely to split WeChat and list it separately, and from then on it will operate as two companies as QQ. So they thought that Tengyun would decline quickly, and many people sold Tengyun's shares at that time, resulting in stagnation in 09 and 10. After 11 years, it was confirmed that the WeChat project was landed, and it was operated within Tengyun, without splitting, and everyone bought Tengyun again, which led to a continued surge.

Because QQ is a technically unthreshold thing, the software itself has been copied out in millions. QQ's value is the user, and the user cannot be tied to the company, or promise that "the company's operator will not dig up the customer relationship to the new company".

With Ma Teng's control, he can direct all QQ users to WeChat, and then he and the founder team of Zhang Zhidong and others only hold 25% of the shares in Tengyun, and the newly split WeChat subsidiary may be able to operate to 60% or even more - then why does he still take Tengyun's remaining 75% of the shareholders who are "so poor that they only have money left" to "take you to pretend to be forced to fly"?

However, MIH and others later stopped Ma Teng's split plan.

Otherwise, today's Tengyun is already an empty shell, and the remaining 75% of Tengyun's holders can only play with the remnants of the PC era - do you think the trick I described is familiar? That's right, the one Spiegel played in 2012. SnapChat is not worth much, the number of SnapChat users is valuable.

Therefore, even if it is a company like Tengyun, only people with money have no brains to hold it for ten years, and it is not necessarily profitable, it is just the luck of history.