Because most of the companies invested by Gu Cheng are not listed, the transparency of their operations naturally cannot be compared with that of listed companies. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info

In the financial reports of the three fiscal years from 05 to 07, laymen can only see the growth of users, the soaring revenue and profits, and the expansion of business, but they cannot see the most quintessential technical layout and progress.

Therefore, in the eyes of laymen, Gu Cheng's main gains in the past two years are only limited to the accumulation of quantity, and there is no depth.

As the undoubted number one giant in the Chinese Internet industry, the eye-catching effect of Gu Cheng's business is naturally second to none.

Although he has not publicly accepted new pure money equity financing in recent years, the melon-eating masses have not been able to calculate the valuation of his company directly. However, countless people in the financial industry who are trying to attract fans and write the official account of Renren's circle of friends will write articles and discussions commenting on and speculating on the valuation of Gu Cheng's industry almost every month.

"Compared with the market value of Tengyun in the Hong Kong stock market, YY Network Technology not only has twice the number of users than QQ, but also has a strong content trading platform, if it is really taken to the market, how can it be worth 60 billion US dollars? ”

"Alipay has 300 million users, and more than 200 million cards are tied, of which 40 million are used by foreigners. Although there is no benchmark peer in China, compared with overseas pioneers such as Peter Thiel, the current market value of Ant Financial is estimated to be nearly 20 billion US dollars. ”

"YY.com plus the independent settlement of YY international version, the valuation of these two overseas businesses, this agency believes that 30 billion US dollars is a more accurate and reasonable price. The reason for the estimation is that it is based on Zuckerberg's FaceChat company, which raised Series C financing at the end of last year.

At present, the total number of users of FaceChat chat software in countries such as the United States and Europe is only more than 30 million, which is far from the opponent of YY International Edition. Although FaceChat successfully cut into the corner last year, from IM instant chat, to the gambling and money track, it has returned to the field of SNS community, and has established a new consulting and sharing business Twitter under its umbrella.

But at present, the number of followers on Twitter is only one-fifth of that of YY.com, and it is extremely dependent on various entertainment gossip and breaking news consultations to provide traffic heat, and has become a gathering place for ***-fetish and voyeur-yin-fetish lovers, completely cutting off the possibility of being an acquaintance to share the community.

To sum up, Zuckerberg's FaceChat company's Series C financing valuation at the beginning of this year was $7.5 billion, so it is reasonable to estimate that Gu Cheng's YY network valuation is $300~$32 billion. ”

"YY electronics is relatively weakest, MP3 products have been sold for 5 years since they were launched in 03, and they have reached the peak of 11 million units in 05 and 06 years, and their sales have been declining last year and this year, and this year it is estimated that there are only more than 7 million. But fortunately, the Kindle launched at the end of 05 has been selling well, and it should be able to climb to 8 million shipments this year, after all, overseas users bought nearly 2 million last year, most of which were bought by Dongyi and Fuso.

Whether YY Electronics can be awesome in the future depends on the mobile phone products planned to be launched this year - Lei Jun wants to make a new system of mobile phones, and this rumor has been blowing for several years. Now that the 3G license has been down for half a year, he is still hungry for marketing, and I don't know if Lei Jun is reliable. Sure enough, it was Gu Cheng who personally instructed and supervised the development of YY Electronics in those years, and Lei Jun was a parallel import. However, in any case, YY Electronics' valuation of billions can still be had, and as long as the mobile phone is not shipped on the street, the valuation of $10 billion should be quite easy. ”

Financial articles such as these can be seen on Sina's blog every month, or on the official account of Renren.com, and there is no shortage of discussants in YY Tieba.

In general, a lot of the analysis is still decent and quite dry.

In another time and space, the market value of Tengyun Company at the end of 08 was also about 45 billion, and it was less than 30 billion at the beginning of 08.

COINCIDENTALLY, FACEBOOK IN THAT TIME AND SPACE ROUGHLY BROKE THROUGH THE $40 BILLION VALUATION MARK IN 08, BUT CONSIDERING THAT FACEBOOK ONLY TOOK 5 YEARS TO COMPLETE THE PATH THAT TENGYUN TOOK 10 YEARS TO WALK IN THAT PERIOD OF HISTORY, IT CAN BE SEEN THAT ZACK'S GROWTH RATE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT OF MATTENG.

Nowadays, due to the acceleration of domestic mobile Internet infrastructure in advance, the user scale of YY is obviously more than that of QQ at the end of that year. In addition, the occupation of YY network technology in domestic music/book e-commerce, online games, online literature, video and other industries is not comparable to QQ in the same period in history. Therefore, the domestic part of YY is estimated at 60 billion US dollars, which is definitely convincing to everyone.

In the overseas business part, because of the obstacles to the operation of Huaxia Capital and the cultural identity of the Chinese people, Gu Cheng's YY network is not as developed as FACEBOOK in parallel time and space, but at least it can beat FaceChat in this time and space. The capital market values it at $30 billion, which is also considered a decent situation.

According to the algorithm of these "dry goods" articles, in the business directly controlled by Gu Cheng, 56 billion YY network, plus 29 billion overseas business, 17 billion Ant Financial, and 8 billion YY Electronics, the cumulative valuation is 110 billion US dollars.

After years of resource integration, although Gu Cheng did not let the company go public, nor did he take hot money from big dogs who only had money and no resources, there was still a need for the necessary strategic allies to take shares. Therefore, the shareholding ratio of Gu Cheng and his family in these companies has decreased compared with 05.

Among these self-owned businesses, Gu Cheng's lowest shareholding ratio is YY.com, and the combined share capital of him and Pan Jieying has fallen below the red line of 40%, and is currently maintained at 35%.

Peter Thiel, the second largest shareholder, increased his capital slightly to 22% after chasing money several times. He has also brought in several external investors of the PayPal-MAFIA system in the past few years of development, all of whom have entered the market with important traffic resources, and these investors have accumulated 9%.

The management share capital of YY.com, including performance reward shares and internal price subscription shares, also adds up to 32% - Li Ying owns 12%, Saverin and other senior executives who joined halfway together own 14%, and another 8% are ordinary middle-level management cadres and veteran senior employees.

The reason why we have to let a large number of foreign investors share profits and give high management shares is mainly because it is indeed difficult for social networks with Chinese background to expand in the mainstream ideological societies of Europe and the United States. Moreover, Gu Cheng is also the least attentive to the operation of YY.com, basically only being a major shareholder and not doing anything, and completely throwing off the posture of the shopkeeper. In order for employees and executives to make the company from a valuation of 5 billion to nearly 30 billion in two and a half years, it is natural to give a huge amount of incentives.

In contrast, Gu Cheng's shareholding in domestic businesses is much higher - in YY Network Technology, Gu Cheng and Pan Jieying together have always maintained a total of 51%, and in Ant Financial it is as high as 63%. Even if Lei Jun leads and is quite independent YY Electronics, Gu Cheng has 42%. Compared with two years ago, Gu Cheng's equity is about 20% more diluted.

After careful analysis and squeezing out the water, Gu Cheng has about $50 billion in valuation assets in these businesses under his direct control - if these companies can be officially listed, with this money alone, he is already in the top 10 of the world's richest list and the richest man in Asia.

It's a pity that both Forbes and Hurun Wealth List do not recognize the wealth algorithm of "valuation of non-listed companies". Billionaires who hold shares in unlisted companies can only be listed by valuing the actual tangible assets of these companies and intangible assets that can withstand GAAP accounting rules.

Under normal circumstances, such a compression, the difference of three or four times is light -- this is not surprising, not to mention Internet companies in history, even if it is a real, the most "industrial" real estate company that deals with "moving bricks" every day, whether it is Wang Xlin's Wanda or Xu Xyin's Evergrande, after being delisted from the Hong Kong stock market and returning to the mainland for listing, basically the market value can skyrocket to two and a half times the original value.

Therefore, after Wang Xlin changed the sky in 2013, he hurriedly delisted Wanda from the Hong Kong stock market and re-listed it in the mainland in 14 years, and became the richest man in an instant. In 2017, Xu Xyin would rather bear an impairment loss of 7 billion yuan and sell 14% of Vanke shares to Shenzhen Railway (36 billion to buy and 29 billion to sell) in exchange for Shenzhen Fang's A-share shell, so as to return to the mainland from Hong Kong stocks for re-listing.

The valuation of the same company can vary several times between different stock markets, let alone unlisted companies.

Therefore, Forbes and Hurun, which are known for their "rigorous" lists, only estimate Gu Cheng's assets at most at about $15 billion when calculating his wealth on the list.

If you follow this data, Gu Cheng can't even do Li Ka-shing, what kind of richest man in Asia can you talk about?

Li Ka-shing in 08 still has more than 20 billion US dollars in bright assets.

However, what Gu Cheng has in his hands is not just the business he controls.

He also has about 30% of Huang Yi's shares (YY Entertainment holds 60% of Huang Yi's shares, but Gu Cheng only has about half of the shares in YY, so it is 30% after indirect conversion), and 18% of Ahri Baba shares (historically, Ahri has increased its capital many times and diluted it by about 25%, and Ma Feng himself has also diluted it to 16%), 5% Baidu shares, and 20% ADSENSE shares.

In addition to Huang Yi's company has been delisted, Ahri is still listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a market value of nearly $30 billion. Baidu is a serious NASDAQ listed company, with a market value of more than 50 billion in 08, which is several percent larger than Tengyun and Ahri.

"Gu Cheng's shares in Huang Yi are worth about $3.5 billion, Ahri's shares are about $5.5 billion, and Baidu and ADSENSE have a total of 3 billion shares, and some of the assets that can be directly cashed out are worth $12 billion. ”

As a result, even the most conservative wealth evaluation ranking has to add this 12 billion to the real thing.

When Forbes magazine made the list, it very "conservatively" assessed Gu Cheng's total assets to about $28 billion -- more than Li Ka-shing's book wealth of $24 billion, and he is the richest man in Asia. On the global wealth rankings, it can barely squeeze into more than 20.

However, if the statistics are based on the "family", Gu Cheng can still only rank second in Asia, and there is still a certain gap with the Samsung Li family, which has a family holding market value of nearly 60 billion (about 30% of the shares of Samsung Group are owned by the Li family, and Samsung's total market value at that time was about 200 billion US dollars)

Of course, that vote of the Middle Eastern royal family cannot be counted.

There are hundreds of royal family members who are not separated, and they often control the oil resources of a country, and each royal family adds up to at least 100 billion US dollars. (The Abu Dhabi consortium in the United Arab Emirates, $500 billion, controlled by the royal family, and Saudi Arabia's Aramco oil is valued at $2 trillion, but it is also not listed, so it is an invisible rich, and the Saudi royal family controls more than half.) ）

Gu Cheng's money can only be regarded as more than enough.