Yuan Qidong retorted: "Although I don't know what method you are using now, I have also read a few of the books you said, and they are of no great use." Pen & Fun & Pavilion www.biquge.info are some empirical things, such as Yang House Feng Shui said, there is a shelter in front of the house, it is unlucky, easy to absorb defeat, in fact, this is a psychological hint, if there is always something in front of you to block the view, can you be comfortable. After a long time, I will be anxious. Besides, now you live in a building, and people are still and pee on the top of your head, why doesn't anyone say that feng shui is bad. There are also those who look at the face, saying that the seal hall is dark, in fact..."

Lao Dao hurriedly interrupted the conversation and defended: "I mean, these metaphysical books can't be generalized. There is a category that is very mysterious, it is incomprehensible to people, there is no reason, only the conclusion, the conclusion is still vague, or it is blocked at both ends, no matter how you understand it, this kind of book should be burned. The other is to speculate empirically, which is still a bit marginal, and there are things worth learning from, and my model is similar to this method, but more advanced. Moreover, I am now working on a new method, which is specifically designed to measure people, and the accuracy rate is much higher, do you want to try it? ”

"Then did you predict that Li Tiantian would be beaten today?" Guan Tianxia asked with great interest.

"Not so accurately. What I predicted was Li Beijing..."

Lao Dao looked left and right, like a thief, and said: "Actually, I predicted three months ago that Li Beijing would be investigated from next Wednesday to Friday, and the principal would not be able to do it, and he would go in soon, so Lao Dao I am so concerned about Li Tiantian's current situation, and his son is likely to have a major impact on him."

This time, I chose a total of 10 subjects for my doctoral dissertation, and the other nine have been proven to fail in predictions, leaving only this one, if it is not successful, it will be a 100% failure rate, and then the thesis can be ignited. After the former said it, he was a little frustrated.

Yuan Qidong returned the paper to Lao Dao and said, "The former former Taoist is really telling the truth. But I think the topic you chose is too difficult. I don't think it's theoretically possible to predict exactly what will happen to someone at a certain time in the future, unless it's pre-arranged. ”

Maeko: "I don't agree with you, I used to predict a lot of things very accurately, well, with an accuracy rate of 20%. ”

Yuan Qidong: "Dao Chief, you are an honest man, and you don't brag. I ask you, what are the chances of a positive look if you predict a coin toss? ”

Maeko: "Fifty percent, of course. ”

Yuan Qidong: "Well, it's not the slightest possibility that the coin will appear upright, you're right." Your prediction accuracy has suddenly increased by 30%. ”

Qianqianzi snorted and said, "I understand what you mean, predicting simple events will have a much higher accuracy rate." I know. I know that my prediction this time is much more difficult, three months ago predicted that something would happen in two days, it is indeed very difficult, but I calculated that there is at least a 10% chance that I will choose 10 research subjects, and at least one will predict successfully. ”

Yuan Qidong: "Actually, I was teasing you just now, if your prediction accuracy is equal to the probability, do you know what that means?" ”

Maeko: "What? ”

Yuan Qidong: "It means that your accuracy rate is zero, because even if you don't predict, he will happen with that probability." Let's put it this way, you just gave an example of the weather forecast, if a place is going to rain one day every ten days during the season, and you predict that there will be a 90% chance that it will not rain tomorrow, do you think your prediction is useful? ”

Maeko didn't speak, and stroked his beard desperately. This kid is so arrogant that he viciously said that the accuracy of his prediction is zero, and he is still eloquent.

Yuan Qidong: "It is important to know that there are only a few factors that can affect a large range of weather conditions, and they are all very macro factors, which are not easy to be changed by other factors. Moreover, we have meteorological satellites, real-time monitoring, and a large amount of meteorological data as a basis, so we can predict the weather conditions in the last one or two days relatively accurately. If you were to predict whether it would rain in your yard one day in three months, do you know how difficult it would be? ”

Maeko shook her head.

Yuan Qidong: "Have you ever heard of the butterfly effect?" ”

Maeko nodded and said, "A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas a month later." ”

Yuan Qidong: "Yes. The butterfly effect refers to a chaotic phenomenon in a dynamic system, where a small change in the initial conditions can bring about a long-term huge chain reaction of the whole system. It was proposed in 1963 by a meteorologist named Edward Lorenz who developed a program to simulate climate change and discovered this effect. ”

Maeko: "To be honest, the prototype of my model was this program, but it has been improved countless times. This time, I upgraded it again in order to make accurate predictions, and although the accuracy rate has decreased, it is not as unpredictable as you said, right? ”

Yuan Qidong: "There are too many influencing factors, and the amount of information that needs to be predicted is too huge. The difference between predicting a person's future and predicting the weather is very large. There are many more factors that affect a person's future than the weather, and they are very easy to change, for example, if we go out and fall a branch on the head, our plans will be changed, we will have to go to the hospital, or we will not pay attention, we will step on a dog arrow, and we will have to go home and change our shoes.

Another point is that humans are too complex, structurally 10,000 times more complex than the structure of a star galaxy, made up of tens of billions of cells. The human brain can form an image of the outside world, make judgments, and influence the external world through its own behavior, which still does not follow the laws of nature. For example, when we go out, we don't have a branch to hit our heads, and we don't step on a dog's arrow, just a thought flashes in our minds, and we may go home again.

I did some mental math, if I take into account the larger influencing factors, to accurately predict what unplanned events will happen to a normal person in one hour, the amount of computation required would require a medium-sized computer to run for ten days. By the time you figure it out, it's time to have happened. ”

Qianqianzi: "Then you say that my model is useless and worthless?" ”

Yuan Qidong: "That's not it, if you don't make accurate predictions, just predict the trend, I think your model is still very useful." ”

Lao Dao couldn't help but praise: "That's right, it's right, it's very right, my paper failed this time, and what you said is the root cause." I'm going to have to improve my model a little bit more when I go back, you say, how can I improve it? ”

Yuan Qidong: "I just took a general look, and I don't think your model has any levels. I don't think it's reasonable for anyone to use this model to calculate, and it should be more targeted. Everybody is in a different social position, and although we believe in the idea that everyone is equal, that's just in terms of personality, and it's good that you can be a humble person and have a noble personality. However, individuals have different abilities and social status, and their influence on the outside world and the results of external influences on them are different, so they should be predicted in a hierarchical manner.

For example, relative to the whole society, most people are equivalent to bacteria and microorganisms, a small number of ants, a small part of cattle and sheep, and a very small number of eagles, lions, tigers and leopards at the top of the food chain. I'm just making an analogy, there's nothing disrespectful to anyone. Although bacteria and microorganisms play an important role in decomposing decaying organic matter, the role of a single bacterium cannot be compared to the impact of a sheep on the outside world. ”

Guan Tianxia: "Brother Qi Dong, I didn't know that the status of sheep was so high." ”

Yuan Qidong: "Of course, this kind of influence is not static, and it is still changing very quickly, if the influence from low to high is divided into ten levels, if an ordinary person with normal ability, suddenly for some reason, formulates a reliable plan and puts it into practice, his influence will increase rapidly, and it should not be a problem to directly cross two or three levels." Similarly, a big man who suddenly becomes disheartened and becomes less enthusiastic about handling the task at hand, and if he gets by, his influence will drop by several levels in an instant. I guess that's reasonable. This is the influence of the inner environment on the future. In the same way, the external environment also has a huge impact, and people in war-torn places and people in peaceful environments are limited to the exercise of their abilities differently, and they should also be dealt with in a hierarchical manner. ”

Maeko: "What you said makes a lot of sense, I'll think about it." In this way, can we work together? Let's save the world together, you see. ”

Yuan Qidong: "Cooperation? Save the world? ”

Lao Dao: "Yes, yes, yes, I predict that in the near future, there will be a catastrophe in our current world, a very, very huge catastrophe, and the world will become completely different from what it is now. As you said, my model is reliable in predicting big trends. I'm speculating about the cause of the disaster, maybe it's someone, he's a key, he's going to change everything now, completely change. ”

Yuan Qidong had no choice but to cough, he didn't think that a 20% accuracy rate could be called reliable.

The old man's words drew laughter, and this trick has been used for a long time in major cult organizations to amass money and attract followers. If there is no disaster or difficulty, who will worship the Bodhisattva for what?

Guan Tiandao: "Great disaster? Science fiction movies, have you watched too many movies? ”

The old Taoist priest shrugged his shoulders: "You can not believe me, but very, very huge changes are sure to come." ”

Yuan Qi Dongdao was also skeptical of Lao Dao's prediction, and teased him: "You're right, there will be very, very huge changes, and now there are very, very huge changes every day, and today I have a new acne on my face." ”

Lao Dao got angry, hummed and lowered his head to eat his rice noodles, and stopped talking.

Yuan Qidong: "Old Dao, I'm going to tease you." Angry? ”