In addition to business issues that require collective decision-making, the annual meeting of the Huayin Consortium usually includes some basic economic issues and lectures, which are mainly undertaken by the Asia-Pacific Economic Research Institute led by Professor Ma Guangyuan. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

The agenda of the second day of the second annual meeting in 2006 was originally to discuss the transfer of chips, panels, and storage, and the three major IT basic technology industries.

This time, the economic topic is "Comprehensive Comparison and Forecast of Global and Chinese Manufacturing Costs".

Industrial production can be divided into two categories according to the difference in production methods, one is process industry and the other is discrete industry.

The process industry refers to the continuous supply and output of raw materials and products, that is, the production machinery runs continuously once it is turned on, cannot be shut down casually, and requires few manual steps, such as power plants, fertilizer plants, chemical fiber plants, oil refineries, etc.

The process industry is a typical capital-intensive industry, and the key to determining the cost is the price of raw materials and energy, and the efficiency and yield rate of the life process will be different, but the impact on the cost is very small.

Discrete industry refers to the fact that raw materials and products can be produced independently in separate forms, and the process of life can be interrupted, such as automobiles, home appliances, toys, and mobile phones.

The so-called Made in China is overwhelmingly discrete industrial products, but behind these products is the process industry, or the heavy chemical industry and raw material industry.

In fact, in the late 90s, there were both complete process industries and complete discrete industrial countries in the world, and in fact only China was left - thanks to the theory of global free trade and division of labor.

Discrete industry is a typical labor-intensive industry, the key to determine the cost is labor cost, from the late 90s, with the progress of the IT industry, the main development direction of the global discrete industry is to replace manpower with automated machines - the average cost of the global discrete industry is from the 70s of the last century to the present low-end labor cost, through the price of automation equipment into high-end labor costs, that is, the labor cost of R&D personnel required to design and manufacture high-end automation equipment.

To put it simply, the comparative advantage of global manufacturing costs, the process industry depends on the price of raw materials and energy, which has not changed, while the cost of discrete industry is gradually determined by the cost of research and development of automation equipment.

To put it more simply, China is likely to be the last traditional manufacturing power in the history of modern industrial development, and since the beginning of the 21st century, the traditional theory of global free trade and international industrial division of labor has ushered in a disintegration and renewal.

From the beginning of the 21st century, whichever country has low R&D costs, which country has low labor costs, and which country can create more industrial output.

This is a very important change.

According to the Asia-Pacific Economic Research Institute, the proportion of robots per 10,000 industrial workers in the world's major industrial countries is 272 in South Korea, 210 in Japan, 193 in Germany, 75 in the United States, and 8 in China.

This is the main economic growth space for Korean industry in the next 10 and 20 years, using industrial robots to reduce labor costs in discrete industries.

The pattern of the four giants of the global industrial robot industry has been formed, Japan's Fanuc, Yaskawa Electric, Germany's KUKA, Sweden's ABB, and Huateng Intelligent Machinery Technology Co., Ltd. have sprung up in the past three years, and the negotiations on the acquisition of KUKA by the Huayin consortium through the British Phoenix Capital Group have also come to an end.

From the perspective of the proportion of scientific research investment, the scale of scientific research investment and the number of patents of Huateng Intelligent Machinery Company in the past two years are rapidly surpassing other companies and approaching the Big Four, but judging from the sales volume, it is expected that it will be difficult to surpass the Big Four before 2010.

The problem of South Korea's industry at this stage is that due to the lack of scientific research investment in related fields, the industrial robot market is basically monopolized by Japan's Fanuc, while Japan's domestic market is equally divided by Fanuc and Yaskawa Electric.

The average hourly wage in the six provinces of East China, Jianghuai Province, is $1.37, Jiangxi Province is $1.43, Huzhou is $2.7, Zhejiang Province is $1.8, and Jiangnan Province is $2.1.

Among the world's major industrial powers, Germany has the highest average hourly wage at $48.1, the United States at $37.2, Japan at $27 and South Korea at $15.5.

In terms of total labor force, the total labor force in Germany is 44 million, the labor force in South Korea is only 26.4 million, China's Jianghuai Province alone has 42 million, and the labor force in Shandong, Henan and Guangdong provinces is more than 65 million.

According to the comprehensive evaluation, the relative cost-effectiveness ratio of industrial investment in Shandong Province is the highest, whether it is raw materials or transportation, the basic cost is comparable to that of Guangdong Province, the labor cost is half lower, and the number of labor supply is also relatively abundant.

Professor Ma Guangyuan spent a morning explaining this topic done by the Asia-Pacific Economic Research Institute in 2006, and the complete analysis report was more than 100 pages thick, involving the labor cost analysis of more than 40 industries, which was only for the study and reference of the joint partners of the Huayin Consortium.

"Our Economic Research Institute has spent half a year on this topic, and the conclusion is still very simple, in the next 15 years, China's advantages in labor costs and the whole industry chain will still be obvious. Fifteen years later, as long as the advantages of our industrial robot industry gradually rise and reach the average level of Japan and South Korea, coupled with our size, we have basically cut off the road of industrialization or re-industrialization in other countries. Professor Ma Guangyuan spoke for three hours, his mouth was dry, and he drank a whole bottle of mineral water, and when he finally gave this conclusion, he was still quite domineering.

"As for our report, last month, President Jiang just sent it to the central government, and made a speech within the economic and industrial reform group, and a leader asked a very direct question, that is, the economic comparison between China and India. Our Dean Jiang's answer is still very clear, unless we go to production capacity and de-industrialization, unless India withdraws from the WTO, otherwise in 30 years, India has no possibility of industrialization, because the global market is so big, with the popularization of intelligent robots, the industrial output value of a single high-quality labor force will be higher and higher, and the total number of industrial workers needed worldwide may not exceed 200 million by 2015, and the goods produced by these 200 million workers are basically enough for global consumption. ”

"After we talk about India, and then talk about ASEAN and Latin America, in fact, there is no room for industrialization, we are talking about industrialization, not one factory, two factories, but a country has a relatively complete industrial system, and the industrial output value has reached more than 1/3 of the scale of the national economy. ”

"So, if you have confidence in our institute, you should try to avoid investing in manufacturing overseas, because there is not much future to speak of. Let's take an example, Vietnam has a large labor force, more than 50 million people, and the overall quality is also good, but it is very unlikely that this country will want to industrialize after us. This is even less likely, especially after the signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. ”

"Even if we don't talk about the problem of labor, talk about history, China's industrialization efforts, in fact, have been working hard since the beginning of the last century, there was a short period of development in the 30s of the last century, to the Japanese colonization of Northeast China, and then to the Soviet Union's aid after the founding of the People's Republic of China and the comprehensive reform and opening up in the 90s, after 70 years of struggle to achieve the current level of industrialization. Even so, it may take another 30 years to surpass Japan and South Korea on an average level. If India and ASEAN countries and regions want to industrialize, even if it is very smooth from the present point on, I am afraid that it will take more than 50 years to succeed? Not to mention that with China in the way, how can their industrialization process go smoothly?"

Professor Ma took a sip of hot tea, his sitting posture was not very elegant, quite casual, after all, all the bigwigs here were all co-partners of the Huayin Consortium, not leaders.

This is a special advantage of the Huayin Consortium, which can see the industrial research and economic reports that the various administrative departments in the capital can also get, and see, basically the same group of experts and scholars in industrial economics.

Even if an expert and scholar do not have direct contact with the Huayin Foundation, through the internal exchanges between the Asia-Pacific Economic Research Institute, Lao Jiang, Professor Ma and the other party, they can still bring the other party's papers and opinions for the internal reference of the consortium.

Jiang Ningyuan had been listening to the report all morning, although he had already studied this report many times, and finally spoke up at this time to make a summary for Ma Guangyuan, " The report of the research institute basically has three conclusions: first, in the next 20 years, China will be the country with the lowest labor cost for scientific research in the world, no one; second, in the next 20 years, China will be the country with the largest industrial robot market; third, if our prediction is not wrong, China's industrialization process has basically blocked the possibility of industrialization in other countries, and is still constantly disintegrating the industrial advantages of developed countries. Therefore, China's economic development to a certain extent, maybe within ten years, maybe ten years later, the global economy will usher in a difficult stage of turbulence and stagnation. The reason is very simple, we have snatched all the industrial jobs of the developed countries in Europe and the United States, and India and ASEAN have not been able to grab our industrial jobs. This means that the developed countries in Europe and the United States will usher in a period of stagnation for a long time, except for China, other emerging countries will not be able to develop, so the global economy is not optimistic in the next ten years, or even twenty years. ”

Xu Teng was also silent all morning, listening to the two professors talk about economic issues, and I don't know if these academic views of Lao Jiang and Ma Guangyuan were inspired by some of Mr. Xu's "ideas".

In any case, Xu Teng still admires Lao Jiang, which is basically a prediction of the pattern of the global economy in the next two decades.

"There's still half an hour until lunch!" Lao Jiang looked at his watch and made a proposal, "Let's discuss it freely." ”

"Let me ask a question, Dean Jiang and Professor Ma have just analyzed the economic comparison between China and India and ASEAN, can you talk about the comparison of the economies of China and South Korea?" Chen Daqiao is engaged in the film and television media industry, which has little to do with the industrialization report, and this bigwig is now more worried about the threat of the Korean film and entertainment industry to the Shenzhou Media Group.

"South Korea's economy, you don't have to worry too much about it, its total population, including its resources and capital level, determines a lot of things, and it is now the upper limit of the South Korean economy, as long as we have two or three provinces to reach the level of South Korea's economy, it basically has nothing to eat. ”

Lao Jiang is still very confident in what he said, "At the public level, we can't say it too badly, behind closed doors, let's say it bluntly, when China's economic development reaches a certain level, South Korea's industry will suffer a catastrophe." In particular, the existence of our Huayin consortium will theoretically accelerate this process. This is not to say that South Korea will become a poor country, but that South Korea will have to deindustrialize and move towards the service industry and the financial sector. The process of deindustrialization in South Korea may or may not go smoothly, which depends on whether our Huayin Consortium can defeat Samsung and Hyundai in ten or twenty years, assuming that because of the rapid rise of the Huayin Consortium, Samsung and Hyundai go bankrupt, then South Korea is destined to experience a very tragic turbulent period on the road to deindustrialization. Because these industrialized consortia in South Korea are the parachutes of South Korea's economic transformation, and early bankruptcy means that we have cut off other people's parachutes. ”

"Daqiao must hope that we will quickly cut off other people's parachutes, the Korean entertainment industry has been really strong in recent years, and the market impact on Shenzhou Media is very strong. Liang Weigen still knows Chen Daqiao's mood very well, in a word.

"South Korea's film industry is not terrible, only a few high-quality products can be introduced into China a year, and the box office is also very poor, the key is its TV series, which has a great impact on the domestic TV drama industry, including the entire Hallyu in cosmetics, clothing, and culture. Chen Daqiao discussed with Xu Teng last year that he wanted to absorb some of the advantages of the Korean TV drama industry and promote Shenzhou Media to get close to the Hallyu model, but Xu Teng vetoed it.

At this time, Chen Daqiao is playing the same old tune.

"This is temporary, and it is useless to learn Hallyu, because the main advantage of Hallyu is built on the leading position of South Korea's economy, and if the economic advantage is cut, the trend of young people in China worshipping Hallyu will naturally be curbed. Xu Teng immediately retorted that Shenzhou Media was still not allowed to imitate the Korean model and continue to adhere to the style of domestic TV dramas.

Objectively speaking, because of the existence of Shenzhou Media Group, the number of high-quality movies and TV series in China is still slightly more than in the past.

Shenzhou Media Group will launch five large-scale movies and ten high-quality TV dramas every year, basically dominating the domestic market, and at most one TV series is an idol drama style that follows the Korean Wave model, most of which are typical styles of domestic TV dramas, rural dramas, urban life dramas, war dramas, historical dramas, criminal investigation dramas, spy dramas, martial arts dramas, and fantasy dramas.

Chen Daqiao means that he wants to increase the number of idol dramas to about three per year.

Xu Teng has always disagreed, at most it is one.

This is the annual meeting of the Huayin Consortium.

Even if Chen Daqiao has always had some objections in his heart and took the opportunity of the annual meeting to express it, he will not overemphasize the differences and will not publicly disobey Xu Teng, in fact, he just feels that Xu Teng is too indifferent to Korean pop culture, and is worried that Xu Teng's decision will lead to the gradual loss of market dominance of Shenzhou Media Group.

This is a controversy within the Huateng department, and the co-partners of the consortium present here, except for Chen Daqiao and Xu Teng, are not very familiar with the cultural and entertainment industry.

"I think Korean dramas are good and can be learned. Zhang Liying spoke, but she looked at Xu Ma and said, obviously speaking according to Xu Ma's instructions, "Shenzhou Media Group's investment in TV dramas, on the basis of ten high-quality dramas per year, will be slightly expanded by two, twelve per year, and three or four in the middle are imitation of the structure of Japanese and Korean idol dramas to enhance their dominance and market share in the young market, which should be feasible, right?"

"Really?" Xu Teng couldn't accept it at all, "You want to discuss this topic at the annual meeting? Who of our co-partners here can have time to watch two TV series a year?"

"This topic can be discussed within your Huateng department. "Mr. Xu knows what Xu Ma and Zhang Liying think, Xu Ma has basically been semi-retired in recent years, but she often has time to watch TV series, and basically only watches Korean dramas.

"Blue Life and Death Love", "Love Hotel", "Da Changjin" ...... Korean dramas have indeed had several very good masterpieces in the past two years.

Xu Teng was very angry, he suspected that Chen Daqiao had talked to Xu Ma about this matter in private, and hoped that Xu Ma would say a few words for Shenzhou Media Group.

No one present dared to discuss it anymore, and Xu Ma did not speak, the film and television media industry of the Huayin Consortium was once controlled by Xu Ma, but in the past few years, it has been completely led by Xu Teng and Chen Daqiao, and the general policy and business principles are basically Xu Teng's decision-making.

In fact, Xu Teng and Chen Daqiao's goals are the same, they both hope to resist the erosion of the Korean Wave in the domestic film and television drama market, in addition to lobbying radio and television to shrink the broadcast policy of overseas dramas, and directly curb the Korean Wave from the policy perspective, they are also effectively competing in the layout of film and television products.

Xu Teng's idea is to continue to carry forward his own advantages and style, Chen Daqiao has been implementing Xu Teng's strategy for the past two years, and the effect does not seem to be very good, every time he re-discusses this matter with Xu Teng, he has not been paid attention to by Xu Teng, so he has to take the opportunity of the annual meeting to expand the scope of discussion.

In any case, Chen Daqiao is also the chairman of Shenzhou Media Group, the most powerful media predator in China, not Xu Teng's follower.

It was only at this moment that Chen Daqiao chose not to say anything, sent people under the fence, and had to bow his head.

"This matter, you Huateng Department will discuss it slowly, there are still ten minutes until the luncheon, and we will still discuss the issue of industrial competition between China and South Korea. Lao Jiang was also not satisfied with Chen Daqiao and Zhang Liying pulling the topic to the wrong path, looked at his watch, gave Ma Guangyuan a look, and motioned Professor Ma to continue to say a few words and diverge from this matter.

"On the issue of industrial competition and comparative advantage between China and South Korea, then I will say a few more words, from the perspective of the central level of the major policy guidelines, I personally think...... In other words, there is enough policy news on the side of our research institute to confirm that in the next ten years, one of the main directions of the central economic work is to promote the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area. Personally, I expect that between 2010 and 2015, a free trade zone agreement will be reached. In the short term, it is beneficial to the economies of China, Japan and South Korea, and can realize the complementarity of high, medium and low-end industries in the economy, and in the long run, it will definitely be conducive to the smooth deindustrialization of Japan and South Korea, and is conducive to our smooth realization of industrial upgrading, and gradually attract Japanese and South Korean industrial advantages to domestic investment, and gradually incorporate the industrial advantages of Japan and South Korea into the entire scope of China's industrial circle, and achieve counter-control over the Japanese and South Korean economies from the economic level. ”

"In terms of the big picture, this direction is good for the Chinese economy, but it may be very bad for the Huayin consortium, because our goal is to gradually dismantle the industrial advantages of Japan and South Korea in the next two decades or so. Professor Ma flipped through his pbook tablet and retrieved the relevant information report, which was displayed on the projector.

"Therefore, we now have an important topic that needs to be discussed today, which is much more important than the issue of the Korean Wave just now, the issue of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Zone, should we Huayin Consortium actively cooperate and promote, or find a way to dissuade it?" Lao Jiang took off his reading glasses, wiped them with a soft mirror cloth, looked at everyone, and hoped that everyone would not diverge from the topic and discuss this more important issue together.

Since 2001, Huayin Consortium has determined the decision to compete with Japan and South Korea industries in an all-round way, and has invested more than 100 billion yuan so far, investing in BOE, SMIC and Langke Storage in 2001, Hengqin Industrial Park in 2002, Industry 3.0 Strategy and Yongtai Chemical Group in 2003, Huateng Automobile and Sino Soar Auto Parts in 2004, and reorganizing Shenzhou Electric Appliance Group and Huateng Heavy Industry Group.

In 2005, the new investment in the three major industries of panel, chip and storage reached 40 billion, and the panel industry accounted for 1/2.

If Xu Teng's investment in new energy, intelligent machinery, smart phones, tablet computers, and servers in Huateng is accounted for, the investment scale of the entire Huayin consortium in Industry 3.0 exceeds 150 billion.

Once such a large investment is launched, how big will it be on the Huayin consortium once the China-Japan-Korea FTA is launched?

"Can you dissuade him?" Liang Weigen was a little worried, the Huateng Heavy Industry Group he was responsible for, the biggest competitors in China were the three giants of Japan's construction machinery industry, and the emerging South Korean Doosan Heavy Industries.

During this time, in order to expand the turnover of Huateng Heavy Industry Group, he was also discussing with Xu Teng through mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises, and quickly intervened in machine tools, especially in the CNC machine tool industry.

In particular, South Korea's machine tool giants Doosan Heavy Industries and Viva Group are basically similar to China's machine tool industry, and they all take price advantage as the main growth driver.

South Korea is regarded as a high-tech country at home, which is definitely the situation caused by the domestic media's admiration of foreign countries, which has raised South Korea's national image for no reason, in fact, China and South Korea are almost at the same level, and South Korea is slightly ahead in some industries.

In layman's terms, the core of Chinese and Korean industries are Japanese and German components, and the most technical products and accessories come from Japan and Germany.

The main equipment of South Korea's shipbuilding industry is either German or Japanese, and there are not many self-produced shipbuilding equipment, which is not as good as China, and the equipment suppliers of South Korea's automobile industry and electronics industry are also generally from Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan.

"It must be dissuaded, not that we want to dissuade, several leaders at the central level are still very concerned about the China Industry 3.0 plan launched by the Huayin Consortium in recent years, appreciative, and willing to give us a little more time. "Lao Jiang has been attending economic meetings at the central level in the capital recently, and he is very familiar with the relevant situation.

The reason why this year's second annual meeting will be held in September is because Lao Jiang has time this week, and he will return to the capital for a meeting in mid-September, and it is expected to be busy until November.

"In other words, the central government will definitely push forward the negotiation of the China-Japan-South Korea FTA, and all we can do is try our best to buy time and strive for the protection period of related industries. Of course, Xu Teng knows that in the end, only the China-South Korea FTA agreement has been negotiated, and the time is very late, if the agreement is reached ten years later, the impact on the Huayin consortium will be minimal.

Unless the South Korean side feels urgent, especially the consortiums such as Samsung and Hyundai, they will accelerate the narrowing of the technological gap between them and accelerate the pressure on the South Korean government to actively reach an agreement.

If Samsung asks the government to speed up the agreement, the Huayin consortium will definitely ask the central government to delay the agreement.

Time is of the essence.

Huayin Consortium invests so much money, it will take at least ten years of development cycle and protection policies, including tax rebates, including scientific research subsidies, tariffs and other issues, if Samsung Group gets the treatment of quasi-national enterprises in China and greatly increases investment in China, the impact on Huayin Consortium is very bad.

"If you want to find a way to dissuade you, you must be cautious, you can't be a scoundrel, and you have to work hard!" Mr. Xu looked serious and said a very high-end sentence, "Country, country, only with a country can there be a home." If the China-Japan-South Korea FTA agreement is ultimately conducive to the expansion of investment by Japanese and South Korean enterprises in China and the de-industrialization of Japan and South Korea, then it must be supported, we must work hard ourselves, there is nothing to be afraid of, please come in, play at close range, who lives and who dies, it depends on us. ”

Oops?

Xu Teng couldn't help but look at Mr. Xu, and felt that he was going to be impressed again, Mr. Xu was really getting more and more high-end!

Of course, he knows, and Mr. Xu must also know, that the China-Japan Free Trade Zone is a matter of no spectrum, and the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone will not be reached until ten years, and the specific terms and conditions of the agreement game have not yet begun.

As long as this wave of A-share strategy is completed, the Huayin consortium will make a lot of profits, and even if the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone is reached, there is nothing to fear for the Huayin consortium, but Samsung Group is in danger.

The enemy can come, I can go.

Once Samsung and Hyundai are defeated by the Huayin consortium, the de-industrialization of the Korean economy will have to be accelerated.

What is a free trade zone, isn't it to cooperate with each other and hurt each other at the same time?

The competitive industry competition between the two sides is running-in, and in the end, it is still unknown who will die! )