Chapter 100 Bangkok 6 The afterglow of the setting sun
“…… It may not be possible, but the Thai government will go all out to support the Thai baht and will definitely not allow depreciation! I reiterate once again that the baht will not depreciate and that we will leave those speculators with nothing to lose......"
Chawalit spoke for more than an hour, and for an hour he was all about the history of Thailand and its former glory, and he did not say anything else about the real solution to Thailand's current predicament. Pen ~ Fun ~ Pavilion www.biquge.info Fortunately, the hard work paid off, and an hour later, Soros and others finally heard the punctuality: "...... It may not be possible, but the Thai government will go all out to support the Thai baht and will definitely not allow depreciation! I reiterate once again that the baht will not depreciate and that we will leave those speculators with nothing to lose......"
"Stupid." Soros was accompanying Stanley Jukenmiller, a senior member of the Quantum Fund, and others in his office to watch Chavali's speech, and after getting what he wanted, Soros couldn't help but say something.
Chavali is stupid indeed. Almost everyone was stunned that this "stupid" guy made such an ambiguous statement, and they never expected that the leader of a country would say such something that was close to child's play. Whether this is support or not is not only for those present, but also for anyone who hears him to be confused.
"Stanley, let's continue to increase our positions, and since the Thai government is not giving up the fixed exchange rate, then let's help him make this decision!" Soros slammed the dark conference table and said resolutely.
The atmosphere in the conference room fell into a freeze for a while, and everyone present wanted to get up, stood up, ran to Soros, hugged him fiercely, and kissed him. Increasing their positions is really their appetite, judging from the current strength comparison, they are definitely making money in this dinner, and it is impossible to lose money.
If the Quantum Fund increases its position, then the Thai government will soon realize its troubles in the foreign exchange market, which is likely to prompt them to rethink the feasibility of maintaining a fixed exchange rate system.
Soros and others were actually surprised by the tenacity of the current Thai government, after all, it was not so difficult to snipe the British pound, the euro, the Mexican peso and other battles.
They desperately want the Thai government to abandon the fixed exchange rate as soon as possible, after all, the borrowing rate of borrowed funds is already terrifying, as high as 700%; Second, the future income in Southeast Asia is unknown, according to Soros and other European and American speculators, at most 20%~30%, the billions of dollars that have been invested have cost several months, a few months is enough to circle money in Russia, which is very unworthy.
"George, so how big of a position do we need to open?" Stanley is the most loyal to Soros, and he has a lot of say within the Quantum Fund, because he has always been the money bag of the Quantum Fund, holding tens of billions of dollars in cash, stocks, bonds or unlisted company stocks, bonds and other securities assets.
"Add another $10 billion to your position! How about each of you? Soros didn't even think about it, and gave an answer that was even more unexpected.
Counting leverage, the Quantum Fund has invested more than $30 billion in a total position on the baht, which is a very scary position. If it increases further, it will reach a position of more than 40 billion US dollars, and I can't imagine what it would look like if I was called a margin!
Soros has supreme authority within the Quantum Fund, so when he spoke, almost everyone subconsciously complied.
"Sir, I'm afraid it's not appropriate for this kind of behavior to do so at this time." Just when everyone thought that the overall situation had been decided, suddenly a voice suddenly sounded, attracting the attention of almost everyone, including Soros. The speaker was Rodney Jones, an economist based in Hong Kong, who said: "Thailand's political system is not like what we know it to be, and they have more influence on the banking system than we think." I think there should be no more increases in positions. ”
"Why?" Soros is curious about the meaning of what Rodney Jones said, knowing that as a Yankee, he is very proud in his heart. He doesn't think that the Thai government, those yellow-skinned monkeys, dare to pick on themselves and others.
"Sir, I have been stationed in Asia for many years and know a thing or two about Thai domestic politics. Thailand is not a democracy by nature, and we need to be careful about military politics. The most important thing is that the current Thai Prime Minister Chawalit Yongchaiyu is a full-fledged soldier, and he only stepped down from the position of commander-in-chief of the three armed forces in 1990, and has strong credibility in the military. ”
"Rodney has not spent the past two years in Asia, and it is not easy to have this opinion. However, the position definitely needs to be increased, but the amount is reduced to $5 billion. All right for comments! "Soros is an extremely confident person, even a little paranoid, because he is sensible, so he also needs to listen to the advice of his subordinates," as for the Thai government, I will seek political help from Mr. Robert Edward Rubin. ”
Chawalit Yongchaiyu did not know that he had been shot while lying down, and after his speech, the mood of the Thai people could clearly see that it was much more stable, so the news media sang an ode to Chawalit.
Unfortunately, the good times did not last long, and the next day, on May 12, the Thai baht in the Singapore foreign exchange market that was opening was subjected to a wave of fierce selling. At this time, Liu Si finally decided to enter the market to grab chips.
Historically, the Thai government and European and American speculators will play frantically against each other today and tomorrow morning, with more than $60 billion traded in just one and a half days of trading on Thai baht forward contracts every day.
"Brother Liu, it's time to fish in troubled waters, it's time for us to enter." Liu Si's eyes glowed with gold, as if he had seen countless tickets floating into his pocket, and his face was full of smiles.
"Boss, how many positions are we going to put in this time?" Liu Shengqiang is also very excited, it is the dream of every trader to control billions or tens of billions of dollars of positions, and now it has been realized and is heading towards the sunny road.
"No more than $10 billion!" History can only be used for reference, and cannot be fully trusted, so Liu Si is a little conservative. Of course, the main thing is that they don't want some forces to find out, and the national forces know that they know it, and they can't hide it anyway, but some individual and group forces hope to hide it for as long as they want.
Liu Si hoped that he could grab more chips, but in fact, Liu Shengqiang and many other traders only grabbed a total of $5.3 billion in two days.
In the past two days, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar once exceeded 24 to 1 US dollar, reaching 23.86 to 1 US dollar, but unfortunately after the opening of the afternoon on May 13, the Thai baht exchange rate fell like a rocket, and the closing price was set at 25.42 to 1 baht.
May 14 came belatedly, at least that's what Liu Si thought.
You must know that since the beginning of this year, Liu Si began to order Liu Shengqiang and others to enter the foreign exchange market to grab chips, not only to do secretively, but also to absorb chips as much as possible, which can be regarded as very contradictory.
In five months, Liu Si absorbed a total of $132.8 billion in currency forward positions in Southeast Asian countries. In the past, he was always worried about being liquidated, so Liu Si has stayed in Singapore step by step in the past six months, and even paid no attention to Alibaba, Baidu in China and Blogger, Shopping, ICQ and other properties in his name abroad. Only to use the future network with the help of Goldfinger "Lenovo domestic smart phone" anytime and anywhere to solve the difficulties that are about to be encountered.
Fortunately, history has developed as in previous lives, and there have not been many major changes.
Even if there are no major changes, in order to maintain a position of more than 100 billion US dollars, Liu Si will not wait for a long time to deposit 9 billion US dollars in the prepaid margin account, basically putting all his property into it. To do this, he gave up the opportunity to make money in Russia, and the opportunity to make money on the gold market...... For this reason, he gave up too many opportunities and wealth.
Now, May 14, the turning point has finally arrived. After this point in time, it basically means that Liu Si can withdraw $9 billion from the long-term prepaid margin account and use it to invest in Russian government bonds, stocks, and snipe the New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won...... Wait a minute.
On May 14, Singapore's foreign exchange market was very strange, with a trading volume of only more than 14 billion US dollars throughout the day, which was very different from the hot situation in the previous two days. Many so-called experts and professors have expressed their views and ideas on television programs and newspapers one by one, which can be described as extremely confusing.
Liu Si knew what was going on on May 14, because European and American speculators saw that Thailand was going to fail, and reduced the intensity of their attacks, just like a short-legged man with only a layer of skin hanging on his stump.
The reason for giving up the attack on the Thai baht is very simple, European and American speculators have not yet established forward contract positions in currencies such as the Philippine peso, the Malaysian ringgit, and the Indonesian rupiah, so naturally they cannot detonate the bomb lead right now, anyway, the lead is already in the hands of themselves and others, and when it will be detonated needs to wait for their own preparations.
After the depreciation of the baht, international speculators, who had already made a lot of profits, turned to the rupiah, which then plummeted.
On May 14, 1997, the baht fell to an 11-year low, and on the same day, the rupiah was attacked and began to fall, falling by 3%, and then began a long decline.
As expected, on May 15, Soros, who was on vacation in the United States, issued the first attack order, and the Philippine peso fluctuated abnormally, and the Philippine central bank raised the overnight interest rate twice and fired a bullet of 150 million US dollars, but this bullet was like a drop of rain falling into the sea compared to the attacker's overwhelming artillery attack, and it could not make a wave.
On May 16, the baht fell to a new 10-year low, 26. 75 for 1 dollar.
The Bank of Thailand had to use its last foreign exchange reserves of $4 billion to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
At the same time, it appealed to the central banks of Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and the Bank of Hong Kong, hoping to intervene in the market to support the dying Thai baht. The Bank of Thailand has again raised interest rates sharply, making them attractive to the dollar, and capital outflows have stopped.